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The Adelaide Carnival swings into gear on Monday at Morphettville with a nine race card, highlighted by the Adelaide Cup (3200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres from the 1200m-Winning Post; True for the remainder.

Adelaide Cup 🏆: View the Field for the Adelaide Cup

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Race 1. (13:00) Hit107 (bm78) 2006m

Back Me

6 War Tiger (Bet Now: $2.70) looks the obvious way to go in the opener. Danny O’Brien trains this Team Williams runner, who resumed over 1800m at Sandown when a drifter in betting and somewhat ran accordingly but wasn’t too bad in defeat behind All Hard Wood. Fitter and up to 2000m, in a thin race, he looks the winner with natural progression.

Danger

I think the key threat is 2 Farooq (Bet Now: $2.20). Last couple of runs have come over the mile here, the latest coming last Saturday where he sat back, wide with cover, before being presented into clear and loved the way he went through the gears and was much too good. Like him up to 2000m and is heading in the right direction.

Long Shot

4 Flow Meter (Bet Now: $18.00) lacks the class of some of these, but he is such a beauty for John Hickmott. Rising eleven years of age, Ran over 2400m on the Parks track just over two weeks ago where he ran a rare poor race behind Eperdument, who of course won the Lord Reims seven days later to tick that form off. Back to 2000m I like. First four chance.

Race 2. (13:35) M.m. Adelaide 2yo Classic 1200m

Back Me

8 Rocabella (Bet Now: $4.40) looks very much above average and am keen on her to make a winning debut at Stakes level. The McEvoy stable trains this filly, who trialled a couple of weeks ago on the Parks track and gee I loved the way she moved, leading throughout under a really good hold and looked to have plenty in hand. If she runs up to that trial, plus the one at Oakbank, she wins.

Danger

Up to 1200m looks a big tick for the Team McEvoy filly 5 Bribery (Bet Now: $4.00). Low grade tying up probably beat her two back behind My Ruby before contesting the Cinderella last Saturday and she was a real eye catcher from the back when a closing third. Big tick she gets to 1200m and stable gets Lane to steer.

Long Shot

6 Zeblan (Bet Now: $16.00) is a Will Clarken trained filly that is on the quick back up after spanking them last Sunday at Port Lincoln. Did she beat much? No, but she did cop pressure on speed but booted clear on the turn and really put them away impressively. Harder here, but has the right racing pattern and has hard race fitness/experience.

Race 3. (14:10) Aami Hcp 1200m

Back Me

Looks really good placement by Andrew Noblet when it comes to 2 Hint Of Mint (Bet Now: $2.90). She was far from disgraced two back behind subsequent Typhoon Tracy winner Ms Catherine before going to Pakenham where she was wide no cover for the trip but class came to the fore and she was much too good. Gets a lovely run from the gate and Jamie Kah remains on.

Danger

1 Sansom (Bet Now: $2.00) has found a real purple patch in recent times. Knuckled down strongly to win two back at Pakenham before going to the Zeditave at Caulfield and even Jye McNeil will admit he should have rode a better race in the straight on him. He drifted away from the fence and allowed the eventual winner He’ll Haunt Us to drive through and nab him. Gets the claim for Tom Stockdale, lands on speed and is hard to beat.

Long Shot

4 Bludog (Bet Now: $18.00) does look a progressive three year old for Ryan Balfour. Didn’t handle the wet track at all here on debut before being freshened up and racing on the Parks track a tick over two weeks ago where he got back but really finished off strongly to nab them on the line. Harder here, but I reckon he can fill a first four spot.

Race 4. (14:45) Winning Edge Presentation (72) 1200m

Back Me

Fitter and up to 1200m are two big ticks for the Shayne Cahill trained 8 Two Odd Sox (Bet Now: $7.00). He ran over 1050m here last Saturday when held up for the first half of the straight and should have finished closer when third to Equus D’Oro. That was his first run in five weeks, so you’d like to think there will be plenty of room for improvement.

Danger

6 Kenyan Wonder (Bet Now: $4.80) seems to be racing with a bit more intent in recent times after pretty much racing like a donkey for a period of time. Ran over 1250m on the Parks track just over two weeks ago and should have finished a touch closer behind Lady Bethany, but she had her chance. Sits off a good speed here and is drawn out so gets clear air from the outset.

Long Shot

2 Wanted By All (Bet Now: $18.00) is a son of Wanted for Chris Bieg who had jumped out well prior to resuming over 1050m here last Saturday in the Equus D’Oro race mentioned above and I didn’t mind the way he went despite being a well held fourth. He’ll take good improvement off that and up to 1200m is a definite plus for this gelding.

Race 5. (15:20) Furphy (bm72) 1600m

Back Me

4 Sky Punch (Bet Now: $2.70) looks a key chance. Had a few weeks off after his first up win at Murray Bridge, beating subsequent city winner Ambidazzle. Ran over 1400m on the Parks track a tick over two weeks ago where Cartwright rode a perfect race on the gelding and loomed to win, but couldn’t quite see it through when a close up third to Cosmic Award. Fitter, he’ll take some beating.

