Flemington will play host to a strong nine race program on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:35) Jim Beam Hill Plate 1000m
The bread and butter for 1 Prezado (Bet Now: $2.20 TOP ODDS) is Flemington and down the straight over 1000m. Four of his five career wins have come at this track/distance, the latest coming three weeks ago when surging hard late to nab them near the peg. Bit of depth here, but he’s just so reliable at this set up and he’s in form.
3 From Within (Bet Now: $3.70 TOP ODDS) looks the only other winning threat. Danny O’Brien trained mare that went to the outside rail by herself in the Prezado race and tried hard, but couldn’t see it through when a close up fifth. Like that Olly is on and he does have good strike rate when combining with this stable. Definite improver with race fitness.
4 All Over Bosanova (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) is a mare who I’d give another chance to. Had jumped out quite impressively and was well backed at odds when resuming down the Flemington straight but didn’t really fire a shot and was most disappointing behind Prezado. She’s better than that, and I think is worth another look at likely decent odds.
Race 2. (12:10) Schweppes Bagotville Hcp 1100m
3 Pocket Goddess (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) is a well bred filly for the Hayes/Dabernig team that was kept very safe in betting when debuting in the VOBIS 2YO race during the Warrnambool Carnival when put into a lovely spot by Stackhouse and tried hard, but had no answers for the finale of Chrome Angel, a well performed filly. Had a tick over jumpout last week at Werribee and looked to move well. Draws the right part of the track and should get good cover.
1 Divine Caprice (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is a little query at 1100m but she’s got her share of talent for the Hayes/Dabernig team. Three weeks between runs since coming with a well timed run from off the speed to win over 1000m here at surprisingly decent odds. Little query at 1100m, but taking on her own age/sex certainly helps.
6 Pentangili (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) should be suited up to 1100m. Debuted for Team Hawkes over 1000m here three weeks ago where she was warming to the task late behind Divine Caprice in a pretty solid debut. This isn’t the strongest of races going around and with natural improvement for an astute team, she can win for sure.
Race 3. (12:45) Seppelt Grand Flaneur Hcp 2000m
5 Coolth (Bet Now: $2.70 TOP ODDS) looks a very much above average three year old for the McEvoy camp and potentially could be a horse to consider for the Mahogany Final during the Melbourne Winter because he has got 2000m+ written all over him. Loved the way he finished off to win on debut over the mile at Balaklava before going to the Murray Bridge mile, which I thought was a negative, staying at the 1600m, but gee he was impressive. Up in trip, really keen.
9 Persan (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) will eat up 2000m here for the Maher/Eustace team. Loved the way he toughed it out to win the maiden over the mile at Bendigo two back. Stayed at the mile at Ballarat last start and I think that didn’t suit him at all when a grinding second. He’s crying out for more ground, which he gets here, and he was far from disgraced over 2000m during the Spring in the Group l Spring Champion behind Shadow Hero.
8 Dargo (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) is a Cindy Alderson trained three year old that resumed just under a month back over the mile at Sale where he took a while to wind up, but got to near the best part of the track and surged hard, but just missed out on the win when a narrow second to Jungle Jane. Has since had a 1400m jumpout at Cranbourne and looked good. Also like the booking of M Rodd.
Race 4. (13:25) G.h Mumm Picnic (bm78) 1400m
13 Redcore (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) is worth a throw at the stumps here each way for Greg Eurell. Had seven weeks off after a poor run behind Too Good Too Hard and raced last Saturday at Caulfield when held up for a few strides, but liked the way he picked up late behind Ruban Bleu. He’s done very well on the seven day back up previously and drawing wide, should get three/four wide cover and launch late.
15 Simply Optimistic (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is going well for Brendon Hawtin and is teasing to win one. Just doing a bit wrong at the moment, whether it be wandering around under pressure or wanting to lay in. He’s certainly not helping his cause by doing those things so if he can put everything together, he’s certainly in the mix here.
7 Never Again (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) is on the seven day back up for Clinton McDonald after racing last Saturday at Caulfield where he was back in the run and didn’t really fire a shot behind Tavisan. But that was an open sprint and now he drops to his right level, 78 grade. If he can get luck from the draw, he’ll take some beating.
Race 5. (14:05) Furphy Celeb. Of Melb. (bm84) 1400m
Staying at 1400m is the query with 12 So You Swing (Bet Now: $4.60), but can’t ignore her resumption at Caulfield four weeks ago. It was one of the runs of the meeting, savaging the line from the back to run a close up fifth and clocked the best last 200m of the meeting. She looks on target for the Mares Series. Does she want a rise in trip now?
