8/12/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Sandown

The twilight racing season in Melbourne over the Summer months kicks off this Wednesday at Sandown with eight races set down. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

I’m with 2 Golden Queen (Bet Now: $4.20) in the opener. WaterBott trained filly that is having start one, like every other runner here. To the eye, others have trialled/jumped out better, but she did look solid herself in her latest trial, which was a 1050m trial win at Randwick, which is a strong grounding compared to 800m jump/run jumpouts, so leaning her way.

The trial pervs will be all over 5 Rippling Belle (Bet Now: $3.20) given she has won three jumpouts in readiness for start one, the latest coming over 800m at Cranbourne when leading throughout, winning by a space and running good time. Just needs to stretch the brilliance an extra 200m.

6 Tanto (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Churchill filly for Matty Ellerton that is on debut. Her recent jumpout suggests that she will be better for the run under the belt, but the small field helps her cause and she does get J Kah on, so a couple of ticks there to ensure she’s a first four contender.

5 Newley Wed (Bet Now: $4.00) on top in what looks a solid maiden. Team Hawkes trained filly that is on debut and has been certainly been given a good grounding. Had a Winter prep that saw her have four jumpouts without a run. Spelled and has had two jumpouts this prep. Stable are hard to trust with confidence re first starters, but she looks to have ability.

9 Savonia (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Team Corstens filly that resumes and I think commands respect. Market liked her at odds when she debuted at Ballarat back in February when on speed and giving a good kick but just felt the pinch late when third to Glitter N Gold. Two encouraging jumpouts to get ready and maps well from the draw.

7 Perpetual Grace (Bet Now: $21.00) has talent and I think would be a good thing if they found a provincial maiden instead of coming to town, but perhaps she is going well enough according to the stable to have a crack. Resumed at Mornington and warmed to the task late in a good effort behind Morioka, who is Stakes performed. That reads well for this.

The SP from the debut concerns me with 12 Legatus (Bet Now: $4.80), but if you take away that and just focus on the run, gee it was good. He got a mile out of his ground and really warmed to the task late in a very encouraging debut when a narrow third. He’ll eat up the extra 300m and should be better for the run under the belt.

7 Can’t Go Wong (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Per Incanto colt for the Maher/Eustace camp that is on debut. He has had two jumpouts to get ready for start one and has won on both occasions in good style. There are a few unknowns heading into this with several runners, so I’d watch the market with him.

10 Honest Legend (Bet Now: $8.50) gets the Blinkers on first time and I think can be a big improver from his debut, which came over 1100m at Bendigo where he looked quite raw and new to the caper, just failing to finish it off well enough. Up in trip with Blinkers on to sharpen him up, he can be an improver.

1 Abseiler (Bet Now: $4.80) is certainly capable if he produced anywhere near his best. Resumed over 1000m at the Valley and failed to fire a shot behind a smart animal, Unflinching. Bit of tinkering with the head gear and back to this level, he can easily win this without surprising.

2 Fivefingerdiscount (Bet Now: $4.60) is an interesting runner. Patrick Payne trained gelding that was a notable drifter in betting on debut at Traralgon but nobody told the horse that as he showed early toe and good fight late when challenged to get the job done. I think he can measure up here.

3 Don’t Doubt Nic (Bet Now: $13.00) can be a big improver here. Market said he had three legs first up at Mornington and ran accordingly when down the track behind Tax Free Prophet. Lone win came second up and from the good draw with the claim, he can bounce back.

9 Royelle (Bet Now: $15.00) looks to be the one with the most scope. She was 1600m to 2400m last time out at Bendigo and had to carry 61.5kg. Did a good job to get as close as she did I thought. Tumbles in weight, has the run at the trip under the belt…I think she’s one of the better bets on the card.

Andrea Leek has 1 Saving (Bet Now: $2.45) absolutely flying at the moment. He gave them an absolute spanking over 2500m at the Valley last time, leading throughout and giving nothing else a look in. Creeping up in the weights now, but hard to knock the way he is racing at the moment.

8 Silk Jacket (Bet Now: $8.00) beat home Royelle in that 2400m Bendigo race mentioned above and she was a tad unlucky, getting held up in the straight when having something to offer. The rode her with a sit there and it worked so I suspect they’ll ride her conservatively and launch late.

2 Lariat (Bet Now: $5.00) looks the safe option. Maher/Eustace mare that steps up to 1300m after racing over 1200m at the Valley last time out when back and wide but kept finding the line in a good effort when third to Jump The Broom, who has won again since. Maps well from the draw and gets in nicely after the claim.

5 American Angel (Bet Now: $3.40) is a key threat for me. Danny O’Brien trained mare who is third up from a break. She was enormous at Sale last time. Yes, a beaten favourite, but she was back in the run on a day on speed/fence was gold. She did a great job to get as close as she did. Over a month between runs and back in trip tells me this is a prep run for something else, so watch the market.

1 Succeed Indeed (Bet Now: $16.00) is better suited over a bit further but she does have a class edge. Resumes for the Corstens camp, having not raced since May 22 when good late over 2000m at Flemington behind Horrifying. If they overdo it in front, she could blouse them at the end.

14 Designs (Bet Now: $2.45) has returned in good order for the Freedman camp. Ran last time out at Sandown where she looked to race tight between runners but got more clear air late and surged hard to just miss out on the win. Third up now, hard fit, she’ll take beating here.

3 Translator (Bet Now: $3.90) is suited back up in trip for Nigel Blackiston and is hard to beat. Was 1700m back to the mile when racing on the Lakeside track here last time and was very game on speed when a close up third to Convict Sam. Jockey upgrade and back up in trip, he appeals.

11 Sea Crossing (Bet Now: $41.00) is yet to race at the trip but on breeding, he should be fine. Ran over the mile on Kilmore Cup Day and was never really a winning factor but I thought was far from disgraced in defeat behind Storm’s Colours. Not sure I could back him to win but one for multiples.

Back to 70 grade is the big tick for 11 Kamien (Bet Now: $23.00). Peter Gelagotis trained gelding that ran over 1400m at Ballarat in an 84 last time and he was far from disgraced in defeat behind a very good progressive mare in Lighthouse. Back miles in grade/depth, he’s the one for me.

14 Mrs Sippy (Bet Now: $3.70) looks the map horse and the one punters will gravitate towards. Bob of the head was the difference between winning and losing last time when pipped by Derive in a close finish. Gets a jockey upgrade with J Kah taking over and from the draw, gets run of the race stuff.

18 Mister Yu Shu (Bet Now: $6.50) will take beating if he gains a start. Ran over 1200m two weeks ago on the Lakeside track here and warmed to the task late from near last in the run behind an in form Kentucky Casanova. Olly takes over and if he’s within range, he can win this.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 14 Designs

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 9 Royelle

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 11 Kamien

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 9

Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5

Leg Three: 14

Leg Four: 4, 8, 11, 14, 18

$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful

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