6/5/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot

Nine races will be run and won at Ascot this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.

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IMO, it’s a race in two. 9 Sass Machine (Bet Now:  $SP.00) does look the one though. Dion Luciani trained filly that is on debut off the back of two sharp trial wins, both for the stable after formerly being with Team Casey. Ran good time in winning the latest trial and drawn soft, she’ll likely land near the front and Pike sticking, there is enough to say she’ll take beating.

5 Bondi Plunge (Bet Now:  $SP.00) was scratched from a much weaker race on Wednesday in preference for this. She debuted over 1100m here two weeks ago and I thought if she runs straight, she wins the race instead of a close up third to Snow Prince. That said, the track was playing on speed so the run had merit and now with the claim for Campbell, she appeals big time.

1 Soaring Solo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one for wider multiples. She ran in the Snow Prince race mentioned above when wide no cover for the trip ad that run just told on her late, finishing down the track. Draws to get a much better run in transit and with her best, she is in with a shout and a win wouldn’t entirely shock with her.

2 Rear Admiral (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a very sharp filly for Team Casey and despite being first up, I think she can remain unbeaten and make it 4/4 to start her career. Her last run came on December 28 over 1200m here getting a beaut run in transit behind the speed and presented to win. Took a while to get there but she’s a winner and knew where the post was. Sharp trial win to get her ready and just think she has a bit on these.

4 Givemeonereason (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be suited back to 1000m. He ran over 1200m at Ascot at the midweeks last time when attempting to lead throughout and gave a solid kick but 1200m when leading just found him out when third to Pompey. He’s the hard fit horse so if they find the front, I think they’ll make this a proper 1000m contest rather than a barrier trial.

6 Outfield (Bet Now:  $SP.00) was scratched from a weaker race at Pinjarra on Thursday in preference for this race. She ran over 1100m here on Anzac Day and seemingly had every chance after getting the suck run near the speed when third to impressive winner After Party. Interesting she comes back to 1000m and rises in depth but Parnham steers and the small field should help her cause.

3 Harmika (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to be in for a good prep. This mare resumed two weeks back here where she had the suck run behind the speed and was never a threat but liked the way she found the line late when second to Land Of Valens. Has good upside to come and should she be able to settle closer in the run, she’s good enough to blouse these.

4 Honey Dew (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key threat. Jim Taylor trained mare that comes back to 1100m after racing over 1200m at Pinjarra back on March 26 when back off the speed and found the line with purpose to run a narrow third to Double Spice. Fast run 1100m looks ideal for this mare and she’ll be one that will be strong at the end.

6 To Rise Again (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is unknown at 1100m but he’s a horse in form and has to be respected in a relatively thin race. He is a 1000m specialist that is on the back up after racing last Wednesday at Pinjarra down the straight over 1000m and was good to the line from near the speed when second to My Baby Blue Jean. Has placed at 1100m previously so he’s definitely in as a leading contender.

1 My Fury (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top but overall, it’s pretty much a nothing race. She ran over the mile two weeks ago and seemingly had every chance but didn’t quite finish it off when fourth to Never Sober. She has won at the mile previously but I do think back to 1400m helps, she maps to get a soft run and Pike is back aboard, so she has a bit going for her.

6 Desert Vixen (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is unknown at 1400m but deserves another look. A fortnight between runs when racing over 1200m here when wide no cover for the trip and tiring late in the piece behind No Dice. Tricky draw once again, and the trip is a query, but ability wise, she is just about the best horse in the race. Dangerous if she gets the rub of the green.

10 Divine Quest (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a hard fit animal that has a good track/distance record. Good third here on Good Friday before going to the mile again three weeks back and was solid without being great behind Sessions Peak. Not the most reliable mare in terms of winning but is one I can entertain for wider multiples given she is hard fit.

3 Jadavi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) on top but not really a race I want to get involved in. This mare was a decent price when resuming over 1400m here two weeks ago where she had the suck run behind the speed before angling clear and finishing off strongly, just missing out on picking up Stellar Vista. Straight to 2100m I find interesting but tick over trial was good and Pike sticks.

2 Playing Marika (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a ripping mare that has come back in super order and is one of the hardest to beat IMO. Plain run two back behind Weaponson off a first up win but bounced back to winning form on Anzac Day when a dominant winner of the Diggers Cup. Unknown at the trip but is racing like it will be fine and has change up speed to be effective late.

