The final Group l of 2014 is the $500,000 Group l TABtouch Kingston Town Classic (1800m) and it highlights a bumper nine race card at Ascot this Saturday. After drawing gate three, the Chris Waller trained Moriarty is the clear favourite for the race at around the $4 with Douglas Whyte booked to ride. With a stack of other good races on the card, Perth will have the racing spotlight focused on it solely this Saturday.
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Race One (12:27pm) : Thunderbolt 1000 1000m: Form Guide
Back Me: All things being equal, Shining Knight (Best Odds: $2.50) should prove far too classy for this lot. He was a super win first up in the Colonel Reeves before getting back and running on powerfully late in the Winterbottom behind Magnifisio. Despite giving weight to his rivals here, he has lengths on them in class and that should be enough to get him home here.
Big Danger: Pinnici (Best Odds: $18.00) is having his first run since August when running fourth to classy local sprinter Smoko in the Belmont Newmarket. He took his form to another level last time in and eventually got to stakes grade, but just looked to have had enough at the end. Resumes without a trial, but is very good fresh and has drawn well.
Roughie: Nightingale Road (Best Odds: $34.00) stormed home to miss out narrowly over this track/distance on Melbourne Cup Day before going to the Jungle Mist Classic and again making late ground when seventh to Antique Belle. She is one who will be attacking the line late, and on the minimum, she could surprise at huge odds.
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Race Two (1:05pm) : Westspeed Plate 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going to give Ningbo (Best Odds: $4.40) another chance here. I was quite keen on this daughter of Star Witness on debut a fortnight back, and most agreed, sending her out an odds on pop, but she never ever travelled well in the run and was never a winning chance. Blinkers go on immediately and she gets a weight pull thanks to the claim for Chris Parnham. Her barrier trial prior to the debut was too brilliant to dismiss after one failure.
Big Danger: Castle Queen (Best Odds: $7.00) is on debut for Paul Jordan after a nice trial win recently at Belmont. Time wasn’t flash compared to the trial time Ningbo clocked, but Castle Queen does get the barrier draw advantage now and in both trials jumped cleanly, so I expect this daughter of Oratorio to be handy and hopefully out of trouble.
Roughie: Of the ones to have raced outside of Ningbo, the best of them is clearly Invincible Man (Best Odds: $9.00). He was enormous on debut during the midweeks over 1000m here, sitting three wide with no cover on the speed yet still attacked the line and wanted victory, and ended up getting it. Draws outside Castle Queen, so I suspect they’ll get the drag over and then push forward, because he has proven now that he can handle a decent workload and find at the end.
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Race Three (1:45pm) : Aquanita Stakes 1800m: Form Guide
Back Me: Putting Palace Intruder (Best Odds: $17.00) on top. He has had two runs during the Carnival. First up he ran a closing sixth to star youngster Disposition in the Belgravia before getting too far back in the Guineas when ninth to Rommel. It’s interesting to see the booking of Tommy Berry, because on paper there doesn’t seem to be much speed here, and during his 2YO season, Palace Intruder could race handy, so I am hoping they do go forward on this horse, because it does look to be a pretty even race and he does have the class factor.
Big Danger: Orright (Best Odds: $9.00) is the one on the up in this race. He has had two starts for Dan Morton, an eye catching fifth in a Northam maiden before powering home at the midweeks last week over 1500m and getting victory. Douglas Whyte has been booked for the ride, so Orright immediately gets an advantage there, and he will be strong at the end of 1800m.
Roughie: Fo’ Shizzle (Best Odds: $12.00) has dodged the classy three year old races and has instead been kept to the provincials to tackle the older horses, and with some success. Two back at Bunbury she just pulled too hard when fourth, beaten a length, before going to Narrogin last Sunday and blitzing an ordinary bunch, but as I said, she took on the older horses, which isn’t easy to do successfully in the first half of the season. Pike has been booked, and that’s a good lead.
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Race Four (2:25pm) : Sir Ernest Lee-Steere Classic 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going with Outlaw Pete (Best Odds: $4.00) here. He looked unlucky two back in the Fairetha when eighth to Disposition where he didn’t get a lot of room in the straight. He then went to the Guineas and was one of several to get too far back in the run, but he did work home strongly late. Back to 1400m now, back a touch in depth, drawn well, rock hard fit, the one to beat IMO.
Big Danger: Malibu Style (Best Odds: $7.50) strung together two wins to kick off this prep before being run off his legs over 1000m at his next outing. He then came to the Placid Ark Stakes (1200m) and got a long way back again before making up a stack of ground late to only miss catching Liberty’s Gem by a short neck. Up to 1400m suits and is drawn better, so he is a definite threat.
Roughie: Mississippian (Best Odds: $14.00) powered home to break his maiden status at Bunbury two back before stepping straight up to stakes grade in the Placid Ark where he was very good without much luck when fifth to Liberty’s Gem, beaten two lengths. There appears to be a stack of upside with this horse and he will be definitely one to be strong at the end of the race.
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Race Five (3:00pm) : Jungle Dawn Classic 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Real Charm (Best Odds: $2.65) has taken her time to find her best form this time in, but she produced it in bucket loads last time out with a stunning seven length romp over 1500m here last Saturday. She sat wide with no cover for the first half of the race before Paul Harvey took off 600m out, joined the leaders on the turn and just booted clear of her rivals to win with ridiculous ease. She did finish second in the 1000 Guineas last prep behind our Big Danger, so the class is there, and she is back to her best form.
