7/12/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ballarat, Ballarat Cup day

A bumper ten race card has been set down for Ballarat on Saturday for Ballarat Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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2 Aleppo Pine (Bet Now:  $SP.00) could be a good thing here after scratchings. He is a well related colt that has looked like a rocket in jumpout work at Flemington, the latest seeing him lead throughout and under a hold won comfortably. If he brings that here, I think he wins.

5 Neverenoughlego (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team Hayes colt that is also on debut. He jumped out behind Aleppo Pine and was solid without being as impressive. He got back off the speed and under riding, did make up ground, but didn’t look as flashy as the Godolphin. But, the stable have had a good start to the season with their juveniles so watch the market.

7 Pafitis (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a watch horse. Churchill colt that is on debut for Ciaron Maher off the back of a couple of jumpouts, the first one being quite good to the eye before the second one being run in poor conditions so hard to get a guide. But, with this stable, you have to respect any market moves.

3 Dream All Day (Bet Now:  $SP.00) and is one of the key chances. He resumed over this track/distance where he gave them a start and a beating, rounding them up from last and won by a space in solid enough time. Form around him is strong and he looks to have returned a much better horse. Keen.

6 Dunori (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will put himself on speed and give a sight, as he did on debut at this track/distance when leading and he gave a strong kick but had no answers late for the finale of Somewhere, who was impressive from the back. Better for the run and if he gets front end control, he takes beating.

4 Juggernaut Joan (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will put herself on speed and take beating after resuming with an all the way win at Geelong, getting front end control and credit to her, she was there to be beaten but she found under pressure to fend them off. Good upside, good racing style, she can win.

4 Zebella (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hard to beat off a freshen up for mine. Phillip Stokes trained mare that hasn’t raced since Oct 19 when on speed over 1200m at Morphettville and tried hard but couldn’t quite see it through when third to Pearl Adios. Looked sharp in a trial win last week and with her racing style, she’ll give herself every chance.

10 Illative (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is much better suited at this level and appeals. She ran three weeks ago in the How Now where she just found them a bit sharp but I will say, the sit/sprint set up wasn’t to her liking. Better suited here, the win prior was strong, she commands respect.

9 Extremely Rowdy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes through the How Now from three weeks back at Caulfield. She got back and wide in the run but kept on and was pretty good in defeat despite being outclassed on paper behind Niance. Back to 78 grade, she’s hard to beat if there is petrol left in the tank.

4 Pharari (Bet Now:  $SP.00) picks herself. She should have won over 1100m at Caulfield three weeks ago but got badly held up at the wrong stage when building the revs, eventually getting clear and drove hard late to just miss. Hit and miss she is, but off last run, out of trouble, she takes beating.

3 Miss Roumbini (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have returned really well and is one of the key prospects. She comes through the How Now at Caulfield when first up and against the pattern, worked home strongly when third to Niance. This looks well within her reach and with good upside, rates highly.

5 Modown (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes here with fresh legs for Charlotte Littlefield, having not raced since Geelong Cup Day where he seemed to have every chance in transit but was a bit on the plain side late when fourth to Oh Too Good. That form does read well and I do think fresh legs, back to 1200m, he has the runs on the board to give this a shake.

15 Unseen Ruler (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is worth a throw at the stumps in what looks an even contest. He ran at The Valley last time out when fourth to Van Roy and I think had he got clear air earlier, he goes close to winning but it ended up being an ugly watch. If the breaks go his way, I think he’ll take holding out.

9 Madame Odette (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise in trip. First run for Team Hayes came three weeks ago at Caulfield over 1400m when a fair way out of her ground and while she was never a winning threat, she kept finding the line and was pretty good in defeat. Better set up here, good upside, she is a leading contender.

3 Kaizad (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and give cheek. He ran three weeks back at Caulfield when attempting to lead throughout and he gave a good sight but just couldn’t quite see it through when fifth to Regal Vow. Hard fit now and with front end control, he’ll take running down.

