A bumper twelve race card has been set down for Belmont on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race 1. (11:59) Furphy (Rs0ly) 1000m
2 Mocha Dream (Bet Now: $4.80) gets the nod. First starter for Adam Durrant that has had a couple of preps, so he’s had the grounding for a strong first up assault. Two trials this time in, the latest over 950m at Lark Hill when running second last week. Bred to swim, he’ll do me in the opener.
3 Work In Progress (Bet Now: $3.00) is working up to a win. Ran over this track/distance just under a month back where she sat back in the run and worked home strongly late when second to Bustler. She’s now found positive form and I think she can certainly go on with it. Key threat.
6 Fortune’s Luck (Bet Now: $26.00) creates interest. Stablemate of Mocha Dream that is also on debut, and has had a near identical prep to that horse. Two preps, two trials this time in, and actually ran third in the trial Mocha Dream ran second in. If you like Mocha Dream, you have to respect Fortune’s Luck.
Race 2. (12:34) Perth Racing Club M'ship (C1) 1600m
1 Etomorp (Bet Now: $2.15) looks the good thing on the program. Progressive animal for Steele Casey that comes to town off the back of a dominant win at Pinjarra last time, lapping up the mud and bolting in. This isn’t an overly strong Class 1 and with his upside/progression, as well as a liking for wet ground, he’s clearly the one to beat.
10 Inahappydaze (Bet Now: $7.50) will land on speed and prove hard to beat. She attempted to lead throughout at Northam last Thursday and she gave a solid kick but felt the pinch late when third to Zero Consequence. Handles wet ground and with her racing style, she’ll give a sight.
2 Marchamley (Bet Now: $13.00) is one for wider multiples. Fred Kersley trained four year old that led throughout to break the maiden tag at Northam last time, showing good ticker to fend them off and get the job done. I doubt he has the quality to beat these, but with his racing style, could pinch a first four spot.
Race 3. (13:09) Crown Perth Hcp (C3) 1300m
2 She’s A Sweet Deel (Bet Now: $4.50) is quite clearly on top. This mare resumed over this track/distance where she got back to near last in the run and worked home quite well late in the piece behind Miss Maranta. I’d love a rise in trip for her, but she thrives on wet ground and should be strong at the end.
1 Keep Attacking (Bet Now: $3.40) is hard to beat. Todd Harvey trained gelding that was a sharp winner over 1200m here last time, getting the suck run behind the speed and finished best to score. Wet ground should be fine for him and this doesn’t look an overly strong Class 3.
5 English Heritage (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Lindsey Smith trained mare that resumes. She hasn’t raced since December 23 at Pinjarra when on speed and fighting on really well in defeat when third to Jadavi. She races well on the fresh side and though she resumes without a trial, watch the market.
Race 4. (13:44) Free Entry To Belmont (Bm72+) 1600m
3 Brave Dream (Bet Now: $2.45) on top in a thin race. Ran over 1400m here last Wednesday where she had the suck run behind the speed and battled away really well in defeat when fourth to Flying Missile. I think the big tick for her is getting to the mile, where she excels, and has good upside compared to the rest.
6 Westriver Miracle (Bet Now: $4.20) is lightly raced but is putting together a good little record. Got into a lovely spot from Parnham last Thursday at Northam and the ride was repaid with a strong finale to overhaul them and win. Placed in one run on soft ground, and while this is a step up in grade, the depth isn’t great.
1 Bad Wolf (Bet Now: $21.00) likely needs another run but the small field helps his cause. He ran three weeks back here in an on pace dominated affair and was never a factor behind Savage One. Might want another run or two, but he does have the runs on the board to run well.
Race 5. (14:23) Amelia Park (Bm69+) 2200m
If the seven day back up doesn’t hurt her, then I am clearly in the corner of 7 The Velvet Queen (Bet Now: $1.95). She ran over the mile here last Saturday and worked home strongly from the back when second to the heavily backed Ginger Flyer, who is in a purple patch. These 2000m+ races, the same horses have been spinning around for a while. She’s the fresh blood and IMO is the winner if last week hasn’t busted her.
1 Reliable Star (Bet Now: $6.00) is also on the seven day back up. This Adam Durrant trained mare has been up a little while but is holding her form nicely. Ran last Saturday over 2100m here and worked to the line well enough when third to Black Fantasy. With the claim for Taj Tyson, she’s the main and I dare say only threat.
I couldn’t back 3 Sugar Cain (Bet Now: $21.00) to win, but for exotics, I could certainly include. This mare has only run well when W Pike steers, and the only ride in WA who rides similar to him is CJP, who is on her here. Her recent form has been plain, but she likes getting her toe in and her best is good enough to be dangerous.
Race 6. (15:03) Bernard Couch Memorial 3Yo 1200m
9 Jeanella (Bet Now: $4.40) is bred to swim and she has done little wrong in two career outings so with that in mind, I am in her corner. Ran over 1000m here last Wednesday and worked home strongly from near last behind speed demon and 1000m specialist Revitup. Extra 200m is ideal and if she’s within range 400m out, I think she’ll round them up.
8 Mia Gusto (Bet Now: $2.80) has the 1200m lead up run under the belt, which should hold her in good stead for a race like this. That 1200m lead up run was an impressive win last Wednesday here, where she hugged the fence and finished off best. I think the rail was hot that day, so was she flattered? Perhaps, but she’s talented and CJP sticks.
6 Uncle Gerard (Bet Now: $9.00) has good upside to come. Debuted behind Mia Gusto last Wednesday where he was raw and new to the caper, but I liked the way he stuck on and found the line when second to the Durrant filly. I doubt he turns the tables, but he runs well all the same.