Big Danger: My Sister Lil (Best Odds: $5.00) was first up since the Natasha Stakes in March when making up a stack of ground late in the Jungle Mist to run third to Antique Belle, beaten just over a length. She was a very impressive winner at her lone second up run before going on to compete strongly at stakes level. No reason why she can’t do it here from the beaut draw.
Roughie: A good speed here should really suit Fast Flowing (Best Odds: $21.00), who is coming off a top win over this track/distance last week, sitting near last in the run before peeling wide on the turn and rounding up her rivals to win by a space and running decent time. Big rise in class here, but as I said, a hot speed will play into her hands and her best form has been at 1400m.
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Race Six (3:35pm) : Ascend Sales Trophies A.J. Scahill Stakes 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Looks to be only two winning chances- the quinella from the Winterbottom, Magnifisio and Watermans Bay (Best Odds: $4.50). Going with the latter, because he clearly should have won the race, and arguably should have won it in the stewards room when Steve Arnold fired in the protest. Putting that to one side, Watermans Bay will be suited more so than the other horse with the step up to 1400m, plus there could be more upside with him.
Big Danger: Despite the interference she caused, Magnifisio (Best Odds: $2.35) was outstanding in winning the Winterbottom considering she was coming back from the 1400m of the Lee Steere Stakes and taking on a crack bunch of sprinters. I have doubts about her running 1400m at WFA, but she has drawn a soft gate and is in Group l winning form.
Roughie: The knockout horse at odds here is Amorino (Best Odds: $14.00). He probably just found the class of the Railway a tad too much, but he still ran well, finishing a 2.8L eighth to Elite Belle. Back to 1400m is a big tick, and while he might not be suited at WFA, he does get the services of Douglas Whyte.
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Race Seven (4:10pm) : Queen’s Cup 2200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going for some value in the veteran of Perth racing, God Has Spoken (Best Odds: $51.00). His best days might be past him, but he still remains a good zest for racing, and I liked the way he worked home in the Tatt’s Cup behind Global Flirt, beaten over three lengths. The key to this horse these days is ride him cold, and his last best run came in the Perth Cup when those tactics were used, and it took an Oliver gem on Black Tycoon to beat him. I can see real value in this horse and appears to be a great each-way bet.
Big Danger: Lucciola (Best Odds: $16.00) looks ready to show her best now after two runs back from a break. Needed the run first up in the Ascot Gold Cup before going to the Tatt’s Cup and running much better when fifth to Global Flirt, beaten a length. Third up now from the good draw should see her prove a tough nut to go past.
Roughie: The blinkers go on Strike The Stars (Best Odds: $21.00) for the first time in his 31 start career, and it could well be the last roll of the dice for this horse and his racing future, because he has been disappointing since being sent to Dan Morton, although he did work home okay in the Tatt’s Cup beside God Has Spoken, but that horse had his measure, so it’s hard to know how well he is going, but if he brought any of his Sydney form, he’d go close in this.
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Race Eight (4:45pm) : TABtouch Kingston Town Classic 1800m: Form Guide
Back Me: Best bet on the program comes in the big one and the clear horse to beat is Moriarty (Best Odds: $4.20). His run in the Railway was simply incredible given how far back he was in the run and the checks he copped coming to and on the home turn. For him to get as close as he did to Elite Belle was outstanding and just only needs to repeat that to win here. Good gate, Douglas Whyte riding and in the right stable. Ticks every box.
Big Danger: Bit surprised to see Elite Belle (Best Odds: $7.50) at around $7, because even though it was a freakish ride that got her home in the Railway, she did win the Group l and is the only horse in this race coming into it off the back of Group l winning form. She’s proven in the past she can carry this sort of weight at 1800m, win and run good time. In saying that, I doubt she has improvement compared to Moriarty, but I think the price on over is great odds.
Roughie: Smokin’ Joey (Best Odds: $16.00) was enormous in the Railway, sitting three wide with no cover on a speed set by The Cleaner. Smokin’ Joey had the tenacity to go up and hit the lead, but the hard run told late and he was picked off, eventually running fourth. Normal luck here and a cold ride, and here is a threat.
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Race Nine (5:22pm) : ‘TABtouch For Cash’ Handicap (72+) 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Illegal to call this the get out stakes, because this is an open lottery. Good luck if you get the winner here! I think there is some value down the bottom in World Trader (Best Odds: $9.00), who resumes since April. He has a pretty good record at the track and when produced fresh, plus he did run good time in a recent barrier trial win at Belmont. Drawn gate one and on the limit, so he looks a safe each-way bet.
Big Danger: Former Patinack mare Reflectance (Best Odds: $8.00) has had two runs in Perth for new trainer Mark Bairstow, pulling up with a slow recovery first up, then pulling up lame at her next outing, so she has had plenty of excuses since coming West. Provided everything is good with her, she should prove hard to beat here from the good draw with Tommy Berry in the saddle.
Roughie: Dark Delight (Best Odds: $14.00) looked in need of the run when resuming, then raced three weeks back and had absolutely no luck behind stablemate Real Love when getting absolutely flattened before the turn and losing all momentum and all winning hope. She is much better than that and will be running on hard late thanks to a likely hot speed.
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BEST BET: Race Eight Number 2 Moriarty
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Shining Knight
VALUE: Race Seven Number 1 God Has Spoken
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 8
Leg Two: 1, 3, 7, 11, 12
Leg Three: 2
Leg Four: 2, 6, 10, 11, 14, 15
$50 Investment= 83.33% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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