8/10/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Cranbourne, Pinker Pinker Plate night

Race for the Picnic horses, so a lot of guessing involved here. In saying that, 6 Dishy’s (Bet Now: $3.20) brings the best TAB form into this race. Forgive last start at Kilmore when wide no cover for the trip and I don’t think handled the track. Draws wide, but has early speed, so should get across and prove hard to run down.

4 I Love Champagne (Bet Now: $4.20) is a stablemate of Dishys who is first up. He was one of the better performed Picnic horses last season, winning a host of races. Draws soft for the return, should land in a good spot and be a key threat. Market will tell you if there is enough work put in for a winning return.

2 Cordoba (Bet Now: $10.00) is a veteran that resumes and has some okay TAB form around him from last prep which reads well for a race like this. He is better suited over a bit further but has a class edge, so will be interesting to see what the market does with him.

I’m a bit surprised 12 Fabrikka (Bet Now: $4.40) isn’t favourite, and a clear one at that. Resumes here for Team Hayes and I have to say, her juvenile form does reads quite well for this, with multiple winners coming out of her form. Jumped out well leading in, gets in nicely after the claim and maps well from the draw. She’s one of the better bets on the card.

10 Telecaster (Bet Now: $3.00) is a son of Vanbrugh that debuts for the Busuttin/Young camp. This guy has looked strong at trials/jumpouts and debuting on the home track, with the stable in red hot form with Daniel Moor to steer, can understand why he is favourite. Market will tell you if he’s wound up.

1 Cognet (Bet Now: $20.00) is a Greg Eurell trained gelding that resumes. He is better suited over further but I think can sprint well fresh on his home track. Draws to do no work in the run and should be strong late so while I’m not sure he wins, he is one I’d include as a first four contender.

12 Telegraph (Bet Now: $2.50) on top. This Price/Kent trained three year old returns to racing as a gelding. Debuted as a colt back in early January down the straight at Flemington when good late from the back behind Abseiler. Liked his recent jumpout win and if he’s going to be city class, he has to be winning here, and I think he will be.

1 Brut Star (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Zoustar gelding for the Busuttin/Young camp that is on debut. This guy had a trial here back in March where he didn’t exactly fire. Spelled, and has jumped out quite well to get ready. Draws soft for start one on his home track and overall, the depth here isn’t strong, so watch the market.

11 My Yankee Girl (Bet Now: $6.00) is a daughter of American Pharoah on debut for John Salanitri. This girl had two jumpouts in the Winter and looked pretty good to the eye. Spelled and thought she moved alright in a recent Tatura trial. Overall, this isn’t a strong race, so she doesn’t need to be a star to be competitive.

I think this is a race where you could speck one at a big price, so I’m doing that with 12 Sabre Athena (Bet Now: $35.00). She debuted in the Oaks Trial at Flemington, a tough ask really, and though beaten 12 lengths by Barb Raider, I thought she was far from disgraced. Bred to eat up a trip, Blinkers on, drops miles in depth, and $31+ seems a bit silly I feel, so happy to have 1×3.

11 Fabiola (Bet Now: $2.70) comes through the Oaks Trial. She had the A1 run in transit behind the speed and she battled on pretty well, albeit more than six lengths away. Showed promise in her runs prior to that, so is a deserving favourite, but the price gap between her and Sabre Athena is far too great IMO.

8 Balsamic Vinegar (Bet Now: $4.50) is another I could have something small on at odds. Her two career runs to date have been pretty good. Both times she has got back in the run and never really been a winning threat, but her finale has been more than sound. Does no work from the draw and has upside to come.

I’m with 1 Blandford Lad (Bet Now: $5.00). Peter Gelagotis trained gelding that to the eye, was just fair at Mornington last time, but given the race shape and where he was in the run, he had no chance, and actually, his run was very good. Tempo should be more genuine this time around and he’ll take beating.

