8/10/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot

The 2022/23 Ascot racing season in WA kicks fof this Saturday with a bumper ten race program. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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7 Live To Tell (Bet Now: $1.95) looks a very sharp filly for Simon Miller. She has trialled twice and won them both with arrogance, the latest being last week over 850m when leading throughout and she went through her gears like a good horse, running fast time. I think she has the brilliance factor covered on this lot and that’ll get her home.

1 A Lot Of Good Men (Bet Now: $2.45) is a son of A Lot for Trevor Andrews that debuts. He trialled on the same morning as Live To Tell and won his respective trial. His overall time was a couple of lengths slower than the filly but I thought he moved pretty well. Harvey sticks, he’s the main threat.

4 Danea Rock (Bet Now: $101.00) will improve with time I’d suggest but I think she goes okay. Run off her legs in a 400m Lark Hill trial before going to 400m at Lark Hill again and was much better when a close up third. Would have preferred if she had an 850m trial as the second hit out, but I think she’ll be strong late if they overdo it.

9 Mystery Island (Bet Now: $3.60) is a horse on the up and I think he can take this out. Dominant winner of the Toodyay Cup at Belmont last time, and the win had plenty of merit given he was second up and was jumping to 2200m from the mile. Now he has the 2200m run under the belt, with upside, he’s the one for me.

7 Devonia (Bet Now: $5.50) is a mare who is putting together a decent record. Brian Kersley trained mare that was a strong winner over 2200m at Belmont three weeks back. She was there to be run down but found plenty under pressure to fend them off and win well. Harder here, but hard to knock the way she’s going.

3 Blackwater Bay (Bet Now: $4.60) has found positive form and I think he will hold it. He ran three weeks ago at Belmont where he was given a peach by CJP by sticking inside and it all but worked, just missing out on the win when a narrow second. He’s got upside, he has found form and will be strong late. Hard to beat.

4 Henchard (Bet Now: $3.80) has to be given another chance. Like most, I was keen on him when racing last Saturday at Kalgoorlie but he failed to fire a shot in a plain effort, which followed an impressive win at Belmont. He’s run well at Ascot before and off a forgive run, he has to be given another look.

5 Marchamley (Bet Now: $11.00) is a progressive four year old for Fred Kersley that resumes. He ended last prep on a high with a couple of wins on the bounce, the latest being over the mile at Belmont. Resumes without a trial, but 1500m fresh tells me he’s got residual fitness so watch the market.

11 If Time Stands Still (Bet Now: $17.00) runs up to the fresh performance, she likely wins again. First run for the new stable came at Belmont where she was big odds but she won like a $1.50 pop and gee she was impressive, clocking the best late splits of the meeting. Just has to hold that and she’ll go close.

Hard to get away from 9 Queen Alina (Bet Now: $4.40). She is looking to make it three wins on the bounce, her wins coming at Northam, winning the maiden at 1300m before stepping up to the mile and she was dominant, running some of the better late splits of the meeting. Rises to metro grade, but confident she measures up.

8 Pepper Assault (Bet Now: $13.00) is a threat. She is a tick over two weeks between runs since a strong win at the midweeks at Belmont where she got into a dream spot behind the speed and came with a well timed run under Watson to score. Maps ideally again and overall, the depth is thin.

10 Chokslam (Bet Now: $14.00) comes back to 1800m from the 2200m of the Toodyay Cup at Belmont last time where she tried her guts out and was very game in defeat when second to Mystery Island. Has the hard run under the belt and maps ideally from the soft gate. Knockout hope.

6 Tiffany Street (Bet Now: $3.90) is getting towards D-Day but I do think she finds a very winnable race. $1.55 pop when racing at the Belmont midweeks last time but she was never a winning factor, chasing from the outset. She stayed on but was soundly held late when second to All Metal. Hard fit now and 2/2 at Ascot, this is last chance territory.

9 Bustler (Bet Now: $2.60) is a Neville Parnham trained three year old that resumes. He’s only had one career outing, which came at Belmont in July when getting the suck run behind the speed before angling clear and finishing best for a strong debut win. Trial win was good, he maps ideally again…leading chance.

5 The Anvil (Bet Now: $51.00) hasn’t quite measured up in town previously. Just a run fresh at Belmont before going to York where he was wide no cover for the trip but he stayed on and kept finding the line when second to Bird’s The Word. Not sure I could back him to win but one for exotics.

