Public Holiday racing in Victoria on Monday heads to Mornington for an eight race card. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:25) Neds Bet Back Mdn Plate 1200m
Going the way of the local hope 2 Confrontational (Bet Now: $10.00). Son of Redoute’s Choice that is on debut for Jason Warren off the back of three jumpouts, the latest of those coming on May 27 here when back wide near the speed but I really liked the way he went through his gears under light riding from Clayton Douglas, who rides for start one. Home track, soft gate, he’ll do me.
10 Infitaah (Bet Now: $3.60) is the one that most will be siding towards given she was the flashing light run on debut at Bendigo. Held up at a vital stage when clearly going well and can easily make a case to say she should have won. Tricky gate to contend with, but of the raced brigade, she looks the pick of them. Just needs a good ride from the barrier.
5 Sir Warwick (Bet Now: $26.00) is a Price/Kent trained youngster that had jumped out really well prior to debuting on a very testing track at Ballarat where he was near the speed and looked to travel well but when the big effort was asked, the wheels started to spin. Can’t dismiss him off that. On firmer footing, deserves another chance.
Race 2. (13:00) Neds Toolbox Mdn Plate 1200m
2 Aristo Missile (Bet Now: $3.20) is a son of Smart Missile for the Hayes/Dabernig team that is on debut. This three year old finds a winnable race for start one and with Blinkers on, there looks to be intent. Recent jumpout looked quite good and Stackhouse has really good numbers when combining with the stable. Definite market watch.
7 Shamboozle (Bet Now: $7.00) is a son of Shamexpress that is on debut for the Paul Rocke stable. Recent jumpout was encouraging to the eye and he is on his home track for start one, plus gets the in form Billy Egan to steer. Can see why there has been early market support but I’d watch the last 10-15 minutes of betting to see if that support is sustained.
13 Ryan’s Girl (Bet Now: $5.50) should be suited up to 1200m. Resumed over 1000m at Bairnsdale, a trip a bit short of her best, but liked the way she found the line late to run second. This race has been hit by scratchings and the depth is nowhere near as strong as it was when it was full field, so she’s certainly in this race.
Race 3. (13:35) Neds Money Back Odds Hcp 1000m
Provided the inside is fine, 1 Euphoric Summer (Bet Now: $2.90) should take care of these. Talented filly for the Price/Kent team that is first up, having not raced since the Magic Millions at the Gold Coast when down the track behind Away Game. Loved the recent jumpout at Caulfield, but interesting that she wore Winkers in the jumpout and they’re off for race day. But she’s just so well in at the weights after the claim.
12 Miss Bosetti (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Team Snowden trained filly that had jumped out well prior to resuming down the Flemington straight where she showed good speed from the gate to lead them up and tried hard, but couldn’t quite go on with it when fifth to Divine Caprice. This looks, overall, much easier, and I dare say she’ll box seat behind Euphoric Summer and get last look.
2 State Of Class (Bet Now: $15.00) is an Outreach gelding for Paul Rocke that resumes. All three career runs when last in work came in SA, including a win in town on the Parks track when leading throughout and showing good ticker late when challenged. Gets in well after the claim for Stockdale and recent jumpout was good.
Race 4. (14:10) Neds Extra Head (64) 1200m
9 Excused (Bet Now: $6.00) on top but without a great deal of confidence. The Hayes/Dabernig team trains this filly, who hasn’t raced since April 29 at Sandown on a bottomless track when fourth behind noted swimmer Shahzade. To me, she seems a horse who needs to find cover so she can relax, and from gate one, that’ll happen, and back on firmer footing helps as well.
Big watch on 2 Scorpius (Bet Now: $6.50) for the Price/Kent team. He returns to racing as a gelding and though the barrier is a tricky one, his recent jumpout was very sharp. Led throughout under a good hold and if he was extended, he could have bolted up. Has that Rubisaki form, and really, that’s just about the best 3YO form going around at the moment outside Loving Gaby.
15 Tycoon Thunder (Bet Now: $11.00) is not without some hope here on his home track. Yes, it was only a maiden at Pakenham on the Synthetic, but he spanked them despite being keen in the run and the time he ran wasn’t too bad relative to the meeting. Two runs prior, both maidens, have turned out to be very strong form references, so he’s worth including.