Danger

1 Diamonds Are (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Grant Young trained gelding that is racing in super form at the moment. Tough win two back at Gawler before going to the Kangarood Island Cup over 1800m and finishing best from off the pace. Back in trip is the obvious knock, but he’s got good winning form next to his name and will be strong at the end.

Long Shot

11 Busker’s Ballad (Bet Now: $20.00) is bursting to win a race. Might be getting sucked in, but I’m giving I really liked the way he has found the line in the first two runs back from a break, the latest over 1400m on the Parks track a tick over two weeks ago and was a real eye catcher late behind Perfect Command. Forget his run last Wednesday at Murray Bridge because the tempo was that of a barrier trial. Can win this.

Race 6. (16:00) CS Hayes Memorial Cup 1600m

Back Me

Very interesting that 1 Charossa (Bet Now: $6.00) jumps straight to the mile after resuming over 1100m here last Saturday and on face value, he was ordinary behind Tequila Time, but that horse went a tick over 33 for the final 600m, so for Charossa, who is better suited over further, he had no chance. Gets to a suitable trip, soft gate and enormous upside compared to most.

Danger

6 Kardashing (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Maher/Eustace trained mare who has been given a freshen up. Last raced on Feb 1 at Caulfield when controlling things in front but seemed to struggle on the very shifty track when fourth to Paint The Town Two. Given a let up and looked pretty good I thought in a Cranbourne trial on Monday.

Long Shot

7 Gigglon (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Sue Jaensch trained gelding that rises a fair bit in depth/grade, but concede he’s racing well. Impressive win two back over 1200m at Naracoorte before going to 1400m at Ballarat where he chased strongly and was good in defeat when third to Write Your Name. Good record at the mile, does no work from the gate and though WFA isn’t ideal, he can run a positive race.

Race 7. (16:45) Adelaide Cup 3200m

Back Me

You’d think only bad luck will see 4 King Of Leogrance (Bet Now: $2.50) getting beat here. There was a lot of arrogance about his Roy Higgins win last Saturday at Flemington. The slow tempo meant his turn of foot/brilliance came to the fore and he was far too good. He races as if 3200m will be okay if this becomes a proper staying contest. But if it’s a sit/sprint, he’s a $1.50 chance against these.

Danger

It’s really unusual placement by Paul Preusker when it comes to 15 Dark Alley (Bet Now: $7.50). Lightly raced Lucas Cranach gelding that comes here off the back of a low benchmark win over 2000m. He beat nothing, but it was the way that he put them away that was most impressive. He’ll win good races in time. Can he win an Adelaide Cup? If the fav is off his game, then yes.

Long Shot

2 Yogi (Bet Now: $18.00) can be an improver here. Was keen on him running well in the Torney Cup at the Valley but he failed to fire a shot and was really disappointing behind Dabiyr. He does get better as the prep goes on and will be suited at 3200m, a long straight to wind into his work. His best is good enough to measure up.

Race 8. (17:25) Matrice Stakes 1200m

Back Me

6 Beauty (Bet Now: $4.20) is the one with the runs on the board and is hard fit for this race. Tick over two weeks between runs when racing on the Parks track when getting the sweet sit just off the speed before angling wider and finishing off brilliantly to win. She’s looking for more blacktype following on from her win in the Crockett as a 3YO and she gets a golden chance here.

Danger

Want to take a chance with 1 Hard Empire (Bet Now: $10.00). Team Jolly trains this gelding, who hasn’t raced since the Magic Millions Sprint at the Gold Coast when wide no cover and battled away really well in a hot race won by Madam Rouge. Liked the way he closed off in a recent jumpout here and if they press forward, I can see him getting the 1/1 sit.

Long Shot

8 Amberdi (Bet Now: $8.00) is an Ambidexter mare for Sue Jaensch that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since the Let’s Elope during the Spring at Flemington and I thought she ran an absolute beauty in a good race won by the well performed Spanish Whisper. Recent trial win was good and she’s a mare who does fly when fresh.

Race 9. (18:05) G.h. Mumm (bm78) 1050m

Back Me

Looking at this race with Li’l Kontra out. 1 Shamino (Bet Now: $3.80) has done an outstanding job this time in. He’s gone from a 64 horse to winning at this level and who knows, he could find himself at blacktype level before too long. That turn of foot he has will ensure he wins races and he has won his past four in such good style. Continually steps up to the plate and has to be respected again.

Danger

6 Mum’s My Hero (Bet Now: $15.00) hasn’t done much wrong in four runs back from a break for Craig Curtis. He ran over 1000m on the Parks track a tick over two weeks ago when back on the fence and was held up at a crucial stage. Got clear late and worked home strongly to run second. Gets the claim for Jerry Chau and should be clear from the outset.

Long Shot

7 Schilldora (Bet Now: $6.00) is an Artie Schiller mare for Team Jolly that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since the Durbridge during the Spring here when somewhat disappointing behind stablemate Kemalpasa, who of course went on to win on Derby Day at Flemington. Recent jumpout was quiet…her best is clearly good enough. Just want to see what the market does.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 4 King Of Leogrance

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 8 Rocabella

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 1 Charossa

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 6, 7

Leg Two: 4

Leg Three: 1, 6, 7, 8

Leg Four: 1, 6

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