7/9/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick, Chelmsford Stakes day

The Spring Carnival in Sydney continues this Saturday at Randwick where it is Chelmsford Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.

Chelmsford Stakes 🏆: View the Chelmsford Stakes Field

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I’m really keen to see how 3 Funstar (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) measures up. One of the founding members of her fan club but bias aside, it’s not often you see a Winter juvenile take the big step to Spring company. Can she be an exception? The form around her two wins doesn’t read great, but she’s looked well above average and loved the way she went in a recent trial. Flight Stakes is her GF so whatever she does here, she’ll improve on, but I think she has the class/quality to win.

Just how good is 4 Yao Dash? (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) He was very impressive when winning on debut at the midweeks at Canterbury, sitting on speed and despite handling the home turn terribly, once he balanced up, he really put them away and won like a really good horse going places. Probably too soon re Golden Rose, but given that’s been discussed for him tells you the talent he has.

6 Maddi Rocks (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) is a handy filly for Chris Waller who was scratched from the Ming Dynasty last Saturday, with the stable electing to wait for firmer footing, which she gets here. She ran second to Pandemic on the Kenso track three weeks ago and looked to have her chance. Was just beaten by a better horse. Think history will repeat itself, but she’s talented.

1 Equal Balance (Bet Now: $41.00 TOP ODDS) for me. Kurt Goldman has had good success in the Highway in recent weeks and I think he can continue that here with this bloke. His late splits weren’t too bad fresh in a strong provincial race at Wyong before going to Moruya where he just got too far back off a moderate speed, but found the line strongly behind a city performer in Leami Astray. Third up at 1200m back to this level, he appeals.

4 Hit The Target (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is an interesting runner. Trainer Stephen Jones is talking this horse up as a potential Kosciuszko candidate and can’t argue with his form from the Autumn, with some excellent efforts in strong races. Thought his trial behind Suncraze was sharp and Jones did say that this horse was a near good thing wherever he resumes, so watch the market and see what it does with him.

9 Rioli (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS) is one of a few that comes through the Highway from two weeks ago here won by Charlotte’s Heart. He was most unlucky and I think he should have gone close to winning. Just had no luck in the straight when bolting for a run and it was an ugly watch if you were on. Like him up to 1200m and with good speed engaged again, he’ll get his chance. Just needs better luck.

1 Bleu Roche (Bet Now: $3.70 TOP ODDS) is a talented mare that is now with Team Snowden after formerly being with Matt Laurie. She showed good talent when racing in Victoria, her career best run being the win down the Flemington straight on Oaks Day last year. Liked the way she has trialled up leading into her return and hopefully the track will dry right out for her chances.

3 Miss Invincible (Bet Now: $3.40 TOP ODDS) is a short course specialist for Bjron Baker who finds a nice race. She comes through the Royal Witness race from three weeks ago on the Kenso track when near the speed throughout and tried hard but couldn’t quite get the job done and had to settle for fourth. I reckon 1100m sees her right out, but with the right run, I think she can win.

6 Jay Jay D’ar (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) is an interesting runner. Formerly with Patrick Payne, this mare is now under the care of Chris Waller. Last raced on Mildura Cup Day and was an impressive winner after doing work in the run. Was good late in a recent Flemington jumpout and J Mac is booked. Lacks the class of some of these, but she could easily measure up with the Waller polish.

I think this is D-Day for 3 Baller (Bet Now: $2.25 TOP ODDS) and whether or not he’s a Stakes class horse or not. If he is, he has to be putting this field away. I was keen on him running well first up in the Show County and I thought he had every chance behind Deprive and it was just a run, nothing great. Back to 78 grade with Nash on, gee he looks well placed and if he’s going any good, he’ll be beating these.

You could say it’s also D-Day for 2 Murillo (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS). He came over from overseas with some decent wraps on him but he hasn’t quite lived up to the early hype and for the most part has been disappointing. In saying that, I thought there was merit in his first up run on the Kenso track behind All Too Royal after getting back in the run. Can sit much closer from the good draw and finds a really winnable race.

5 Noble Joey (Bet Now: $51.00 TOP ODDS) has struggled for form in recent times but he does look to get speed map favours here and could lead for fun. He led at a good tempo last start in the All Too Royal race mentioned above and felt the pinch late. Better suited here I think, looks the leader and he should give a sight if he’s anywhere near right…just a matter of how well is he going.

Looks rather straight forward here with 2 Libertini (Bet Now: $1.18). Don’t really need to say too much about her. The replay of the win first up two weeks ago said it all. Gave the track record a little nudge despite being first up and not fully extended, the change up speed was that of a star…and she looked as if she would take good improvement from that outing. Barring bad luck, she wins again.

5 Let It Pour (Bet Now: $13.00) has claims to being the best maiden in Australia at the moment, but despite not winning a race, I think she’ll run well once again. Comes through the Silver Shadow behind Libertini where she was well held by that star filly, but didn’t turn it up and stuck to the task pretty well in defeat. She’ll be winning races, nice races…won’t be here, but she’s one for multiples.

