The Belmont Winter Carnival continues this Saturday where it is Belmont Oaks Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (14:38) Go Racing For Free Before The Footy Plate 1200m
In the corner of 8 Cryptic Wonder (Bet Now: $2.25), on debut for the Williams camp with Pike to take the ride. He trialled last Monday at Lark Hill and he was one of the standout performances of the morning, sitting on speed and when shaken up by Pike, though green, gee he put them away like a good horse. If he handles the wet track, I think he’ll be too good.
Fascinating runner is 9 Rapid Eye Movement (Bet Now: $4.80), a filly that resumes. She hasn’t raced since debuting in the Crystal Slipper where she ran a very good third to Jericho Missile, who was at the time one of the better two year olds in WA, so that form reads well. Just hesitant to put her on top because the trial at Lark Hill was just fair, suspecting she’ll take improvement with the run under the belt.
6 Away We Go (Bet Now: $71.00) could be an improver here at odds. Hasn’t really set the world on fire in two career runs but at the same time, he hasn’t had much gone his way in each outing, the latest being on May 29. Has had a few weeks off after that outing and the tick over trial at Lark Hill looked more than encouraging to the eye, so an improved showing wouldn’t shock at all.
Race 2. (15:18) Barry Cooper Birthday Handicap (76+) 1000m
5 Battle Storm (Bet Now: $1.14) to make it 5/5. Exciting prospect for Adam Durrant who raced over this track/distance a fortnight back when getting three/four wide cover throughout and loved the way he went through his gears under hands and heels from Pike, proving far too good for his rivals. Hasn’t really been fully extended yet this prep, which bodes well and see no reason why he can’t continue his winning ways.
6 Beat The Devil (Bet Now: $3.90) is a son of Oratorio for Simon Miller resuming. This gelding hasn’t raced since Feb 9 at Pinjarra (Metro) when running a game second to Alpha Sky, pulling up lame and bleeding from a nostril. Been given the good break and liked what I saw in a recent Lark Hill trial win. He’s talented, not sure he beats this lot, but runs well all the same.
2 Saracino (Bet Now: $10.00) is a shadow of his former self. Former Group winner from NZ and Melbourne has done bugger all since coming to WA, but outside Battle Storm, this is the easiest race he has contested and is well and truly proven on wet ground, which will help his cause. If he can’t beat a runner home here, then his future might well be elsewhere I dare say.
Race 3. (15:58) Tabtouch Better Your Bet Handicap (64+) 1000m
The little freshen up should suit 7 Black Sabbath (Bet Now: $4.00), who has taken on the older horses at his past two with mixed results. Two back he ran a game second to Military Ruler before racing here a few weeks ago on the bog track and he really struggled behind Multiverse. Not sure how much upside is left with him but with fresh legs does leave him as a winning threat.
9 Double Jeopardy (Bet Now: $3.70) has been somewhat disappointing since arriving in WA from Melbourne when in the Ellerton/Zahra camp. The Pearce stable has him and for the most part, luck hasn’t gone his way in just about every run he’s contested in WA, but at the same time has been hard in the market most runs and let the punters down. Pike on, soft gate, last chance.
3 How To Fly (Bet Now: $21.00) for me. Adam Durrant trains this mare, that looked very sharp at the trials prior to resuming at this track/distance two weeks ago where she just got too far back and would have had to run sub 33 to win, which she just isn’t capable of. Hoping she can sit a bit closer in the run because I can’t sack her off one run because the trial leading in was too good.
Race 4. (16:33) Aquanita Stakes 2000m
1 True Attraction (Bet Now: $1.12) looks the winner. This horse was the form male heading into the Belmont Guineas two weeks ago but unfortunately drew the carpark and that sealed his fate as he had to get dragged back to near last. Did a great job to get as close as he did to beating stablemate Mystery Miss. He’ll eat up the 2000m IMO and barring bad luck, he should be winning.
3 Play Hard (Bet Now: $9.00) is a stablemate of the fav who steps up to 2000m for the first time after attempting to lead all the way over the mile here last time and he ran along at a decent clip, but just felt the pinch late when a narrow third to Friar Fox. Can he beat True Attraction? I doubt it, but likely sets the speed and does have recent and solid wet track form.
I think the step up to 2000m will suit 2 Pagan Image (Bet Now: $9.00). His best is good enough to run well but for the most part, he’s really struggled to find his best since around this time last year, the latest run seeing him down the track behind Friar Fox over the mile. Think 2000m will be up his alley and outside the fav, this is a very thin race, so an improved run is anticipated IMO.
