7/11/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Burgess Queen Stakes day

Melbourne Cup Day racing in Perth heads to Ascot where it is Burgess Queen Stakes Day. Weather is fine, track is soft (5) and the rail is out ten metres for the entire circuit.

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Not much of an exciting race to start the meeting but I am leaning the way of 1 Go Go Grommet (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who resumes for Tiarnna Robertson. This gelding is first up, having not raced since July 20 over 1200m at Pinjarra when near the speed and just battled late in the piece behind Loopy’s Baby. 1/1 fresh record and I do think 1000m is his go in life, not 1200m, so drawn soft with the claim, he’ll take beating.

2 Bayezid (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a stablemate of Go Go Grommet who should be around the mark. He ran over this track/distance at the midweeks last time where he got back to near last in the run and made up good ground late in the piece behind Bonnie Lad, beaten two lengths. Has a gate to settle much closer in the run and still be effective late.

3 Deep Point (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team Gangemi trained gelding that resumes. His last run came on August 9 at Belmont over 1000m when on speed and tried hard but just couldn’t quite pick his feet up late and tired to finish down the track behind Desert Nymph. He can sprint well on the fresh side and his recent trial was a decent piece of work. Market watch for sure.

13 Processio (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks quite clearly the one to beat IMO. Team Williams trains this filly, that debuted over 1100m at Bunbury where she was back in the run and held up badly at a crucial stage, getting clear late and finding the line with purpose when a close up third to Scorpion Ruler. Bred to eat up further, which she gets here, Pike sticks…enough for me to say she is the winner.

10 Stylish Lord (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been runner up in both career outings and is knocking on the door to win. Came back to 1300m from 1400m last time out and tried his guts out from on speed but couldn’t quite get the win when second to Guarding Heaven. Tricky draw, but should slide across and we’ve seen recently that this track is suiting those up/in.

12 Grand Reserve (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is seemingly getting better with racing and is a knockout chance. He ran over 1400m at Bunbury last start where he took forever to wind into his work but picked up late and was solid to the line without threatening behind impressive winner Janny. Start three now so he should know what the caper is about and up to 1500m looks ideal.

2 Samaria (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top but not really a race I want to get involved in. Mitch Pateman trained mare that comes here off the back of an effort over 1690m at Bunbury when near the speed throughout and she just couldn’t quite sustain the run when down the track behind Ecstasy Of Gold. Back in trip I do like and I reckon a good lead here is Pike riding. Having her on top, but just watching.

3 Kiralui (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is getting better with racing and comes here off a win, that win being a Bunbury maiden over 1400m where she finished best and despite getting the staggers late, she had enough in hand to get the win. She is the one with the least convictions and off a win, Chris Parnham to steer, she’s likeable for sure.

1 Beats Of War (Bet Now:  $SP.00) drops a fair bit in grade/depth so I think he’s a definite improver. He ran over 1200m here last time when four wide no cover for the trip, was keen, and had nothing left in the straight, finishing down the track behind Dream Devil, beaten just under four lengths. Racing like a rise in trip will suit and has upside to come.

I’ll take a chance on 3 Transcribe (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who is on debut. Son of Pierro that has had two trials this time in to get ready for start one, both over 950m at Lark Hill where each time he has looked decent enough to my eye. Debuting here and not in a maiden I find interesting but there is no depth to it and do have to respect the colours, so I reckon watch the market, but I’ll take a chance on her.

7 Cher (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the key threats for Trevor Andrews. Market wanted her with confidence when debuting over 1100m at Bunbury when near the speed throughout and she tried her guts out but she couldn’t quite get the win when a narrow second to Scorpion Ruler. Should land near the front and with good upside to come, rates highly.

6 Riseanfall (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and give them something to chase. She was big odds last start at this track/distance but she nearly pinched it from the front and it only took The Boss Lady to nab her late. Gets in well after the claim, looks the likely leader and if she runs up to last start, she’s the one to beat.

6 Climb On Top (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am leaning. Team Pearce trained gelding that resumed over 1200m here where she got back in the run but he was a real eye catcher late in the piece behind all the way winner Capricorn Man. Good improvement to come, unbeaten second up and gets a big jockey upgrade with CJP taking over. Very likeable.

