9/12/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Cranbourne

Eight races will be run and won under the lights at Cranbourne this Friday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six for the entire circuit.

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I think 1 Bossa Nova Lad (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can win the opener. He debuted around a month ago over 1400m at Pakenham and while he was never a winning threat, I didn’t mind the way he finished his race off behind New York Hurricane, who went on to be far from disgraced in the Sandown Guineas. On the home deck, up to the mile, he appeals.

6 Artistic Dancer (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has placed in her last three starts and is knocking on the door to break the maiden tag. She tried her guts out at Wangaratta last time when on speed but couldn’t quite finish the job. Should land on speed and prove hard to run down.

3 Downtown Man (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a sneaky chance at a price. He debuted over 1300m and was never a factor behind One Reason, but his late splits were actually quite good for a horse bred to appreciate further, which he gets here, and overall, this isn’t a strong maiden.

5 Annihilate (Bet Now:  $SP.00) was accepted for a couple of races but runs here and with that, he goes on top. Chris Waller trained colt that resumed at Geelong where he started odds on and seemingly had his chance on speed when second, comfortably held. The depth here though is nowhere near as strong and I think he should have them covered if he’s going to be anything decent.

1 Kurolation (Bet Now:  $SP.00) gets the Blinkers on and that might be what he needs to sharpen him up. He ran third in the Leap Year race and seemingly had his chance. Just didn’t have the change up speed to go with the eventual winner. Maps ideally and is the main threat.

2 Oakleigh (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can fill a first four spot. He ran at Geelong last time on a testing track and battled on pretty well in defeat from near the speed when fourth to Apollo Blu. Back on a firmer deck, he can run an improved race.

I think you just have to be with 14 Glass Mountain (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who makes her Australian debut for Nick Ryan. Had two runs in New Zealand and while she didn’t win, she caught the eye each time. Loved the way she responded when asked in a recent Flemington jumpout and she might well have a bit on these even though she looks a 1600m+ type.

13 Rosetown Princess (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Price/Kent trained mare that resumes. She had a two run Winter prep and didn’t fire, but had excuses. Track was too wet on debut before she struggled on the Synthetic. Given a good break and her jumpout work indicates she’s come back well. Watch the market.

6 Cool Heart (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a coming maiden winner. Whether it is here, not sure, but she has talent. Caught the eye very late on debut at Mornington before going to Moe where she worked home strongly from off the speed to finish third. Dangerous if the inside gate is used to advantage.

7 Baekdu (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a daughter of Star Turn that resumes for the Price/Kent camp. She hasn’t raced since the Autumn at Bendigo on testing ground when a game second after sitting near the front. Liked the way she went in a recent jumpout and from gate one, will get every chance.

11 Strapparsi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hard fit and has a good racing style, so she’s right in the mix. Attempted to lead throughout at Bendigo last time and gave a solid kick but couldn’t quite get the job done when a narrow second. If this track is playing up/in, which is every chance of happening, she becomes hard to beat.

3 Niki Frisk (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Pentire for Christopher Diplock that is on debut. He’s bred to be a horse that will appreciate more ground but his recent jumpout work suggests he does have talent, and this isn’t an overly strong maiden, so I’d watch the market and see what it does with him.

How often do we see these horses that take forever to win a race, then once they do win, they do it again soon after. Hoping that is the case with 4 Princess Tina (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who won her maiden last start on Traralgon Cup Day, breaking through at start 26. This is a thin 58 so happy to side with her.

2 Mostly Sunny (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a bit on these if she’s ready to go. Just depends where she is at because she was pretty plain over this track/distance last time out. Tongue tie going on suggests that might be the reason for the last start flop because she is generally a genuine mare who does bust a gut.

3 Oak Island (Bet Now:  $SP.00) creates interest. Formerly with Stirling Osland in NSW, she is having her first run for Charlotte Littlefield. Her last run came on October 10 over the mile at Tamworth where she struggled on the testing track. Bred to be a 2000m+ horse, so may need the run, but she is the one with scope/improvement.

1 Lofty Star (Bet Now:  $SP.00) gets the nod. Unknown at the trip but looks like he will be okay at it after racing over 2000m last time at Mornington, making up good ground from off the speed to finish third. Back to a very moderate 58, in nicely after the claim, the trip is the only thing stopping him being a good thing.

4 Dubai Moon (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been a busy horse in recent months. Had a solid prep in Queensland during the Winter before coming back to Victoria where he has been okay, the latest run being a fourth over 1900m on Traralgon Cup Day, where he seemingly had every chance. Trip is a query but has gate one to offset that.

8 Hogan (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can be a big improver here. He ran over 2200m last Sunday at Bairnsdale where he was near last in the run on a day where you couldn’t make a wide, sweeping run from the back. He did make up ground but was never a threat. Can settle much closer in the run from the good draw and he’ll be fine at the trip.

Think 3 Beagle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can bounce back. He has been freshened up since a November 4 flop at Pakenham where he couldn’t pick his feet up on the heavy track when well behind Thaler, tailed off last. Back on a firmer deck helps his cause and from the gate, he gets every chance to run a much improved race because the efforts prior were good enough to take this out.

4 Celsius Star (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the right form to give this a shake. Ran in a strong race at Moe and condition just gave way late behind Jenniferwish. That form was franked on Wednesday at Sandown with Forbidden City winning. The end of 1200m is a query but the form is A1 for this.

5 Founex (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has home track advantage and upside. Resumed at Moe where the market said he would need the run and despite giving cheek on speed, he felt the pinch late to run fifth. Has the run under the belt now, gets Winkers on, should slide forward and prove hard to get past.

12 Jennivaci (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an improver for the Maher/Eusatce camp. Debuted with a narrow but solid win at Kilmore before being spelled. She then spelled and resumed at Casterton where she was pretty plain to the eye, running up to the significant late market drift. Form out of that race has been hot, won by Accuse, which ensures she’s in the mix.

4 King Of Swing (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a tricky draw to overcome but has a good racing style to offset that. Resumed with a strong win at Echuca before going to Mornington where he seemingly had every chance when fourth. That said, he was five weeks between runs so you’d like to think there is room for improvement.

11 True Patriot (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Nikki Burke trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since mid September at Sandown when down the track behind the then in form Holster. 1600m looks his go in life, but has jumped out well enough to suggest he can run a forward race fresh.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 14 Glass Mountain

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 7 Baekdu

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 1 Bossa Nova Lad

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 8

Leg Three: 3, 4, 5, 13

Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 11, 12

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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