8/4/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, WATC Derby day

1 Snowdome (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has won at 1400m but I do think he might be best suited at the short course so 1000m here looks perfect. He resumed over 1200m here two weeks ago and I thought was there to win but he couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Ginger Green. Back in trip and from a soft gate, should lob into a beaut spot and prove very hard to hold out. One of the better bets on the program.

2 Go Forward (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been pretty good in two runs back from a spell, both coming at this track/distance. Latest run was three weeks ago in the Rock Magic when far from disgraced in defeat behind Acromantula, with that form holding up pretty well last Saturday in the Roma Cup behind the star that is Amelia’s Jewel. Back to this level, hard fit now, he commands respect.

3 Cosmopolitan Girl (Bet Now:  $SP.00) takes on the older horses but she comes here as a last start winner. That win came last Wednesday at Belmont where she was a big price and ridden with a sit, she found the line and in a driving finish, was able to just get the win. Think she’s a short course horse so she’s suited at 1000m and down in the weights, don’t dismiss her.

1 Mountain Ash (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been up forever but gee he’s racing well for Dan Morton. He won last Saturday at this track/distance and I thought the win had great merit to it because he was there to be beaten from the front but found under pressure to fend them off and get the job done narrowly but impressively. He’s closer to the end of the prep than the beginning but hard to knock the way he’s going.

3 Beat The Bro (Bet Now:  $SP.00) hasn’t won in a little while but he’s been around the mark and the small field helps his cause. He ran over this trip on Sunday at Pinjarra and was good from off the speed when third to Heaps Of Moolah, closing off nicely and clocking decent enough late splits. Small field will ensure he isn’t far away and should be strong at the end.

4 Ex Sport Man (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is yet to place in four runs at the mile but is seemingly racing like it will be okay here. Ran two weeks back over 1400m here and I thought was okay from off the speed without threatening behind impressive winner Magnificent Andy. Not sure he is going well enough to beat some of these, but if it becomes a sit/sprint, he has the change up speed to be around the mark.

4 No Dice (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Sarah Evans trained mare that resumes. She wasn’t too far away when last in work without winning in races that were stronger than what she faces here, so for mine, she finds a winnable race to resume in, she’s trialled up well in readiness and a good lead is that the stable finds W Pike to steer. Good enough for me.

1 Some Sort (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win one. Team Gangemi trained gelding that is three weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where he attempted to lead throughout and gave a solid kick but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Leica Jaguar. The depth here is nowhere near as strong and with a soft lead on the cards, he’ll take running down.

2 Glasgow Girl (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Brad Graham trained mare that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since December 24 over this track/distance when back off the speed and finding the line pretty well late in the piece behind Moi Choux, beaten just under three lengths. Interesting she resumes without a public trial but she can sprint well fresh. Not sure she wins, but she’s one for multiples.

1 Shell Bell (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be taking care of this lot. Dion Luciani trained filly that resumes, having not raced since the December 17 when a dominant all the way winner at this track/distance. It seems like the stable have focused on her being a short course type given her best efforts have come at 1000m and has had two 400m trial wins under the belt, ensuring she has the dash in the legs for the return, and Pike steers.

9 Premium Girl (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a daughter of A Lot that is on debut. She had two trials in the Spring without a run and was spelled soon after. She has come back this time in and with a strong trial win over 950m at Lark Hill under the belt, she’s had the right grounding to run well on debut. Take out Shell Bell and this race is on the thin side, so she gets respect from me.

Back to 1000m I find interesting with 3 Blue Lagoon (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but he should be strong late if they go silly in front. He resumed last Saturday in the Perth Stakes where he was last in the run and while he was never a winning threat, I didn’t mind the way he finished his race off behind Ripcord. He’ll likely be spotting these a start but if he gets a drag into the race, he will be dangerous.

9 Rusty Dreams… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) just how good is she? Michael Lane trained filly that is second up here and is looking to make it 3/3 to start her career. She resumed over 1200m at Pinjarra and she looked in a bit of trouble early on in the straight but once Parnham got fair dinkum with her, she went through her gears and drew clear late to win well. Like her up to 1400m, good upside and think she has a bit of brilliance about her. Confident she measures up.

2 El Patron (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a query at 1400m but now seems the right time to strike given he is early on in his prep and maps ideally. He ran over 1200m last Wednesday at Belmont where I thought Watson rode him a bit too cute in waiting a long time to push the button and by the time she did, Lucky Landing had all the momentum out wide and finished best. Think with a soft run on speed, 1400m is okay and is a leading chance.

