A strong nine event program has been set down to be run and won at Caulfield this Saturday with good depth right across the meeting. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:30) : Peter Siggins Plate 1100m:
Back Me: 5 Siam (Bet Now: $5.50) is an Exceed And Excel colt that debuts for John O’Shea and Godolphin. Has had a couple of jump outs at Flemington in preparation for his first day at the races and to the eye he has been quite impressive. Keep in mind also that he has been nommed a couple of times prior, so they’ve taken their time. May be rewarded here.
Big Danger: 6 Catchy (Bet Now: $1.80) debuted under the lights of Moonee Valley on December 9 and produced a lovely turn of foot from well back in the run to gather them up in the final few strides and get the win, beating home Garrard, who has ran well at Doomben, and the third horse won at Flemington on New Years Day. Ticks plenty of boxes here.
Long Shot: 1 Kedlestone (Bet Now: $9.00) is the horse with race fitness on his side so he has to be respected. Debuted in the Merson Cooper where he was heavily backed and ran a game fourth before going to the Valley and running second to Cao Cao, who is being touted as a Blue Diamond contender. Draws a touch wide, but I think he can slide forward and take some beating.
Race Two (13:00) : Ike Hollingworth Handicap (70) 1100m:
Back Me: 8 Powerful Story (Bet Now: $11.00) is a talented mare that resumed for Colin Little on Werribee Cup Day where she got held up slightly at the top of the straight, and on a day where it was hard to make ground, losing momentum was a killer. But to her credit, she finished off strongly behind Sister Kitty Mac, who wasn’t disgraced at Flemington behind Miss Wonderland. Trained on the track and her form from last prep holds up really well in a race like this.
Big Danger: 7 Mystified (Bet Now: $6.50) looked to trial really well before trainer Ryan Balfour sent the horse to a 955m race at the Valley under the lights where she was given a peach from Oliver, railing up hard before taking a narrow gap and savaging the line to win nicely. Looks well suited up to 1100m and the speed engaged here should be ideal for her racing pattern.
Long Shot: 1 Dance With Fontein (Bet Now: $10.00) scored an impressive first up win at Moonee Valley before going to 1000m at Sandown where she chased hard all the way but couldn’t quite get the job done and had to settle for a narrow second to Crystal Dreamer. Draws to get a lovely sit off a genuine speed and she does look the overs.
Race Three (13:35) : Raymond Deagan Handicap (84) 1200m:
Back Me: 8 Cana (Bet Now: $3.50) is a talented mare that has been freshened up for Team Hawkes since racing at the Valley in late November where she was ridden a treat by Moloney on speed and it deserved the win but she was grabbed on the post by Kings Command, who has been sound since. Can sprint well fresh and looks as one of the hardest to beat.
Big Danger: 4 Danuki (Bet Now: $6.00) strung together three very impressive wins on the board before racing down the straight at Flemington where he was heavily backed to win but after leading, he just tired late to finish midfield behind Decision Time. Back on his home track now, senior rider on and maps well.
Long Shot: 6 Bon Rocket (Bet Now: $5.50) resumed down the straight at Flemington where he had solid market support at odds and gave a really good kick but was nabbed near the peg by rank outsider My Survivor. Don’t worry about who won, Bon Rocket was sound in defeat. Should come on from that and is a live chance.
Race Four (14:10) : Margot McCluskey Handicap (70) 1400m:
Back Me: 7 No Tan Tat (Bet Now: $4.00) is an above average looking filly who broke the maiden tag in impressive fashion at Geelong when leading throughout and bolting in. Form has been okay subsequent and though aided a touch by bias, she was dominant. Confident she can handle the step up here.
Big Danger: 3 Alma’s Rossa (Bet Now: $5.00) strung together two sharp wins on her home track at Warrnambool before going to Sandown where she got back in the ruck and finished off her race with real purpose when fourth to the well performed Fille Champagne. Small field here should ensure she won’t be too far away and the claim for Ben Thompson really helps her winning claims.
Long Shot: 9 Special Dive (Bet Now: $6.00) put together a couple of nice efforts prior to racing over 1200m at Geelong on Boxing Day where she had late market support and it proved spot on as she was ridden near the speed by Daniel Moor and once he pushed the button, it was game over, winning by a space. Looks as if she will have no issue with 1400m and is on her home track.
Race Five (14:45) : Ian Morrison Handicap (70) 1700m:
Back Me: 3 Balf’s Choice (Bet Now: $6.50) closed off strongly against the tempo at Flemington when third to Electric Tribute before coming here on Boxing Day where he chased hard all the way but was no match the rising star that is Plein Ciel. Looks ready to tackle 1700m now and does receive a significant drop in depth.
Big Danger: 10 Royal Applause (Bet Now: $4.80) is a mare who is absolutely flying for the Wilde camp but has just had no luck in recent times. She ran over the mile here on Boxing Day where she sat back in the run and closed off her race nicely when second to the potential star that is Plein Ciel. Williams jumps back aboard and the rise to 1700m suits.