Race 7. (15:43) Tabtouch Wspeed Platinum-Rs0ly 1000m
I’ll take a punt on 6 Born To Rule (Bet Now: $4.40), who resumes for Adam Durrant. This guy is first up, having not raced since March 16 at Ascot when producing an end of prep run when down the track behind Silkinize. Been given a good break and has trialled well leading in. Noted swimmer, goes well fresh, he’ll do me.
4 Storm Commander (Bet Now: $5.00) is a big tick back to 1000m. He ran over 1200m here last Saturday and loomed large to win, but six furlongs on testing ground just found him out. Back to 1000m I love for him and with hard fitness under the belt, he certainly appeals here.
10 Royal Gap (Bet Now: $34.00) is an Ashley Maley trained gelding that resumes. His last run was Feb 13 at Geraldton when leading and tiring late. Interesting he resumes without a trial and interesting he resumes in town, so I’d watch the market and see what it does with him.
Race 8. (16:19) Congrats Laqdar Ramoly (Bm66+) 1400m
It’s hard to get away from 1 Phanta (Bet Now: $2.35) for the Gangemi camp. 2/2 this time in, the latest win being over this track/distance three weeks ago when leading throughout and proving too good, just. Second and third horse have won since, so the form reads very well, and he has the right racing pattern.
2 I’m Pretty (Bet Now: $10.00) doesn’t have the best of racing styles. but she has an engine under the hood and has a fab record at Belmont and on wet ground. Got conditions to suit three weeks back here and knuckled down strongly late from the back to score. Gets CJP back aboard now and dangerous if she’s within range.
3 Brother Paddy (Bet Now: $61.00) can be an improver at odds. Four weeks between runs since resuming at this track/distance where he looked like he would need the run and that’s how it panned out when down the track behind Frigid. Likely needs this as well, but if he’s near his best, he can threaten.
Race 9. (17:00) Congrats Chris Parnham (Rs0ly) 1400m
4 Costa Del Santo (Bet Now: $4.60) is one of the better swimmers in the field that commands respect. He ran on heavy ground at Pinjarra last time out where he was last in the run and found the line nicely behind Oly’s Choice, who backed up a week later and won again, so the form reads well and gets a jockey upgrade.
2 Kohli (Bet Now: $5.00) is a very consistent animal that is rarely far away from the action. He ran over 1400m at Northam last time out and worked home with purpose from near last on the turn when second to Oly’s Choice. I think he’ll be okay on wet ground, he’s hard fit and knocking on the door to win.
11 The Thunderess (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Lindsey Smith trained mare that resumes. She hasn’t raced since April 2 at Ascot when plain behind Time Scale, which followed a dominant win. She seems to save her best for when she is fresh, and though she resumes without a public trial, watch the market.
Race 10. (17:40) Congrats Adam Durrant (Rs1mw) 1600m
1 Catalpa (Bet Now: $2.90) on top. Team Williams trained gelding that was an impressive winner over 1400m here last Wednesday, getting the beaut sit behind the speed and finished best in a driving go. I think the rise to 1600m is ideal and with the claim for Taj Dyson, he is the one to beat.
5 Mr Mt Walker (Bet Now: $7.00) tends to save his best for when he is able to get his toe in. He got those conditions last Wednesday here and worked to the line pretty well when third to Multinational. Hasn’t won in a tick over a year, but with conditions in his corner, he appeals.
2 Axel ‘R’ Eight (Bet Now: $8.50) is one to watch from a market/yard perspective. He resumes for Ashley Maley, having not raced since October 23 when leading over 2150m and tiring late behind Ripon Falls. Better suited over furhter, but has trialled well leading in and first up at the mile tells me he’s forward enough for a positive run fresh.
Race 11. (18:15) Jockey Celebration Day (Bm84+) 1400m
8 Ginger Flyer (Bet Now: $3.70) looks the winner. He’s flying for Simon Miller, backing up after a dominant win over the mile here last Saturday, where the bets were landed and he was impressive from near the speed. Back to 1400m no issue, he’s hard fit and now in form, he’ll do me.
If you knew 6 Nowhiteflag (Bet Now: $5.00) was going to jump clean and lead, you’d bet with confidence. Because that is the only way he wins, when he leads, controls and is racing near the fence. He got that set up last Saturday and bolted up. Harder here, but can measure up for sure.
3 The Spruiker (Bet Now: $5.00) has a fab record at Belmont and generally performs well third up. He ran last time out in the Bolton Sprint and failed to fire in a pretty plain effort behind Resortman. Back a fair bit in grade/depth, if he brings his best, he can certainly take this out.
Race 12. (18:50) Crown Towers (Rs1mw) 1300m
7 Gold Merits (Bet Now: $7.50) has good upside to come and seems to be working up to a win. Just under a month between runs since racing over 1300m here when back off the speed and chased strongly, just missing out on a placing when a close up fourth. Ideally I’d like her at 1400m, but 1300m on heavy ground should feel like 1400m.
4 Hibiscus Lady (Bet Now: $5.50) hasn’t won in a long time but gee she’s racing well. Ran over 1200m here last time out where she looked the winner when the button was pushed after sitting wide no cover, but the hard run just told late when nabbed by Let’s Galahvant. Likes wet ground, hard fit, racing well…just needs to put a win on the board.
8 Abloh (Bet Now: $7.00) deserves another look. Adam Durrant trained gelding that resumed on very testing ground at Pinjarra and was wide no cover for the trip, so he was a total forgive IMO. That was at 1500m, so back to 1300m I find interesting, but he’s talented and in the right camp to bounce back.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Five Number 7 The Velvet Queen
NEXT BEST: Race Eleven Number 8 Ginger Flyer
LONG SHOT: Race Twelve Number 7 Gold Merits
Quaddie Tips (Races Nine Through To Twelve):
Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 11
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 5
Leg Three: 8
Leg Four: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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