7/9/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont

A nine race card has been assembled for Belmont this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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5 Black Ducati (Bet Now: $2.30) on top for me. Michael Lane trains this mare, who resumed over 1300m here a couple of Wednesdays back where she took an absolute eternity to wind up but she picked up late and got up to win near the peg. Tick over trial on Monday at Lark Hill was good and up to 1400m looks ideal, despite perhaps wanting a bit further. Hard to beat.

2 Zephyr Queen (Bet Now: $2.60) is a Jim Taylor trained mare who is in ripping form at the moment. Ran over 1200m here a fortnight ago when sitting off a hot speed before picking up the leader early on in the straight and she put them away impressively to continue her purple patch. Is a winner up to 1400m, so the trip is no issue and should land near the speed without doing too much work.

Back to 1400m should suit 3 Divine Shadow (Bet Now: $7.00). He ran over the mile here three weeks ago where he got well off the speed in the run and was never really a factor behind surprise winner Purist. Can sit much closer in the run from the good draw and back to 1400m looks the key to his chances. Not sure what upside he has left but gets the run of the race.

10 Alien From Mars (Bet Now: $4.50) on top. Bob Turrell trains this mare, who has been good in two career outings to date, both coming here. On debut was over 1000m and found the line well before racing at this trip and ran well when second to the above average looking Morton runner, Sherpa Lass. Think that form reads well for this and start three, she should know what the caper is about now.

Really interesting runner is 6 Midnight Hour (Bet Now: $8.00), a Jason Pateman trained galloper that resumes. He kicked off his career in the Winter with a couple of runs and didn’t really set the world on fire each time. Been spelled and though resumes without a trial, interesting he resumes in town and the fact that the stable finds Pike to ride might well be a lead.

3 Carmel Bay (Bet Now: $81.00) is suited up to 1200m. Went way too keen over the mile two back at Northam before dropping back to 1000m last Thursday at Northam and thought he was okay late behind a filly who I have time for, Jenja. Gets more ground now and looks to be a bit of speed engaged. Can’t say I’d back him to win, but I think he’s one for multiples.

The times have been slow but I’ve been impressed by the way that 8 Brave Dream (Bet Now: $2.80) has trialled for Team Williams. He’s had the one trial this time in, which came at Lark Hill last Monday when winning over the 950m in slow time, but I liked the way he moved. Interesting that he debuts in town at a Saturday meet, a bit unusual for the stable, but have to respect the fact that he is.

5 Some Sort (Bet Now: $2.50) lacks the class of some of these but he’s hard fit and racing well. Ran over this track/distance last Wednesday when on speed and giving a good kick in the straight but was nabbed late by Celebrity Queen. He lands on speed from the good draw and should get a good run in transit. Has fitness on his side and that will carry him a long way.

3 Rio Del Mar (Bet Now: $5.50) is a talented filly for Simon Miller that resumes. This girl had a three run Autumn prep, winning her second start in the Gimcrack before running a game seventh in a brutally run Karrakatta. Been given a good break and her trial back on August 19 was quite good to the eye. Has the speed to lead and will give a bold sight. Last 50m will be the test.

I think he’s one of the better gambles on the program is 2 Stratocreed (Bet Now: $4.20). He resumed over 1200m here at the midweeks on August 21 where he was building the revs nicely but just couldn’t quite finish it off when a close up sixth to Stable Secret. Think he will take really good improvement from that outing and up to 1400m from the draw, he certainly appeals.

5 Pearl Trade (Bet Now: $6.50) isn’t one of mine and I couldn’t back her to win with stolen money, but gee she finds a really winnable race here. Hasn’t raced for three weeks since running fifth to Why Choose Her after getting a decent enough run nearer the speed. Gets the Pacifiers removed, a good gate, little break between runs, no depth to the field…she’s hard to beat if she has a go.

9 Locklear (Bet Now: $16.00) is an honest type for Brian Rogers. She ran over 1200m here last Wednesday where she set a pretty decent gallop and gave a good kick when asked, but just felt the pinch late when third to Pletto. That leaves me with reservations about him at 1400m, but she gets the lead, she’ll roll along and will give a sight. Last 100-200m will be the test.

2 No Say In It (Bet Now: $4.40) looks the winner here. He’s looking like he wants more ground and he gets it here. Impressive winner at the mile two back before racing at that trip again last time and was a bit flat behind Touch Of Silver. Drops significantly in depth this time around, gets out to an ideal trip and I think his turn of foot will be far too good for this lot IMO.

3 Spiritual Warrior (Bet Now: $2.30) is a tough, tough campaigner for Justin Warwick and is in a real purple patch at the moment. He was there to be run down when racing here two weeks ago but he kept finding under McNaught and kicked strongly to get the win, narrowly but impressively. Isn’t badly treated at the weights after the claim and is one of the leading chances.

