Pakenham will host their biggest day this Saturday where it is Pakenham Cup Day. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:55) John Duff & Co Handicap (70) 1000m
I think 6 Symphonette (Bet Now: $4.20) can get the job done here. 2/2 this time in for Phillip Stokes, the latest win coming a fortnight back on the Parks track at Morphettville where she sat off the speed and once Caboche gave her clear air, she pounced and showed an electric turn of foot. This looks a very winnable assignment for the filly.
3 All In Brawl (Bet Now: $3.40) is a John Price trained three year old who resumes. Created a good impression in his first prep, winning impressively on debut on the Geelong Synthetic before a narrow second at the Valley. The recent Cranbourne jump out was okay without jumping up and down. Might need the run, but has a touch of quality.
8 Miss Scorcher (Bet Now: $9.50) is an interesting runner. Graeme Murray trains this filly at Kembla Grange and she makes the trip south. Resumed on the Kensington track at Randwick and was far from disgraced for mine in the race won by by He’s Super Lucky. Her overall form does read very well, so if she gets luck in the run, I think she’ll be a threat for sure.
Race 2. (13:30) Hanson Handicap (70) 1600m
It does look a good race for 4 Casino Fourteen (Bet Now: $2.70). Darren Weir trains this four year old, who last raced on Donald Cup a few weeks back over 1350m where he sat on speed under John Allen and once he clicked the horse up in the straight, it was game over and he won really impressively. More depth, but the mile should be fine, has upside and for mine is one of the hardest to beat.
Giving respect to 10 Gheedaa (Bet Now: $4.50) for the Hayes/Dabernig team. This mare is five weeks between runs since scoring a very sharp win over the mile at Morphettville, helped by a lovely ride from Jamie Kah. Form out of that has been franked via Box On Collins. No jump out since, but has residual fitness and really good form around her.
2 Ubin Thunderstruck (Bet Now: $46.00) is a handy stayer that was formerly with Darren Weir but is resuming for the Cameron team. He hasn’t raced since the 2800m on Cup Day last year when running a solid seventh to Fanatic. Clearly whatever he does here he will improve on, but he’s certainly got talent and class. Definitely one to watch.
Race 3. (14:05) Fulmen Park Handicap (78) 1400m
4 Miss Wahoo (Bet Now: $4.50) clearly for mine. Tony McEvoy trains this mare, who was 1400-1200 when racing at Ballarat last time and I thought her effort was quite good, finishing off nicely to run second to Nariko. Back up to 1400m with hard fitness now under the belt, she certainly appeals against this lot and for mine is a good bet.
10 Teodora (Bet Now: $9.50) is the unknown. If she was at her best, she’d beat these comfortably, but it’s just an unknown as to where she is at. Resumes for the Weir camp after a mixed/disappointing Autumn prep. Been given a good break, has trialled up well. I’d rather watch than back her, but she’s got the quality to figure in the finish.
11 It’s A Myth (Bet Now: $8.00) should love the rise to 1400m for Phillip Stokes. She was over a month between runs when racing over 1200m at Sandown where she got a mile out of her ground but finished off with real purpose late to run fourth to Moonlight Baby. 1400m should be ideal for this lightly raced and always have to respect the stable.
Race 4. (14:40) Grand Vue Springlands Handicap (78) 2000m
Hard to get away from 9 Mr Quickie (Bet Now: $3.50). Darren Weir looks to have a really handy three year old on his hands. Ran over 1800m last Wednesday at Sandown where he had the good sit just behind the speed and once he got clear air, he built up the revs and put them away quite impressively. Takes on the older horses, but he’s low flying and 2000m looks ideal.
3 Calibration (Bet Now: $5.00) took a little while to get on the board in Australia but the win finally came under the lights at Moonee Valley last time and he was pretty dominant in getting the job done, helped by a 12/10 steer from Ben Allen, who got going on the turn to get momentum and the horse kept finding late. Harder here, but is a working progress and should be high in confidence.
Right down in the weights, I’d be including 11 Benall (Bet Now: $101.00) in wider multiples. Thought the first up run at Cranbourne was a beauty and I think you can forgive the next two runs. Gets really good weight relief this time around and any give in the track certainly won’t harm his chances. Not sure he can win, but I’d include him in trifectas/first fours.
Race 5. (15:20) Nasahi AAC Plate (78) 1000m
He’s not one of mine but that can be said about most of these so going with 6 Prezado (Bet Now: $8.50), who last raced over the 955m at the Valley where he was wide no cover on speed and folded late behind Exceltara. If he runs up to his best, he’ll win, and Williams is booked. But I would want each way odds before having something on.
Is 4 Matty (Bet Now: $5.50) starting to put it together? Don’t think he beat much last time over 955m at the Valley but he dominated from the front and gave nothing a look in, winning impressively. Has to stretch it to 1000m against some handy types, but now he’s got a good win under the belt, he could well go right on with it here.