3 Amber Glide (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done little wrong in a three start career for Ross Price. Has won twice with a fourth in between. The last start win came over this trip at Belmont where she got into a lovely spot under Azzopardi and showed decent change up speed late to put them away and win well. Has that 1400m run under the belt, which should hold her in good stead for this.

All things being equal, 3 Awesome John (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has plenty on these. He ran two weeks ago in the Tulloch at Rosehill and I thought did a really good job from near the speed when third to Tapildoodledo, beaten a half length. Straight after the race, I thought that form was rank but that form was the winning form reference for the Australian Derby last Saturday. Back to this level, only bad luck beats him.

1 Another Chino (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the pick of the locals and has to be respected. He has simply been too good for them in the lead ups, the latest being two weeks ago in the Melvista where he got a 12/10 steer from Brad Parnham and in a driving go, he finished best for a big win. Should do no work from the gate and the way he finds the line, 2400m should be more than okay. Hard to beat.

4 Playhouse Patron (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the leading local prospects. His run in the Melvista was an absolute beauty, working home with real purpose late in the piece and clocking the best late splits when a close up third to Another Chino. He doesn’t have the best of racing patterns, but if he can settle closer in the run, I think he’ll be one of the strongest at the end.

5 Magnificent Andy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form again and now that he has, he can certainly go on with it. That win came at this track/distance two weeks ago where he lobbed into a beaut spot behind the speed, a genuine speed, and really, it was race over from the turn. Just a matter of Parnham pushing the button and once he did, away he went and he spanked them. Harder here, but confident he measures up.

6 Stellar Vista (Bet Now:  $SP.00) appeals. Simon Miller trained mare that is three weeks between runs since a strong win at this track/distance where she dropped a fair bit in grade/depth and that did the trick as she finished best for a deserved victory. The run prior behind Western Knight does read very well for a race like this and despite a tricky gate to overcome, she is one of the leading chances.

7 Kaymay (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one I can entertain for wider multiples. She resumed at the midweeks at Belmont where she was just off the speed throughout and battled away pretty well in defeat when third to impressive winner My Fury. Has run well at this level previously and with significant weight relief, a jockey upgrade, I think she can run a positive race at a likely decent price.

8 Weaponson (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done a super job in recent times for Dan Morton and for me, is a straight bat option. He is three weeks between runs since a strong win over 1800m here. He got into a beaut spot behind the speed under Dyson and once he angled into clear air, he went through the gears in the straight and was impressive to the line in winning. Back to the mile no issue, hard fit, in form, good racing style…he’ll do me.

1 Last Of The Line (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate the rise to the mile. He is steadily getting better with racing. Just needed the run fresh in the Bunbury Stakes before going to 1500m in the Grandstand Cup and worked home well from off the speed with the big weight behind Playing Marika. Hard fit now and getting to the mile, this is just about D-Day for him.

4 Big Bada Boom (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found a purple patch after looking cast. Tough on speed win over 1400m two back before contesting the Grandstand Cup where he was met with good market support and ran right up to that push, getting back in the run and finding the line quite well late in the piece behind Playing Marika. Like him up in trip and he’ll be dangerous with a more positive ride.

2 Starring Knight (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has really put it together in recent times and I think he can make it four on the bounce. He has been quite dominant in the last three starts/wins, the latest being last Wednesday at Belmont where he got into a beaut spot behind the speed and really, once Parnham pushed the button, he showed good change up speed and made an absolute mess of them. No reason why he can’t win again.

3 Cobbanco (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the leading chances. I was quite keen on him when he resumed here two weeks ago and I thought he was the winner in the run but just couldn’t quite get there when a narrow second to No Change in a driving finish. Tricky draw to overcome, but the way he has come back, he has good change up speed…hopefully can get a drag into the race.

5 Savanik (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will need luck from the tricky gate but I think she has returned well. She resumed just under two weeks back at Pinjarra where the market said she would need the run and that is how it panned out. She got back in the run and made up some headway without threatening behind Double Spice. Has won second up and overall, this race is on the thin side, so if a couple of key rivals are off, she can pounce.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 1 Shell Bell

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 2 Starring Knight

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 4 No Dice

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3

Leg Two: 5, 6, 7, 8

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8

Leg Four: 2

$50 Investment = 250% of the dividend if successful

Bookmaker	Why Bet	Sign Up	Full Review
	Back Yourself with Ladbrokes!	Join	Review
	Back a Winner with Neds!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Palmerbet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to swiftbet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Unibet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to Dabble and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review
	Sign up to MyBet and start betting in minutes!	Join	Review