Race 5. (17:10) Belmont Oaks 2000m
It’s hard seeing 1 Mystery Miss (Bet Now: $1.16) getting beat. This daughter of Animal Kingdom had the blinkers applied for the first time in the Belmont Guineas two weeks ago where she looked really well placed and despite a market drift, she was much too good for her rivals under a confident steer from Pike. Can only see her suited up to 2000m and now against her own age/sex, she looks the one.
4 Forgotten Star (Bet Now: $7.00) is a massive query at 2000m, but has the class to be around the mark. Thought Emma Stent gave the filly a 12/10 steer in the Belmont Guineas and was there to win 200m out but she couldn’t finish it off behind Mystery Miss and ran fourth. Off that run, couldn’t back her to win here, but she has class and will run well behind Mystery Miss.
5 One Point Lady (Bet Now: $16.00) is one filly who I have no doubts over re the trip. Steve Wolfe trains her and I thought she was an impressive winner over the mile here on June 19 when finishing hard from off the pace to get the job done. Lacks the class of a couple of these but it looks as if 2000m will be fine for her and I think with luck in running she can fill a place for sure.
Race 6. (17:45) Karl Bearman 80th Birthday Handicap (70+) 2200m
Looks a really good race for the Michael Lane trained 4 Beg To Differ (Bet Now: $9.50). He ran over 2000m here three weeks ago where he was back near last in the run and giving a horse like Come Play With Me was never going to work but he found the line strongly. Been given a tick over trial at Lark Hill on Monday to tune up, stepping to 2200m I like and the depth is weaker compared to last time.
11 Musical Art (Bet Now: $11.00) is a son of Excellent Art that is third up from a spell so he should just about be at peak fitness. Thought he was good first up at Northam over the mile before stepping up to 2100m here a fortnight ago and though held up for a stride or two in the straight, I thought he had his chance behind Defiantly. Third up, want to give him another chance.
1 At The Ready (Bet Now: $31.00) isn’t far off an improved run I don’t think. He comes through the Come Play With Me race from three weeks ago where he was back in the run and failed to come on, seemingly struggling on the bog track behind his in form stablemate. Should get firmer footing this time around and the depth isn’t as strong, so he gets his chance to find positive form.
Race 7. (18:20) Demerit @ Rangeview Stud Handicap (1MW) 1200m
3 Harry Thomas (Bet Now: $8.50) is a son of Scandal Keeper for Ross Price that resumes. This gelding hasn’t raced since April 20 at Ascot when running a game third to Settler’s Creek after getting slightly held up at times. Resumes without a trial, but can sprint well fresh, draws to get a sweet run in transit, likes Belmont and handles all conditions. Think he’s a safe way to go.
8 State Attorney (Bet Now: $2.80) is going pretty good this prep for Adam Durrant. 12/10 steer from Pike was a large factor to him winning here two back before racing in the Distant Trilogy race from a few weeks back where I thought he was ridden a tad too close to the speed and had nothing left for the finale, finishing midfield. He’s better with a sit, so if that eventuates, he can bounce back.
7 On The Turps (Bet Now: $18.00) is a David Harrison trained filly that had trialled up okay prior to resuming over over 1000m here a fortnight ago where he was back in the run and was never really a winning threat but did make minor headway late. He is much better suited at 1200m and if they go hard in front, that’ll suit his racing pattern and could add value to exotics.
Race 8. (18:55) Crown Perth Handicap (76+) 1300m
I’ll take a punt on 13 Miracle Man (Bet Now: $8.50), a talented gelding for Adam Durrant that resumes, having not raced since Feb 16 at Ascot when racing like a tired horse behind dominant winner Alpha Sky. His first up stats and record at Belmont reads quite well for this and his recent Lark Hill trial behind stablemate and Stakes winner Pinzu was good. Has class and a good fresh record.
1 Great Again (Bet Now: $3.10) has been good in two runs back from a spell for Lindsey Smith. Toughed it out really strongly to win first up at this track/distance before stepping up to 1400m two weeks ago where I thought young Pat Scorse gave the horse every chance but the horse just wasn’t good enough when second to War God. Third up and back to 1300m, he’s hard to beat.
8 Gunnago (Bet Now: $15.00) is a son of Trade Fair for Jason Pateman that resumes. This five year old is a proper Saturday class horse when he’s right and for the most part, he is, but there have been times throughout his career that he’s mixed his form. Normally needs a run before he shows his best, but he likes racing at Belmont and his recent trial looked quite good to the eye.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Four Number 1 True Attraction
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 5 Battle Storm
LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 13 Miracle Man
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 11
Leg Three: 3, 7, 8, 9
Leg Four: 1, 5, 6, 8, 13
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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