6 Sluice Box (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a proven stayer in the field and will be strong late if it comes down to who is the best stayer in the field. He ran a few weeks back in the Geraldton Cup and was pretty good from off the speed when a close up third to Come Right Back. Yet to win in 14 runs at Ascot, so that is clearly a concern, but hard to knock the way he’s racing.

The lightweight is just making me lean the way of 8 Kosta’s Crown (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Not sure how he won two weeks ago but Parnham lifted him late and the horse savaged the line to score. Gets down to 52.5kg after the claim and I think with a positive ride, he’s certainly going well enough to take this out and make it two wins on the bounce.

5 Featherweight (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have returned in pretty good order. He ran over this track/distance a fortnight back and given the up/in pattern, the fact he made up significant ground from last behind Kosta’s Crown was an absolute beauty. Parnham on, can settle much closer in the run, he’s one of the main threats to Catalpa.

Fitter and up to 1200m are two big ticks for 1 Savage One (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He resumed over 1000m here three weeks back where he had the soft behind the lead before angling clear and finishing off strongly to run a narrow third to Snowdome. Good second up record and is much better suited at 1200m. Knockout hope with a soft gate once again.

9 Arcadia Star (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is bred to eat up 1800m and strikes a winnable race. Pike lifted her to win two back over the mile at Pinjarra before going to the mile here two weeks ago and the ride from Pike was a peach given he had to ride to the pattern and was good to the line when second to Never Sober. Like her up in trip and this race, as a whole, is on the thin side.

Staying at 1800m I hate for 1 He’s A Lucky Lad (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but he has returned in really good order. He resumed three weeks back at this track/distance where he got back to near last in the run but loved the way he found the line late in the piece behind National Guard, beaten two lengths but clocked good late splits for a horse resuming. Has that run under the belt and can settle much closer.

6 Honorific (Bet Now:  $SP.00) hasn’t really established himself as a city class horse but he is a good second up horse and the return was quite encouraging. He resumed over the mile at Geraldton and worked home with real purpose from near last on the turn to run fourth to Ihts Closing In. I highly doubt he wins but is one for wider exotics I’d suggest.

6 Fear The Wind (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has found winning form and can go on with it here. Team Pearce trained gelding that was backed with confidence when racing over this track/distance two weeks ago and under a peach steer from Pike, he sat off them and pounced early on in the straight to win comfortably, proving to be the best stayer. He can win again in a race that is on the thin side.

3 Ciscojoe (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very consistent animal for Bernie Miller that is finding it hard to win. Three weeks between runs since racing over 1800m here where was keen behind the speed and held up before eventually getting clear but he used too much petrol and was a beaten horse when third to Classic Rogue. If the 2200m trip is fine for him, he’ll be around the mark.

9 Flower In The Wind (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be suited back up in trip for Neville Parnham. Game in defeat two back at this track/distance before going to the Classic Rogue race mentioned above where she just found the drop back in trip a bridge too far so forgive and forget the run. Much better set up this time around and can run a much improved race.

Race in two IMO. The map horse though is 8 No Dice (Bet Now:  $SP.00) and she’s flying this prep so I am leaning her way. Ran over 1200m here two weeks ago where Pike lobbed her into a lovely spot behind the speed before being presented clear air and in a driving finish, she was too good for them. Draws to stalk No Change and from there, I think her change up speed will be the difference.

1 No Change (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is flying for Team Casey and has to be respected. He was an all the way winner over the mile here a fortnight back. He led throughout and the ticker he showed to fend them off was impressive. He was there to be beaten but he lifted under Louis to score. Back in trip no issue and should find the front comfortably. If he gets control, he’ll take running down.

Fitter and up to 1400m are two big ticks for 4 Rejuva King (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who resumed two weeks back over 1200m here where he was too bad to be true behind Kosta’s Crown, and the vet confirmed that post race, pulling up lame. He is a second up winner and gets a much better set up this time around distance wise. Just not sure the tempo will suit, but include in multiples.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 6 Fear The Wind

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Rear Admiral

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 9 Arcadia Star

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 8

Leg Two: 9

Leg Three: 6

Leg Four: 1, 8

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