8/7/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick, Winter Stakes day

Ten races will be run and won at Randwick on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out nine metres from the Winning Post-1000m; Out seven metres for the remainder.

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Winter Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Winter Stakes

1 Epic Proportions (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the straight bat option in the opener. Maher/Eustace trained colt that was backed with confidence late when debuting at the midweeks at Canterbury and #They got it spot on. He was pushed hard to find the front and just kept running, drawing clear late and he was quite dominant on the line. Should lead comfortably here and prove hard to run down.

2 Cigar Flick (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a quality filly for Chris Waller that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since the Reisling when third in a field of four behind Learning To Fly, getting every chance but couldn’t quite get there. Given a good break and with two strong trials under the belt, I think she’s ready to go and has the class to take care of these. But, first up Waller, watch the market.

3 Misty Legend (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third pick in a race that has been seriously hit by scratchings. He comes here off a sharp 900m win at Newcastle where he looked a moral on paper and duly saluted, bolting up, albeit didn’t beat a great deal. Not sure he is good enough to beat the first two, but 1100m is no issue, he’s hard fit and in form.

Fitter and up to 1400m, 5 West Of Africa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can run well. Annabel Neasham trained colt that resumed in the Overriding race from two weeks back here. He was a bit one paced when the sprint went on but he picked up and was pretty solid to the line without threatening behind the Nathan Doyle filly. Dangerous IMO if he can settle closer in the run.

4 Step Aside (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a promising animal for Chris Waller and I think up to 1400m, he’ll take beating. His last couple of runs have come at 1300m, winning at Warwick Farm two back before racing here two weeks ago and I thought he was a real eye catcher late, warming to the task behind Overriding, beaten just over two lengths. If he can settle closer in the run, he’ll take beating.

2 Token Capitalist (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can be a big improver here. He ran two weeks back in the Overriding race where he was wide no cover on speed for the trip and the run just told, feeling the pinch and finishing down the track. That was his first run in five weeks so you’d like to think there is good room for improvement and maps to get a much better run.

7 Cavaup (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs for Matty Dunn since racing over 1350m at Ipswich where she got back in the run from the inside gate and while she was never a threat, I didn’t mind the way she found the line late in the piece behind Chairman. If she can settle closer in the run, I think she’ll be dangerous against this lot.

6 Chase My Crown (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been thereabouts right throughout this prep at Highway level and is deserving of a win. She tried her guts out here a fortnight back and looked the winner when Gibbons presented her but she just found one better in surprise winner Salute Again. Probably doesn’t have any real upside but only has to hold her form to be around the mark.

5 Salute Again (Bet Now:  $SP.00) surprised with a Highway win here two weeks back. Can he repeat the dose? He really caught the eye from the back fresh on the home deck at Wagga but it was a moderate race so he was big odds in the Highway here but nobody told the horse that. He was there to be beaten but he just kept finding and was too good. He was only second up so with room for improvement, he rates highly.

4 Nosey Parker (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the better each way gambles on the card. Promising animal for Paul Perry that comes here several weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance in a Midway where he bungled the start and just couldn’t get involved when down the track behind So Good So Cool. Sent back to the trials and he moved very well IMO. Clean jump, he’ll be handy and be strong at the end.

13 Super Bright (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been pretty good in three runs back from a spell. Narrow second two back at the midweeks at Warwick Farm before going here a fortnight back in the Midway where she got back from the wide gate and just couldn’t quite get involved behind Twice As Special. Like her up to 1200m and with a more positive steer, she can take this out.

7 Twice As Special (Bet Now:  $SP.00) doesn’t have the best of overall records but she looks like she could be in for a really good prep based on her electric finale to win here two weeks back in a Midway, sitting late and launching late to finish right over the top and nail Broken Arrows. Can she repeat the dose? History says no, but should she repeat, she’s hard to beat once again.

1 Battleton (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks ready to win for Bjorn Baker. He has ran third his past two. He was narrowly beaten two back by Victorian raider Pascero before going to Randwick again two weeks ago where he was ridden cold and worked home with real purpose late in the piece behind Stonecoat, beaten a lip. He’s now had two 1400m runs under the belt, which should hold him in good stead.

2 Excelladus (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door. His latest run was in the Stonecoat race from a fortnight back where he got a fair way out of his ground but rocketed to the line, just missing out on the win when a narrow second. He has the potential to settle much closer in the run and third up off a freshen up, he appeals.

4 Turbeau (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one I can entertain for wider multiples. He ran two weeks back over 1400m at Caulfield where he got shuffled back from the inside gate but despite that, I thought he made up nice headway when beaten just over two lengths by St Lawrence. If he can settle closer and back in depth, I think he is a knockout chance at a likely decent price.

5 Mutamannin (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is heading in the right direction for Chris Waller and confident he can measure up against these. He was kept very safe in betting when racing last Wednesday at Warwick Farm where he gave them a start and a beating, launching late to finish over the top. That’s two runs at the mile now so the rise to 2000m suits and has good upside/timing.

