The Carnival at Warrnambool winds up this Thursday with another strong ten race card, highlighted by both the Warrnambool Cup (2350m) and the Grand Annual Steeple (5500m). The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out four metres from the 1300m-300m; True for the remainder.
Race One (11:20) : Hammonds Champion Novice Hurdle 3200m:
Back Me: 2 Hucknall (Best Odds: $6.50) ran a solid race in a hurdle at Hamilton two back before racing at Flemington on Anzac Day where he was just outclassed. This looks his go and he should take some beating here based on the trials.
Big Danger: 3 Twin Tea Bags (Best Odds: $2.90) was completely luckless last time out at Ararat, getting badly held up in the straight when appearing to be bolting. His trials over the jumps have been encouraging and he is in the right stable.
Roughie: 1 Shiny Manners comes here off the back of a disappointing third at Gawler on Anzac Day behind Baklava Boy. He is a swimmer though and his form over the jumps prior was very good.
Race Two (11:55) : Thoroughbred Breeders Victoria Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 1 Perpetual Crisis (Best Odds: $3.90) ran on Terang Cup Day and looked in trouble early on in the straight, but he got clear and really attacked the line to win impressively. In the right stable and should prove tough to beat.
Big Danger: 8 Styleman (Best Odds: $7.50) ran at Sandown last time out and just faded late behind Highland Beat, who ran well at Caulfield on Saturday to frank the from. This looks his level and will be out of trouble on speed.
Roughie: 12 Milcah (Best Odds: $26.00) is on debut for Matty Williams. This daughter of Moshe hasn’t trialled publicly, so it is an unknown, but she is trained on the track and is bred to be handy.
Race Three (12:25) : Scania Australia Handicap (64) 1300m:
Back Me: 9 Montana (Best Odds: $4.60) has been given a 29 day freshen up since breaking his maiden status at Sandown in impressive fashion. Should get the gun run and Zahra sticks.
Big Danger: 13 Savage Coup (Best Odds: $11.00) is a former Robert Smerdon galloper that has had a couple of runs for Mitchell Freedman who ran last time out at Sandown and pulled up lame behind Loveitt, who ran well at Flemington on Anzac Day. Expect her to bounce back.
Roughie: 5 Miss Margarita (Best Odds: $7.00) ran at Murray Bridge last time out and chased hard but had to settle for a close up second. Draws a lovely gate here and the claim for Beau Mertens, so she’s a definite chance.
Race Four (13:00) : Ludeman Real Estate Handicap (64) 2000m:
Back Me: 6 Shiny Lass (Best Odds: $7.00) ran over 2000m at Ballarat last time out and stuck on pretty well in running fourth. Won’t mind some give in the track here and stable is just low flying at the Bool at the moment.
Big Danger: 9 Koka (Best Odds: $3.90) ran over 2000m a tick over three weeks back at Ballarat and ran a beauty to run a close up second. He is racing in super form at the moment, trained on the track and will be strong late.
Roughie: 5 Highlands County (Best Odds: $21.00) resumed on Terang Cup Day and finished off alright late in the piece over the mile. Bit surprised to see him at $34 because on his day he is a handy horse and he will be strong late.
Race Five (13:35) : Simons Waterfront Neville Wilson Final (70) 1700m:
Back Me: 3 Topography (Best Odds: $5.50) was a strong first up winner at Stawell before racing on Terang Cup Day where he made up ground late over 1400m. Third up now, so he should be ready fitness wise.
Big Danger: 7 Our Bottinno (Best Odds: $3.20) ran over the mile at Sandown and just looked to do a tad too much work on speed when finishing midfield behind Jennio. Back on the home track now and should be fitter.
Roughie: 6 Like The Clappers (Best Odds: $6.00) resumed in that same race Topography contested and his effort was pretty good. He should be much better off here, trained on the track and will eat up the distance.