2 Border Leicester (Bet Now: $3.80) is on the seven day back up after racing last Friday night at the Valley. It turned into a real slog over 3000m and he battled on really well when second to True Marvel. Fitness certainly won’t be an issue and stable wouldn’t back up unless he came through the run in a positive way.

6 Trigger Point (Bet Now: $6.50) will likely lead this field up and give cheek. That is what he did in the Mornington race mentioned above. Led them at a crawling tempo and fought on really well when fourth. Should get a cheap lead again and at Cranbourne, on speed/rail is the spot to be.

9 The Brumby (Bet Now: $2.90) was scratched from last Saturday to be saved for this. Dominant win two back over 1500m at Morphettville. Then went to Sandown where he sat off the speed under Lloyd before angling into clear air and let down strongly to get the job done. That form does read well for this.

4 Military Mission (Bet Now: $3.80) is the big query here. Former UK galloper that makes his Australian debut for the WaterBott. His best form came over a staying trip, but has trialled well leading in and could easily blow this field away, so the market will be fascinating.

2 Saccharo (Bet Now: $8.50) has the Blinkers back on, which should spark improvement from this Archie Alexander trained gelding. Last run came at Flemington when well back in the run and closed off alright without threatening. Hopefully the Blinkers can spark him into action.

This looks a real target race for 3 Mahashakti (Bet Now: $2.90) and in what looks a clear two horse, I think she’s the way to go. Was a few weeks between runs when contesting the Benalla Cup last time and kept finding the line in a really good effort when third to Starcaster. Hard fit now, back to Mares grade, she’ll take a power of beating.

2 Impecunious (Bet Now: $2.80) has home track advantage and has to be respected. She comes through the stronger form line of the Stocks Stakes at the Valley when unlucky and should have finished closer behind So You Assume. Should love the rise in trip and has class.

6 Johandough (Bet Now: $7.00) lacks the class of the first two, but she is a mare who can roll forward and make sure this is a proper 2000m contest. Resumed over the mile at Flemington and just looked in need of the run behind Mr Brightside. Fitter and up in trip, an improved showing is on the cards.

If 5 Marsannay (Bet Now: $2.50) is going to run at blacktype level, he has to be winning this, and I think he will. Resumes as a gelding for the WaterBott team after a solid Autumn prep, which included placings behind the likes of Forbidden Love and Yao Dash. Three trials and a jumpout to prepare, fitness won’t be an issue.

8 Vongole (Bet Now: $5.50) is flying this time in and is hard to beat on his home track. Both runs back from a spell have come at Morphettville, the latest a closing third to Rock The Ring, and his effort was excellent given the race shape was against him. If he’s within range, he can win despite the jock not being in great form in recent months.

6 Ruban Bleu (Bet Now: $10.00) hasn’t been far away of late and is a knockout chance at odds. He was good from a mile back at Benalla last time when a fast finishing fourth. Given his racing pattern, he will need luck, but if it does go his way, he’s capable of figuring in the finish.

Fresh legs back to 1400m, 12 Quintello (Bet Now: $3.40) gets the nod for me in the get out. Maher/Eustace trained mare that has produced a couple of sharp wins this prep before stepping up to the mile last start at Sandown and just failed to see it out when third to Petruchio. Maps super from the draw and is hard to beat.

5 Brazen Song (Bet Now: $6.00) gets in well after the claim and could pinch it from the front. That is what she tried to do at Mornington last time out but couldn’t quite finish it off when second to impressive winner Energy Within. She’ll put herself on speed, run along and prove hard to get past.

8 Lyrical Lad (Bet Now: $8.50) is a handy animal for Phillip Stokes that resumes. Hasn’t raced since May 29 over the mile here where he was at the end of his prep I think and just looked for the paddock when second. Like him first up at 1400m and although drawn awkwardly, is a key threat.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 5 Marsannay

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 12 Fabrikka

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 12 Sabre Athena

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 4, 8, 9

Leg Two: 2, 3

Leg Three: 5

Leg Four: 5, 6, 8, 10, 12

$50 Investment = 125% of the dividend if successful

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