Keen to be with 15 Tiffany Valentine (Bet Now:  $SP.00). I can make a case to say she should have won at Caulfield three weeks ago but she had a 3kg apprentice on and I just don’t think an inexperienced rider can get the best out of this mare when a close up fifth. Convinced she is flying and appeals big time against these.

9 Fission (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is knocking on the door to win. He looked the winner when he was presented clear air two weeks ago at Cranbourne but just found one better in Harry Got Styles, which does seem to be the story of his life, but he’s hard fit, in form, and strikes a winnable race.

20 Don’t Hope So (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have returned in pretty good order. He resumed over 1000m two weeks back at Cranbourne where he closed off with purpose from the back when third to Harry Got Styles. Fitter and up in trip, more positive ride, he’ll take beating.

9 Mrs Chrissie (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the one to beat if she’s ready to go. Ciaron Maher trained mare that resumes, having not raced since July 27 at Caulfield when running fourth in the Bletchingly behind stablemate Recommendation, struggling on the bog. Given a good break and her jumpout work has been sharp.

3 She Dances (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Moody/Coleman trained mare that resumes, having not raced since the How Now in 2023 when a close up third to Rose Quartz, so she has had over a year off but has trialled well and maps perfect near the speed. Market will tell you if she’s ready.

2 Acromantula (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has had a couple of runs for Team Hayes and has a good racing style for the short course. He was a strong on speed winner at The Valley two back before going to Cup Week at Flemington when down the track behind Way To The Stars. If he finds the top and gets some form of control, he’ll take catching.

17 Ruakaka Raider (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is progressive and heading in the right direction for Cindy Alderson. He landed good bets at odds when winning a few weeks back at Caulfield, finishing best under a sweet steer from Dan Stackhouse. Off that, 2000m should be fine and commands respect.

7 Savoir Faire (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat after his strong win on Cranbourne Cup Day where he got a peach ride in transit and duly made a mess of them. Tricky draw, but will press forward and take beating against these.

15 Soul Choice (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes here with fresh legs for GaiBott after racing over 2000m during Cup Week at Flemington where she was off speed and couldn’t fire a shot when down the track behind Alma Rise. Fresh legs I don’t mind for her and she did look pretty good in a tick over jumpout.

1 Future History (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should prove hard to beat here. He was thrown in the deep end in the Champions Stakes four weeks ago at Flemington and while outclassed behind Via Ssitina, he didn’t disgrace himself in defeat I thought in a really good effort. Back miles in grade/depth, he takes beating.

7 Air Assault (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect. I thought he was ridden a bit on the cute side in the Cranbourne Cup, which isn’t the way to ride him, but he drove hard late and just missed. Stuby gets back on and he knows the horse very well. Up to 2000m is find, will press forward, hard to beat.

8 Ain’tnodeeldun (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have returned in really good order and will take beating. He comes through the Light Infantry Man race from Oaks Day at Flemington where he tried hard from off the speed and kept closing when third. Hard fit and up in trip, he rates highly.

19 Dual Pressure (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks ready to win. He was one of the runs of the meeting at Cranbourne two weeks ago, getting back against the pattern and race shape but finished off strongly in a pretty good effort behind all the way winner Nation State. Hopefully with a more fair track, genuine tempo, he’ll take holding out.

5 The Open (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is on the quick back up for Team Payne after resuming last Friday night at The Valley where he just got lost around the tight track but was good late once balanced up. Fitter and up in trip, Billy back on, he is one of the leading contenders.

12 Eye Of The Eagle (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is three weeks between runs for John McArdle since racing over this trip at Caulfield where he got into a decent spot off the speed and tried hard but just couldn’t quite see it through behind Regal Vow. Not sure he is a horse I could back to win but a must for exotics.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 15 Tiffany Valentine

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 9 Mrs Chrissie

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 15 Unseen Ruler

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 9

Leg Two: 3, 7, 13, 15, 17

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 5, 7, 12, 19

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