3 Forever Dreaming (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been around the mark of late for Colin Webster and suspect something similar will happen here. This mare ran over 1400m here a couple of weeks ago in a race similar to this. She got a fair way out of her ground and did make up headway in a good effort behind Deamber. Think with a more positive ride, she is around the mark.

5 Split Jete (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Steven Burton trained gelding that is dangerous with his best. He hasn’t raced for a few weeks since racing at this track/distance when back off the speed and just looked a bit on the plain side behind the in form Amber Glide. Back to this level should suit and if there is petrol left in the tank, he’ll be around the mark.

1 Mercurious (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the way I am leaning. Steven Burton trains this son of Dissident that comes here off a win, which came at this track/distance when leading throughout and credit to him, he was there to be run down but he found plenty under pressure to fend them off and win. Good racing style, in form and the depth here isn’t overly deep to my eye. Happy to have him on top.

4 Mingora (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one of the leading contenders. This mare is trained by Peter Fernie, who comes here off the back of a run over the mile at Northam when attempting to lead throughout and giving a very strong kick but couldn’t quite see it through when second to Linden’s Gold. Pike sticks and with her racing pattern, she is going to get every chance to win.

2 Vevinsky (Bet Now:  $SP.00), I think, will be okay at 1800m. He was 1700m back to 1400m when racing here just over two weeks back where he got a fair way out of his ground and did make up some headway but was never threatening behind Deamber. He does have a good track/distance record and drops in grade/depth. Knockout hope.

2 Dun With The Blues (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes here with fresh legs but she does have a bit of quality about her and I reckon that will get her home. She hasn’t raced since Sep 25 when giving them a start and a beating at Belmont to take out the Toodyay Cup. Tick over trial last week was a very good piece of work and despite coming here several weeks between runs, I just think she is better than them.

1 Feuding (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is unknown at the trip but is racing like he will appreciate. He ran over 1800m here last time out when near the speed throughout and tried hard but just lacked the polish to put them away late in the piece behind Strike Now. Never pot a horse at a trip if they haven’t tried it and while he did fail at the trip previously, he’s a much better horse this time around.

12 Ocean Queen (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been a frustrating mare to follow this time in but we know she has the engine under the hood to measure up. She was four weeks between runs last start when racing over 1800m, back from 2100m, and just wasn’t quite suited by the race shape behind Mercurious, who led throughout and controlled. Fitter, back up in trip, Pike takes over, she can run an improved race.

1 Super Smink (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to give away weight, but there is a reason for that. She is an outstanding filly that resumed with a bang when taking out the Belgravia, giving them a start and a beating in an electric return over a trip clearly short of her best. Gate one could be tricky for her given she is a filly who needs time to wind into her work but if the breaks go her way, she wins.

10 Keshi Boom (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the only threat. 1400m is the slight query with her but she’s unbeaten in two career outings and her first up win at Northam was a beauty, rounding them up from near last for a big win. She can settle much closer in the run from the good draw and if the 1400m is okay, then she is clearly hard to beat.

3 Brave Strike (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous now she has drawn better. She has been dragged back both runs this time in given she has drawn wide and each time she has found the line strongly. If she can settle closer and still be effective late, a win wouldn’t totally shock with her IMO. Must for multiples.

3 Mocha Dream (Bet Now:  $SP.00) brings Geraldton form, but he’s in form and has run well at metro level before so he’ll do me in the get out. He was smashed in betting last time out and despite getting a mile out of his ground, he finished off with real purpose late in the piece to launch late and get the win. Has a gate to use to settle near the speed and I think off that big win, he can take this out.

11 Scorpion Ruler… (Bet Now:  $SP.00) beware the unbeaten horse. What a performance from him to win on debut at Northam, giving them a start and a beating when launching late to get the job done. Overall time was just fair, but his late splits were quite good. If he can use the inside gate to advantage, he’s certainly dangerous enough.

2 The Admiral (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. Jess Carbery trains this enigmatic galloper, who had shown talent when with Simon Miller but was quite inconsistent. Had one run for Carbery in the Autumn and was solid here before being spelled. May need the run but his best is good enough to be be more than competitive so watch the market.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 13 Processio

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 2 Dun With The Blues

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 3 Transcribe

Quaddie (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 8

Leg Two: 2

Leg Three: 1, 3, 9, 10

Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 8, 11

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful.

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