10 Queen La Diva (Bet Now: $9.50) is a daughter of Snippetson for the Lindsey Smith team who was an impressive winner at Bendigo last time out over the mile. Ridden aggressively by Froggy to find the front, ran along at a decent clip and despite that, she was strongest on the line and impressive in getting the job done. Back to 1400m a query, but that last start win had good merit.
9 Supre (Bet Now: $10.00) gets the Blinkers back on and is a big improver I feel. Comes back to 1400m after racing over 1800m two weeks ago when back in the run and tried to close off, but got held up late so should have finished a bit closer behind Savaheat. Back to Mares grade, can see her sitting back and finishing off hard.
Race 6. (14:45) Grinders Coffee Hcp 2520m
7 Sin To Win (Bet Now: $4.40) for me. Been up a while, a while between wins, but he’s racing well. Excellent in a slowly run Warrnambool Cup two back before going to the 2600m at Flemington two weeks ago where he just got a bit too far back and it was very difficult to make ground in that race won by Sasko. If he can sit closer in the run, he’ll take some beating.
8 Masaff (Bet Now: $2.90) is hard to beat with upside to come. Third up here for this import. He ran over 1800m here two weeks ago and worked to the line strongly, looming to win, but his condition just gave out late when third to Savaheat. He’s got upside to come, more than most, and the track won’t be as wet this time around.
10 Starcaster (Bet Now: $9.00) has to be given another look back on firmer footing. His last couple of outings have come on really testing wet ground and he hasn’t done a great deal, but prior to that scored an electric win on a dry deck at Geelong, so the talent is clearly there, and back on top of the ground, he can improve big time.
Race 7. (15:25) Henry Byron Moore (bm84) 1800m
I think Chris Waller will win the race. Just a matter of backing which one. I’ll be backing two, the first of which being 4 Nobu (Bet Now: $7.00), who I have been on at his past couple, and he has travelled into the race like the winner. Just hasn’t let down on the wet ground, so hopefully the deck will be firmer and if so, can back him with confidence.
8 No Say In It (Bet Now: $5.00) is a saver in this race. He’s flying this bloke and finds a perfect set up. Was one of the runs of the day last Saturday at Caulfield when back in a slowly run race but closed off strongly late to finish third and clocked some of the best late splits of the meeting. The Flemington 1800m looks perfect and stable is flying.
13 Desert Path (Bet Now: $41.00) is knocking on the door to win one. Just think he might need one more run and a step up in trip. He ran over this track/distance a fortnight back and was pretty good from near last behind Savaheat after getting a fair way back in the run. Convinced he’s going well and will likely be decent odds come jump time.
Race 8. (16:00) Vrc Heritage Hcp 1400m
12 Vassilator (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Colin Little trained four year old who is near a win I feel. He ran over this track/distance three weeks ago when ridden stone cold from the wide barrier and finished off with real purpose late when a close up fourth to Iconoclasm. The key to him might well be riding him cold, because his best recent runs have come when that has eventuated.
1 Iconoclasm (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Danny O’Brien trained galloper that should be hard to beat despite the weight impost. Olly worked his magic with him when winning at this track/distance three weeks ago, surging hard late to nab Achernar Star on the peg. 1400m at Flemington does look his go in life and even with 61.5kg, is a leading chance.
11 Sirius Suspect (Bet Now: $6.00) can win this, but hopefully doesn’t go as hard in front. He went a bit keen three weeks back at this track/distance when leading and gave a kick when Rawiller went for home, but last 100m, he just felt the pinch, eventually finishing fifth to Iconoclasm. If he can lead and control things better, he’ll take some beating.
Race 9. (16:30) Bagot's Cowshed Hcp 1400m
Convinced that 4 Alburq (Bet Now: $10.00) is going well and getting onto firmer footing is a big, big tick for him. He ran down the straight here two weeks ago where it was a bit of an ugly watch if you were on. Badly held up at a vital stage but not sure he would have beaten the impressive winner Roccabascerana. Up in trip and back on a dry deck, can improve big time.
7 Done By Me (Bet Now: $11.00) can win again. Just failed to see out the mile two back in the Adelaide Guineas behind Game Keeper before stepping back in grade and distance at Murray Bridge and her class came to the fore late with a strong win from just off the speed. I think this trip will be okay for her at this level, provided she gets an economical run.
Back on firmer footing and hard fit, giving 13 Merited (Bet Now: $19.00) one more chance. Had specking at odds when racing over the mile here three weeks ago, but I think on that ground, the mile saw her out and tired late behind Librate. Like her back to 1400m and is hard fit now. Showed good promise in her first prep, so giving her one more chance.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Three Number 5 Coolth
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Prezado
LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 13 Redcore
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 7, 8, 10
Leg Two: 4, 8, 10, 11, 13
Leg Three: 1, 10, 11, 12
Leg Four: 4, 7, 13, 17
$50 Investment = 20.83% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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