3 Probabeel (Bet Now: $13.00) is an interesting runner. This filly is first up, having not raced since the Sires Produce here when a game fifth to Microphone in what was a high rating race. Been given a good break, like the way she trialled back home in NZ, she gets gate one and J Mac to steer. Don’t think she beats Libertini, but should run well all the same as she eyes off the Flight.

With a stack of speed here, it should set up perfectly for 3 Nature Strip (Bet Now: $2.20) to get the sit off it and pounce. I’ve loved the way he has trialled leading into this, twice, and the big ticks are that he’s been able to take a sit behind the speed and he hasn’t been as aggressive compared to previous runs. Chris Waller looks to have worked his magic and I’m a believer in him now.

The horse that is stupid odds is 1 Redzel (Bet Now: $6.50). The double figures earlier in the week was priced, I think, on what he did in the Autumn, where he clearly wasn’t 100% and was injured. Is over those niggles and has trialled brilliantly (twice) leading in. He jumps, runs, likely leads and at 1000m, he could bully his way to victory and he does have the runs on the board.

Is the forgotten horse 5 Graff (Bet Now: $7.50)? It’s rare for Kris Lees to be bullish, but gee he’s been talking this horse up and is desperate to get him into the Everest. Loved the change up speed when winning a recent trial at Newcastle and he’s another that will love a brutal tempo. He’ll sit off it and launch late. If he’s going to be a chance to get one of the remaining slots, he needs to make a statement.

It’s not quite a case of #AnyPrice for 1 Avilius (Bet Now: $2.00) but he’s clearly the horse to beat. 1400m first up in the Winx Stakes was always going to be an ask given he’s being considered a Melbourne Cup horse, so for him to run so well and clock outstanding late splits tells me he’s come back well. Gets out to the mile, fitter…looks a perfect race for him to get back into the winners list.

12 Unforgotten (Bet Now: $7.50) should run really well second up. This mare resumed in the Winx Stakes and was good in defeat behind Samadoubt after getting well back in the run and somewhat run off her legs. Finished off with real purpose in a good return. Won this race in outstanding fashion last year and appears to be going just as well 12 months on. Can she beat Avilius?

It’s just about D-Day for 13 Youngstar (Bet Now: $31.00) and her future I dare say. She hasn’t really done much since her outstanding sixth in the Melbourne Cup last year. Did look big in condition first up in the Winx Stakes but I thought it was just a run, nothing great, behind Samadoubt. You’d like to assume she’ll improve big time off that run and at her best, she’s in the mix.

I think the safe option here is 4 Dreamforce (Bet Now: $5.50), the Doncaster runner up resuming. Hasn’t raced since that effort in the big mile when a narrow second to Brutal in an on pace dominated affair. Loved the way he has looked in three trials and map wise, he should get the run of the race, perhaps in the 1/1 behind Penske and Tom Melbourne. Hard to beat.

What do we do with 2 Te Akau Shark? (Bet Now: $2.60) Very interesting runner from NZ who comes here off the back of a first up run in the Foxbridge at Te Rapa where he just had far too much to do but got close to knocking off Endless Drama, who was awful last Saturday, but that form did produce Melody Belle to win the same race. Is he good enough? We’ll get a good guide here.

11 Kaonic (Bet Now: $41.00) is a knockout chance for me. Talented animal for Chris Waller that is resuming. He’s always showed good ability this horse and once upon a time was regarded as a serious Group l talent but he just hasn’t quite gone on with it. Wet tracks hurt him in the Autumn so I think scrap that prep. Trialled well a few weeks back and 1400m fresh tells me he’s ready to go.

If 15 Re Edit (Bet Now: $5.00) is right, I think she’ll go close. Chris Waller trains this mare, who hasn’t raced since contesting the Queensland Derby, which was probably an afterthought in hindsight off the back of an outstanding run in the O’Shea against some quality WFA gallopers. Been given a break and gee she looked to be trucking in a recent trial here. Her best is good enough to beat these.

8 Scarlet Dream (Bet Now: $5.00) looks the key threat. Resumes for Mark Newnham after a mixed Autumn/Winter, where the highlight was clearly her second to Verry Elleegant in the Oaks before going to the Roses at Doomben where she was good from the back before being spelled. Liked the way she has trialled leading in and draws well for J Mac. But if you go back to the Roses, Re Edit meets her some 7kg better off and beat her home that day.

I’m not sure what the Snowden camp has in mind for 18 Carif (Bet Now: $13.00) but I thought his resumption over 1400m here two weeks ago was a beauty. He was back in the run in a race completely dominated by those on speed so he really had no chance but loved the way he found the line late. 2000m+ is when he’ll come into his own, but first up tells me he’s got enough speed in the legs to be competitive.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 Avilius

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 3 Baller

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 1 Equal Balance

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5

Leg Two: 1

Leg Three: 2, 4, 8, 11, 13

Leg Four: 6, 8, 15, 18

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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