5 Mr Alby (Bet Now: $6.00) is a handy stayer for Paula Wagg that comes through the Spiritual Warrior race from two weeks ago here when off the speed and trying hard, but just didn’t have the turn of foot to get the job done when fourth to the Warwick runner. Think he can turn the tables if able to sit closer in the run and if that’s the case, he can take this out for sure.

I think class/brilliance gets 10 Amelia’s On Fire (Bet Now: $2.00) home here. Simon Miller trains this filly, who hasn’t raced since the Karrakatta Plate when setting a fast speed and feeling the pinch late, but was outstanding in defeat when fourth. Loved the way she went in a recent Lark Hill trial…surely she jumps, runs, leads and wins? Especially with the claim for Azzopardi.

It’s nearly three years since 9 Rockafella (Bet Now: $8.00) has won a race but from a soft gate, he’ll run well. He resumed over this track/distance two weeks ago and found the line quite well late when fourth to impressive winner Night Voyage. Can he beat Amelia’s On Fire? On form, I’d say no, but he does have the run under the belt and will do no work from the gate.

7 Guns Of Navarone (Bet Now: $15.00) is a tricky one to trust/follow but I thought his resumption in the Night Voyage race mentioned above was good. Held up early on in the straight when having something to offer and though he finished fifth, I think he should have finished much closer in a total forgive. Is a winner second up and hopefully the track can dry out.

Been a while since 1 In Love With Paris (Bet Now: $4.40) has faced a field as weak as this, so if he can’t go close to beating these, then there is doubts on him and his future. He ran over 1400m here last Saturday and did a pretty good job in defeat I thought when a close up fifth to Mad Brad, his first run in a few weeks, so he should take good improvement from that and back to 64 grade, he’s well placed.

7 Trakiato (Bet Now: $6.00) is a little query at 1300m but Team Pearce has him going really well at the moment. He ran over 1200m here two weeks ago when getting the dream sit off the speed and was there to win but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Little Fish. The depth here, overall, isn’t as strong, he draws well…just a little query on how strong he’ll run out the trip.

3 Get Over It (Bet Now: $19.00) is three weeks between runs for Mark Bairstow since racing over 1400m here where he sat around midfield in the run, in a reasonable spot, and was there to do something positive at the top of the straight, but just whacked away behind Go Crying. Back to 1300m I like…just a concern about where he gets to in the run from a tricky gate.

Keen to see 5 Cup Night (Bet Now: $2.40) resume. Talented animal for Bernie Miller that won 3/3 last time in, including a Stakes win in the Raconteur before being spelled. Is he a horse that could measure up to better races during the Ascot Carnival? Good test here over an unsuitable trip first up, first time against older horses, but loved the way he went in a recent trial.

8 Nelson’s Flight (Bet Now: $7.00) has had a little freshen up, having not raced since July 20 over 1400m here when wide no cover for the trip and feeling the pinch late behind the then in form Snowchino. His best is certainly good enough to measure up here and I think he does race best when on speed and rolling, which is what could potentially eventuate here.

7 Count Tomoz Off (Bet Now: $23.00) is an interesting runner. David Harrison trains this gelding, who hasn’t raced since finishing down the track over 1200m at Ascot behind the then in form Special Reward. Resumes without a trial, but was down to run a few weeks ago but instead has been kept on ice and interesting that the stable finds Chris Parnham to ride first up.

I think the mile will suit 12 Beauty Kanas (Bet Now: $5.00). He was very good over 1400m here two back when beaten a lip by Blackwood Rive before remaining at that trip last start and he just didn’t have the zip in the legs behind Regal Counsel. When trained by David Payne, his efforts and form at the mile were quite good and now he gets out to that trip. Keen on his chances.

7 Beaucount (Bet Now: $7.50) might be wanting a bit further but one thing we do know with this horse is that he’ll, jump, run, lead and roll along, which is what he did at this track/distance two weeks ago and gave a good kick but just felt the pinch late when third to Witness In Court. Looks the leader once again and will give a sight. Just needs to hold on.

1 Battle Torque (Bet Now: $15.00) looks well placed back to this level. He’s contested much stronger races than this at his past few and for the most part has been disappointing, but as I said, he’s contested races with good depth to them. This is one of the weaker races he has contested in some time and with the claim for McNaught, the set up is there to run a much improved race.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 5 Cup Night

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 5 Black Ducati

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 2 Stratocreed

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine): 

Leg One: 9, 10

Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 7, 8

Leg Three: 5

Leg Four: 1, 7, 9, 12

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