Long Shot: 9 Skulduggery (Bet Now: $8.50) made a mess of them two back at Geelong before racing at Sandown on Wednesday where he had good market support at a price and despite laying in at various stages, he chased hard but was grabbed near the peg by Lola Lu. Stable have been known to successfully pull of the quick back up, so don’t be shocked to see this horse run well.
Race Six (15:20) : Mary Lewis Handicap (84) 1100m:
Back Me: 2 Lyuba (Bet Now: $4.80) is a ripping mare for Darren Weir who doesn’t know how to run a bad race. Toughed it out strongly to win down the straight at Flemington before coming here on Boxing Day where she looked to get badly held up at a vital stage in the straight when others around her were building up momentum to run second to Tykiato. I think with better luck here she can bounce back.
Big Danger: 6 Ameristralia (Bet Now: $1.95) strung together three very impressive wins during the Spring, including a spank job of several subsequent winners over 1000m here, before she tackled Stakes company and was far from disgraced behind Sheidel, who went on to win again and be competitive in a couple of Group l races. Looks so well in at the weights given her rating, jump outs have been good and she flies fresh.
Long Shot: 8 Prussian Vixen (Bet Now: $21.00) resumed over 1000m at Sandown a fortnight back where she had a comfortable run outside the tempo and stuck to the task pretty gamely in defeat when fourth to Crystal Dreamer. Draws to get over without doing much work I think and she does run well second up.
Race Seven (16:00) : Swettenham Stud Summer Championship Heat 7 (84) 1800m:
Back Me: 5 Plein Ciel (Bet Now: $2.15) is a rising star for Darren Weir who has the potential to be a Group l horse this season. Bolted up in his first two runs this time in at Warrnambool and Sandown respectively before coming here on Boxing Day where he faced his toughest test and passed it with flying colours, bolting in once again. Can only see him better suited at 1800m…looks the winner.
Big Danger: 2 Cool Chap (Bet Now: $5.50) is a quality gelding that comes back to racing for the Freedmans after a solid but frustraing Spring. He performed quite well in Melbourne during the Spring but just couldn’t quite get the job done and greet the judge. Freshened up, mile suits and meets a very thin field. Market will be the key guide.
Long Shot: 10 Manhattan Boss (Bet Now: $13.00) toyed with them when resuming at Bendigo in what has turned out to be a hot form race before going to Flemington where he got back in the run and just stayed there behind Kenjorwood. That form has also held up though the Lord Stakes, plus he may have raced flat, so perhaps the third up bounce back is on the cards.
Race Eight (16:40) : Swettednham Stud Summer Championshop Heat 8 1600m:
Back Me: I think you have to forgive 3 Burning Front (Bet Now: $5.50) for his failure at Sandown due to the fact that the ride just wasn’t great from Jye McNeil IMO. Held the horse up too much and then when Yendall carved over on Inspector, the horse just couldn’t respond. He is a horse who likes to be rolling and in the clear, so the Caulfield mile should suit him perfectly.
Big Danger: 10 The New Boy (Bet Now: $8.50) is a slight risk at the mile but gee he has returned this time in so well. He was game wehn resuming on a hot speed at Flemington behind Snoppy before racing over 1400m here on Boxing Day where he chased the speed again and fought on strongly when third to Hard Call. Maps very well outside Mihany I think and will only carry 52kg. Hard to hold out.
Long Shot: 4 Chance To Dance (Bet Now: $4.60) is such an interesting runner here. Lloyd Williams runner that hasn’t raced since finishing down the track in the Winter Championship Final behind Iggimacool. You only have to go back to last to see the quality he can produce, which is better than anything else engaged here. Definite market watch.
Race Nine (17:20) : David McGee Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: 1 King’s Command (Bet Now: $3.90) was ridden beautifully by Ben Thompson to win fresh at the Valley and though beaten at his next two starts, he has been quite good in a couple of strong events, the latest over 1400m here on Boxing Day when making up ground behind Hard Call. Back to 1200m suits, hard fit and ready to peak.
Big Danger: 9 Violent Snow (Bet Now: $8.50) bounced back to winning form over this track/distance on Boxing Day where she was ridden a treat near the speed by Regan Bayliss and gave a really good kick when challenged over the final 100m to score a narrow but decisive victory. He remains on the mare here and this doesn’t appear to be an overly strong event.
Long Shot: 7 Hell On Earth (Bet Now: $13.00) was a dominant winner over Morphettville two back before racing there again where he sat behind a hot speed and I think that just gassed him late when midfield behind Woakwine. Back to 1400m is a big tick for mine, and despite the rise in depth the stable is absolutely flying and looks well placed.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 5 Plein Ciel
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 2 Lyuba
VALUE: Race Two Number 8 Powerful Story
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 6
Leg Two: 5
Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 5, 10
Leg Four: 1, 3, 5, 7, 9
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