12 Sovereign Duke (Bet Now: $16.00) looks silly odds at $41+. Nathan Hobson trains with Chelsea Macfarlane to ride and they did have Reward With Return nominated so the fact they go with this bloke interests me. His overall form is just fair, with most recent runs being at Morphettville, but the stable/jock combo should be respected and he’s a bomb when produced fresh.
Race 6. (16:00) David Bourke Memorial 1600m
I’ll be putting the line through 8 Fastnet Latina (Bet Now: $4.60) if he can’t beat these or go very close to. Was all over him last time in the Donald Cup and on the turn, it looked no betting, he was home. But Romancer, who hasn’t done much since arriving in Australia, decided to produce his best and prove too good. He should be hard fit, finding positive form, this isn’t a strong race…surely he goes close.
4 Age Of Fire (Bet Now: $4.00) was once one of the best gallopers in NZ but his form really tapered off towards the end of his three year old days. Now with Weir, first few runs this time in were rubbish but there was sharp improvement in the Kilmore Cup when an eye catching fifth to Manuel. Now he’s found positive form, perhaps he can go on with it.
1 Torgersen (Bet Now: $4.80) has somewhat turned his career around for Chris Waller. Once upon a time he was an absolute bludger to follow, but the prep in Queensland has really seemed to get him a confident horse again and that’s translated to decent efforts i Sydney and Melbourne, the last run being a closing second to Manuel in the Kilmore Cup. He’s a threat for sure.
Race 7. (16:40) Pakenham Cup 2500m
13 Khartoum (Bet Now: $19.00) is worth an each way bet for mine. Pat Carey has set this horse for the race and he comes here in winning after a strong effort from off the pace to win over 2300m at Ballarat last time which followed an eye catching run at the Valley. Distance will be no issue here and overall, I don’t think this is a strong race.
3 Kiwia (Bet Now: $3.80) could easily blow these away if he’s recovered from what would have been a tough run in the Ballarat Cup where a genius steer from Johnny Allen got the five year old home. I question the strength of that form, and the weight rise, but he probably should have a touch of upside left and 2500m looks to be fine.
Gee hasn’t 4 Lord Fandango (Bet Now: $11.00) been disappointing this time in? He promised so much early on in the prep after a really good first up run in the Benalla Cup but he hasn’t gone on with it since. Ballarat Cup effort behind Kiwia was a shocker but the blinkers come off and at his best he’s one of the hardest to beat. That’s the chance you’ll have to take if you like him.
Race 8. (17:20) VOBIS Gold Bullion 1400m
7 So Si Bon (Bet Now: $5.00 PROMO ODDS) is a tease, bludger…could say worse but I won’t. But watching the replay from last start at Flemington behind Dreamforce, you could make a case he nearly should have won. Just had no luck late when looking to burst through. He hasn’t been far away of late and I think stepping significantly back in grade will suit.
3 Mr Money Bags (Bet Now: $6.50) looks ready for the 1400m. Thought he was really good first up down the straight behind Order Of Command before racing over 1200m at Kilmore where he was blown away by Mastering. He really comes into his own at 1400m and third up last prep was under two lengths from Fifty Stars, which reads well for this.
1 Turnitaround (Bet Now: $13.00) is an eight year old veteran that resumes for the Matty Williams stable. His Autumn/Winter prep was just fair overall but his best run did come first up in the Victoria Handicap when beaten narrowly by Widgee Turf, which is outstanding form for a race like this. Does his best racing fresh so I think he’s a definite yard/market watch.
Race 9. (17:55) Sportsbet Racing Form Handicap 1200m
10 Suspense (Bet Now: $5.00) on top. Team Snowden have this gelding, who resumes after a solid Autumn/Winter prep, which started in pretty awful terms but he gradually got better as the prep got deeper. Can sprint well fresh and I thought his Cranbourne trial behind the above average Sweet Rockette was more than encouraging. He’ll do me.
If the breaks go his way, 12 Leodoro (Bet Now: $7.00) can certainly win this. This bloke last raced in late June at Flemington over 1400m when down the track behind Chamois Road and racing like a tired horse. Can’t find a recent jump out for him but he likes racing here and is an absolute bomb when produced fresh. Market/yard watch.
5 Here To There (Bet Now: $19.00) is such an interesting runner. The Maher/Eustace team trains this gelding, who hasn’t raced since September 2017 when down the track at Caulfield. Been a long time since he has raced, but can sprint well fresh and has been tuned up for his return with a couple of Cranbourne trials. Market will be the guide.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Six Number 8 Fastnet Latina
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 4 Casino Fourteen
LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 13 Khartoum
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 8
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 13
Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 7
Leg Four: 5, 7, 10, 12
$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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