3 Manbehindthemoney (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs for Annabel Neasham since racing at Rosehill over 1800m when near the speed throughout and kept finding the line in a solid effort behind a very promising three year old in Grebeni. Tricky draw, but if he can slide across and get a cheap run near the speed, he’ll take beating.

2 Kirkeby… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is he back on track? To the eye, just fair when resuming at Rosehill but the race shape/track pattern was against him. He then went to Rosehill again last Saturday and was a real eye catcher from the back when a close up fourth to Touristic. He’s got more upside than most, can settle closer in the run and still be effective late.

I think you just have to give 6 Bend The Knee (Bet Now:  $SP.00) one last look. He was a nightmare to follow when with John O’Shea. He’s now with Kim Waugh and yes, it’s trials, but he has looked absolutely enormous in both, the first one seeing him lead throughout and jogged. Next trial, they rode with a sit and he picked up very comfortably. He maps to get the A1 run and at his best, he has lengths on these.

3 So Good So Cool (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has a booming finish on him when right and he looks to have come back a much better horse. He ran a few weeks ago in a Midway at Randwick, giving them a start but launched late to finish over the top. Interesting he comes back to 1100m but a fast run race, sitting back, he can finish over the top.

7 Curtis Island (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a ripper for Robert Pearse. He has been runner up his past two, both at this track/distance. Latest run was two weeks ago where he used the inside gate to advantage to settle near the speed and tried his guts out but couldn’t quite get there when second to Insurrection. Knocking on the door to win again and strikes a winnable race.

I am taking a chance with 10 Matthew Flinders (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Former UK galloper that makes his Australian debut for Annabel Neasham and we know her record with these imports. He hasn’t raced since 2021 but there is an element of world class to his form via Real World. First trial, he looked like a donkey but the second trial, they slapped blinkers on, rode him cold and he rode a much improved race. At the time of writing, there is no gear change saying the Blinkers are on, so buyer beware. If they’re not on, wait another day. If they’re on, that signals intent.

5 Cisco Bay (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is rising nine years of age but you can make a strong case to say he’s in career best form. Loved the way he let down with purpose from the back to win here two back before going to the Civic Stakes two weeks ago where he was able to settle closer from the inside gate and finished strongly again but couldn’t quite get there when a narrow third to Ucalledit. Hard to knock the way he’s racing.

14 King Of Hastings (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is bursting to win and he gets a great chance here. Lot to like about his first up run behind Lady Of Luxury and backed that up in the Civic Stakes a fortnight back where he presented to win the race but had to settle for a narrow second to Ucalledit in a good effort. Third up, hard fit, he gets a great chance for a Stakes victory.

11 Iowna Merc (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a high quality three year old for Bjorn Baker that I am confident can bounce back. He should have won here two weeks ago but nothing went right for him at all and it ended up being a horrible watch. If he’s got petrol left in the tank, he certainly has the quality to do a number on these. Keen on him making amends.

3 Fox Fighter (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a frustrating horse to follow but no doubt he has the talent under the hood to measure up. He is another that comes through the Civic Stakes from two weeks back where he got back in the run and while he was never a winning threat, I didn’t mind the way he found the line late in the piece. He has that 1400m run under the belt, which should hold him in good stead.

6 Astero (Bet Now:  $SP.00) gets good weight relief from two weeks back and he can run a much improved race. He ran two weeks back here, his first run since May 13, and lumped 63.5kg, suggesting it was more or less a barrier trial for him, but I thought he ran a super race in defeat from the back, beaten just under four lengths by Insurrection. Fitter, weight relief, can settle closer, dangerous.

8 Lady Brook (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is working up to a win for Joe Pride. She has run third her past two, both coming here. Two back she closed off with purpose over 1000m behind a sharp type, Passegiata. She then went to 1100m two weeks ago and was again solid from off the speed when third to Insurrection, beaten 2.5L. If she can settle a pair or two closer in the run, she’ll be quite dangerous.

4 Authentic Jewel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous with her best. Opening two runs for the prep suggested a win was close by. She then went to Randwick a fortnight back and for mine was just a tad on the plain behind Insurrection after seemingly getting every chance. Becoming somewhat hard to follow and trust with confidence but with her best, she can win.

12 Accapella Sun (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a ripping filly for Matty Dale that was bursting to win a Highway and it came a few weeks back over 1200m at Rosehill, getting the sweet sit behind the speed under McLucas before angling clear in the straight and in a driving finish, she got the job done. Back to 1100m should be fine for her and hard to knock the way she’s racing.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 11 Iowna Merc

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Epic Proportions

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 4 Nosey Parker

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 2, 3, 6, 7

Leg Two: 5, 10, 13, 14, 17

Leg Three: 11

Leg Four: 2, 4, 8, 12

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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