Race 5. (14:45) Neds Price Boost Multi (64) 1200m
11 More Sundays (Bet Now: $3.80)…he’s a bludger, but this is a bludger of a race. Market didn’t like him late when he resumed on the Synthetic at Pakenham but he should have gone close to winning, running out of room late when having something to offer. He’s an enigma, somewhat a non winner…but gee this race is winnable for him.
Shawn Mathrick has 1 Rolling Moss (Bet Now: $6.00) going well. Thought it was a lovely ride from the front by Emily Brown over 1200m at Cranbourne last start, rolling along at a nice tempo and really, was never getting beat from the home turn onwards. Gets the 3kg claim for an in form Lewis German and despite drawing wide, rolls forward and will be hard to run down.
2 Stornaway (Bet Now: $46.00) is a Tony Logan trained galloper that resumes. Hasn’t raced since Feb 19 at Sandown when unwanted in betting and ran accordingly, but wasn’t terrible by any means behind a handy one in Falls. Resumes off the back of a jumpout at Cranbourne on Monday where he was back and not asked for much. Always have to respect these horses that drop from 70 grade to 64.
Race 6. (15:20) Neds (70) 1500m
Was on 1 Sonaree (Bet Now: $4.20) at the good odds at Sandown…and still not sure how he got beat. Was given a perfect ride on speed by Michael Rodd, he looked home…but was nabbed right on the line by Strategic Phil. He’s going really well at the moment. Just needs to bring that endeavour away from Sandown and he’ll go close.
14 Touch Of Mink (Bet Now: $4.20) has been up forever it seems but gee she’s racing honestly. Little break between runs for the mare since racing on the Synthetic at Pakenham when near the speed throughout and battled away to finish third. Like that Craig Williams jumps on because it’s June/July and his S/R during that period last couple of seasons is outstanding.
6 Danawi (Bet Now: $7.50) is getting better with each run this prep and is nearing a win I think. Not sure it’s here, but he’ll give himself every chance on speed, which is what he did on the Pakenham Synthetic last time out when a solid fourth to Synthetic specialist El Phoenix. Gets the claim for Price, rolls forward and will give a sight.
Race 7. (15:55) Neds Price Boost Multi (78) 2000m
2 Stellar Impact (Bet Now: $1.70) is short enough but she does look the pony to beat. Progressive mare for the WaterBott stable that was given an absolute peach in front by Williams, controlling things beautifully from the front and giving nothing else a chance. Not sure this race is much harder, looks the leader again…short enough, but the likely winner.
1 Arctic Shock (Bet Now: $6.00) has to be rated highly here for the Meagher camp. Just forget she went around at Flemington last time out. Not many handled that very wet and shifty track, with this mare being one of them. Back to Mares grade on firmer footing, plus with the claim for Jess Eaton, she looks the only threat.
The Richard Laming is in a little purple patch at the moment so including 8 No Money No Honey (Bet Now: $16.00). Think she’ll love the rise to 2000m after racing over the mile at her past couple. Class got her home at Moe two back before going to Ballarat where she had to make a sustained run and just died on the run late. Racing as if 2000m suits and stable is in form.
Race 8. (16:30) Take It To The Neds Level (70) 1000m
To me this is all about 1 Not Enough Effort (Bet Now: $3.20) and where he is at. If he’s anywhere near his best, he just wins this. Formerly with Sharyn Trolove but is now with the Busuttin/Young camp. Form had tapered off somewhat but in saying that, he did contest races that are lengths better than what he faces here. New stable and lone jumpout for them in readiness for this was an outstanding piece of work.
5 Divine Mr Tycoon (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Brendan McCarthy trained four year old that resumes. This Written Tycoon gelding hasn’t raced since March 21, which was the Saturday metro program, when on speed and tiring late when fourth to I’m Telling Ya. Just a quiet jumpout at Sandown to prepare for this but like the booking of Olly.
8 Remastered (Bet Now: $6.00) is a very interesting runner. Talented animal for Tony Noonan when right but he can be hit and miss at times. That was evident when he was last in work. Brilliant win down the Flemington straight. Raced there again and failed to fire, though did pull up lame. His best is good enough. I’d watch the market.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Three Number 1 Euphoric Summer
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 2 Stellar Impact
LONG SHOT: Race One Number 2 Confrontational
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 8, 11
Leg Two: 1, 6, 14, 15
Leg Three: 1, 2
Leg Four: 1, 5, 8, 9, 11
$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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