7/5/2016 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Lord Mayor’s Cup day

Sydney racing returns to Rosehill this Saturday for a nine race program, where it is Lord Mayors Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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Race One (11:40) : Tab.com.au Handicap 1100m:

Back Me: 1 Aviator (Best Odds: $11.00) was a strong debut winner here at the midweeks before racing here again a fortnight back and his waywardness didn’t help him at all when sixth to impressive winner Impending. Blinkers go on for the first time and gets the services of Michael Rodd.
Big Danger: 4 Legerity (Best Odds: $4.00) was an alarming drifter first up at Canterbury but almost got the win but had to settle for a close up second to Purrari. Should be improved off that, Avdulla rides and draws a lovely gate.
Roughie: 2 Archives (Best Odds: $4.40) debuts here for Godolphin. This son of Helmet probably hasn’t trialled the best in three appearances, but in the right stable and will do no work from the gate.

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Race Two (12:15) : TAB Rewards Handicap (81) 1200m:

Back Me: I was keen at a price on 2 Turbulent Jet (Best Odds: $21.00) a fortnight back here and he just couldn’t get into the race at all behind Hetty Heights. Draws a soft gate and Winona Costin does seem to ride the horse well. In a tough race, he could be the sharp improver.
Big Danger: 1 Caped Crusader (Best Odds: $6.50) is clearly the best horse in the race hence why he has got the topweight. He hasn’t raced since early January here when midfield behind Loophole over 1900m. Recent trial win was outstanding and he might just have the class to get the job done.
Roughie: 4 Fiftyshadesofgrey (Best Odds: $16.00) was very good first up at Doomben before racing in that Hetty Heights race where she was similar to Turbulent Jet where she just couldn’t get into the race from the back.

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Race Three (12:50) : TAB Highway Handicap (Class 2) 1200m:

Back Me: 8 Dylan’s Dynasty (Best Odds: $12.00) was an impressive first up winner at Nowra before racing in a Highway at Randwick where he was completely luckless in the straight, so forget he went around. If he gets better luck here, I think he is a great each-way chance at odds.
Big Danger: 12 Lemming (Best Odds: $7.00) attempted to lead all the way last time out at Tamworth but just felt the pinch late when second to Exotic Art. Looks really well weighted with only 51kg on her back, she’ll be on speed and take some catching.
Roughie: 15 Flash In The Dark (Best Odds: $31.00) resumed over 1000m at Canberra and was just never in the race at the back given the two leaders dominated and cleared right out. Another that is right down in the weights and the extra furlong will be ideal.

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Race Four (13:25) : More Than Ready Handicap (75) 1900m:

Back Me: 3 Rodrico (Best Odds: $3.50) has won his last two starts in impressive fashion, the latest on Anzac Day over 1800m at Randwick when lumping 61kg. Gets a little bit of weight relief here, 1900m will be no issue and should get the run of the race.
Back Me: 5 Chandana (Best Odds: $4.80), on face value, was disappointing in that Imposing Lass race mentioned above, but the speed was just too slow for her and perhaps was ridden too close to the tempo. Avdulla takes over again and she rode the horse well first up.
Roughie: 4 Tatoosh (Best Odds: $26.00) isn’t one of my horses but he could improve here back up in trip. He ran behind Imposing Lass and just wasn’t suited at all by the tempo. Blinkers are off and he is Stakes placed at the track/distance.

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Race Five (14:05) : McGrath Estate Agents Handicap (77) 1200m:

Back Me: 3 Sampeah (Best Odds: $12.00) looks silly odds at $15, so I am thankful I have got that. He was completely luckless last time out at Canterbury when back in the ruck and getting held up at the top of the straight when a storming second. Draws well now with the senior rider aboard and his lone win came at this track and he hasn’t raced here since.
Big Danger: 1 Sir Bacchus (Best Odds: $2.80) was a very impressive winner here first up, aided by a brilliant steer from Jason Collett. That win was super and he only has upside, plus the claim for Rory Hutchings helps.
Roughie: 9 Lucky Fish (Best Odds: $5.00) is a handy gelding that resumes for Gai Waterhouse. His last start came over 1350m here where he looked home but was nailed on the line by star filly Asinara. Trials leading in have been super and looks well weighted with only 52.5kg on his back.