5 Pennys Afield (Bet Now: $6.50) is a promising mare for Michael Lane that resumes and I think she can resume a winner. 1200m is on the short side for her but she does have a bit of quality about her. She hasn’t raced since April 15 over 1500m here when looking like she’d be a good thing beaten but got clear and charged late for an impressive win. Quiet trial to get ready…potentially this is a prep run, but I think ability wise, she has a bit on these.

7 Real Grace (Bet Now: $4.80) has found winning form and she can certainly hold it. Was luckless to start the prep so Michael Grantham sent he to Geraldton for a kill last Wednesday and that’s what it was. She spanked them and was impressive. Tricky draw, but she’ll be strong at the end.

4 My Dilemma (Bet Now: $21.00) is an improver here for David Harrison. She resumed at the midweeks at Belmont over 1200m where she got back to near last in the run and was never really a threat but didn’t mind the way she finished her race off behind All Metal. She is a second up winner and Harvey sticks. Definite winning threat.

I think a fast run 1000m will be ideal for 2 Mood Swings (Bet Now: $7.00). He has done his recent racing over 1200m, the latest being three weeks ago at Belmont in the Nicopolis where he was near the speed and fought on bravely when a close up third to Comes A Time. Fast run 1000m, with his hard fitness and racing style, he’s likeable.

8 Ghost Who Walks (Bet Now: $12.00) will need luck from the wide gate but he’s flying for Neville Parnham. He ran a fortnight back at Belmont where he had the suck run behind the speed and was there to win but just had no answers for Go Forward, just missing out on the win. Hard to beat with luck from the draw.

6 Multiverse (Bet Now: $34.00) is a Gary Crispin trained veteran that resumes. This nine year old is first up, having not raced since November 13 when down the track and tailed off last behind Wilchino, who went on to contest the Winterbottom. Trial win was sharp and while he is best suited at 1200m, I think he can run an encouraging race fresh.

Pretty keen on 6 Advanced (Bet Now: $4.00). I thought Parnham on this guy and Carbery on Alsephina just took way too long to get going two weeks ago at Belmont, with Advanced charging to the line late when a close up third, producing some of the better late splits of the meeting. If he’s within range on the turn, they won’t be holding them out.

2 Speed Dream (Bet Now: $14.00) is a threat. Resumed three weeks ago at Belmont where he was tucked in behind the speed and was trucking, but couldn’t get clear air at the right stage and should have finished much closer behind Let’s Galahvant, who won the Hannans at Kalgoorlie, so the form clearly reads well. Hard to beat.

15 Miss Vasari (Bet Now: $26.00) is a query at 1400m but her last start tells me she’ll be okay. Ran over 1200m two weeks back at Belmont when back off the speed and kept finding the line in a solid effort behind All The King’s Men. Not sure I could back her to win but a must for multiples.

6 All Show… (Bet Now: $2.20) she looks very sharp. Her win two weeks ago was something else. Led throughout and she went through her gears like a potential Stakes class horse, giving them a spanking in such an impressive return. She smashed the clock and really, all things being equal, she should win again.

2 Top Of The Pops (Bet Now: $8.50) is likely using this as a prep run, but beware the unbeaten horse. 4/4 as a juvenile, ranging from 1200m to 1400m, so 1000m fresh here without a public trial tells me this is a tune up run, but he’s very good and will launch late over the top if they overdo it.

1 Snowdome (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Neville Parnham trained three year old that resumes and is another that has eyes on the WA Guineas. He ended last prep on a high with two wins, the latest win being Sires Produce over 1400m. He’s had two trials to get ready so fitness won’t be an issue.

4 Buster Bash (Bet Now: $5.50) is back to 1400m but he’s got fitness on some of these, he’s tough and in form. Four weeks between runs since winning at Belmont over the mile, where he was there to be beaten, but found plenty under pressure to fight and win. More depth here, but maps well enough to my eye with a positive ride and should be strong at the end.

Promising mare is 6 Treasured Star (Bet Now: $1.95) and she resumes for Adam Durrant. This girl hasn’t raced since the WA Guineas win last year where she was a dominant winner from the back and looked like a Kingston Town horse. Kept on ice for this Carnival and her three trials leading in have been strong. Watch the market.

13 Position Of Power (Bet Now: $17.00) is a first four threat. He is three weeks between runs since a solid win at the Belmont mile, where he sat off the speed but came with a wel timed run to win nicely. Like him back to 1400m and drawn soft, he’ll do no work and be strong late. Knockout chance.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 6 All Show

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 6 Advanced

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 5 Pennys Afield

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 2, 5, 6, 8

Leg Two: 6

Leg Three: 6

Leg Four: 1, 4, 6, 11, 13

$50 Investment = 250% of the dividend if successful

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