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Race Six (14:45) : Schweppes Handicap (93) 1350m:

Back Me: 3 Start Wondering (Best Odds: $2.60) looks one of the bets of the program for me. I’ve been saying for a while he is a Group l winner in waiting, and is more than likely being aimed towards the Stradbroke. He resumed for Chris Waller off the back of a handy trial at Randwick on April 22 where he ran fifth despite being on the worst part of the track. Very, very hard to beat.
Big Danger: 1 Religify (Best Odds: $4.60) ran over 1400m at Randwick last time out and looked home but was nailed late by Mighty Lucky, who franked the form by running well last weekend in the Hawkesbury Cup. 1350m on his home track looks perfect, should lead and take some holding out.
Roughie: 8 Rockolicious (Best Odds: $4.60) ran over this track/distance a fortnight back and chased hard in the run home when a close up third to Hetty Heights. Lovely weight drop here and will do no work from the good draw.

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Race Seven (15:25) : Lord Mayors Cup 2000m:

Back Me: Really keen, at a price on 12 Shoreham (Best Odds: $14.00). He ran in the Hawkesbury Cup last Saturday and just had to do too much work in coming out wide from the inside gate behind Amovatio. Up to 2000m and being fourth up are two positives, but the big one for me is the seven day back up. Going back through his form, he has backed up within 10 days on several occasions resulting in a win, a couple of placings and a fourth. Great bet for me on an each way basis.
Big Danger: 1 Havana Cooler (Best Odds: $4.80) scored an impressive first up win in the Doncaster Prelude (1500m) here before racing in the JRA Plate (2000m) at Randwick where he ran an unlucky third to Guardini. Unlucky in the sense that he should have finished closer, but wouldn’t have won, but being third up now, he should be ready to peak.
Roughie: 7 Hawkspur (Best Odds: $17.00) ran over this trip at Randwick on Anzac Day and got bogged down by the 61.5kg impost when finishing midfield behind Lady Le Fay. The run behind Guardini in the JRA Plate was very good on the wrong part of the track, and for mine he could be another sharp improver here at odds.

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Race Eight (16:05) : Pro-Ride Handicap (78) 1100m:

Back Me: 11 Daysee Doom (Best Odds: $2.80) is two from two for Ron Quinton, the latest resulting in a dominant display at Canterbury. Harder here, but there is alot to like about her and she has enormous upside.
Big Danger: 5 Pioneering (Best Odds: $6.00) resumes here for Chris Waller. Trial was nothing flash, but his form here reads well, including a closing fourth to Asinara. Gate one and Avdulla steers.
Roughie: 12 Zelda (Best Odds: $11.00) resumed in that race Daysee Doom saluted in at Canterbury and her effort was very good from the back in a race dominated on speed. Needs a bit to go her way here, but she is a definite chance at odds.

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Race Nine (16:45) : Hyland Race Colours Handicap (72) 1500m:

Back Me: 19 Francesco (Best Odds: $16.00) resumed at Kembla Grange a tick over three weeks back and worked home alright late when fourth to Reincarnate, who went on to win at Warwick Farm. Needs enormous luck from the gate, but if he gets it, he is a chance.
Big Danger: 12 So Willie (Best Odds: $10.00) resumed over 1200m here a fortnight back where he started bolters odds yet ran on strongly when second to stablemate Sir Bacchus. He will eat up the extra trip here, runs well second up and I am tipping the form out of that race to be strong.
Roughie: 9 Zabeelions (Best Odds: $12.00) resumed at Randwick on Anzac Day and looked a touch unlucky when second to Kiseki Dane given he got held up a touch for a run at a vital stage. Probably looking for further than 1500m, but he is trained on the track and did run a good race against the tempo second up last time in at Kembla Grange.

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Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 8

Leg Two: 1, 2, 7, 11, 12, 15

Leg Three: 4, 5, 11, 12

Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 12, 19

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.