Race Six (14:10) : The Standard Handicap (78) 1100m:
Back Me: 3 Raposo (Best Odds: $10.00) is a city class horse that resumes for Patrick Payne. This gelding had one towards the end of the Spring at Pakenham and was disappointing behind another city performer in Duke Of Brunswick. Resumes here off the back of a handy trial effort at Cranbourne and he does run well fresh.
Big Danger: 2 Boomwaa (Best Odds: $6.50) is the best horse in the race, but the lights aren’t on upstairs. He ran on Australia Day and finished down the track behind We’ve Got This in a race where they went too hard in front. Jump outs have been encouraging and Zahra booked is a good lead.
Roughie: 6 Alias (Best Odds: $18.00) had his first run for Daniel Bowman on Anzac Day at Flemington and finished down the track behind a potential star in Supido. That was a rock hard surface, and he is a horse who needs give in the ground, so he can be a sharp improver here at bolters odds.
Race Seven (14:45) : Wheelie Waste Grand Annual Steeple 5500m:
Back Me: 6 Valediction (Best Odds: $2.60) should bolt up here if he produces something similar to his stunning win in the Brierly on Tuesday where he just spanked his rivals. The Tulloch Lodge bone and muscle will come to the fore I feel and he looks the winner.
Big Danger: 1 Thubiaan, (Best Odds: $4.60) on face value, was disappointing in the Brierly, but remember he did something similar in the Von Doussa at Oakbank before bolting up in the Great Eastern, so he can definitely bounce back.
Roughie: 9 Mannertone (Best Odds: $34.00) ran down the track in the Great Eastern behind Thubiaan before going to a jumps race at Hamilton where he ran third, beaten a fair distance again. Class will test. But he runs well on the track and will have the fresh legs.
Race Eight (15:25) : Sungold Milk Warrnambool Cup 2350m:
Back Me: 8 Master Zephyr (Best Odds: $2.60) looks the one to beat here off the back of a brilliant win in the Terang Cup, aided by a gem from Yendall. He is a little suspect on a heavy track, but he has the Weir polish and Rawiller jumps aboard.
Big Danger: 14 Master Of Arts (Best Odds: $6.50) ran over 2000m at Morphettville a few weeks back and kept surging under hard riding to win the race narrowly but impressively. He has run well on soft ground before, Yendall rides and he gives the impression he will eat up a hard 2350m.
Roughie: 3 Survived (Best Odds: $16.00) ran over 2000m at Morphettville last time out and I think Craig Williams just got the tactics wrong with the horse given he doesn’t have a turn of foot and is better when he gets rolling from the 600m-700m. Has upside and the distance will be no issue.
Race Nine (16:05) : Schweppes Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: 3 Must Be Mink (Best Odds: $2.80) won two on the bounce in impressive fashion before racing over 1200m at Terang Cup Day and looked a little unlucky when running fourth given she didn’t get much room in the straight. Rawiller rides and she should get every chance from the good draw.
Big Danger: 8 Eehsa (Best Odds: $6.50) creates plenty of interest here. This former French mare makes her Australian debut for the Hayes/Dabernig yard, and she has performed well on heavy ground before. Definite watch horse and see if there is a push.
Roughie: 9 Solar Burst (Best Odds: $10.00) ran under the lights at Cranbourne last start and closed off alright late in the race behind Little Bita Spunk, who ran in a Stakes race last weekend, so the form doesn’t read too bad, and this mare can produce some brilliant sectionals late if she gets the speed on in front.
Race Ten (16:40) : Mercedes-Benz Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: 10 Artie’s Shore (Best Odds: $9.50) resumed on Terang Cup Day over this trip and had to lump 61kg with the 3kg apprentice and she rode the horse a treat but couldn’t quite reel in Shintaro. Tumbles 7kg and gets the senior rider aboard. $9…I think he should be favourite.
Big Danger: 7 Royal Rapture (Best Odds: $11.00) is having his first run for Darren Weir after formerly being with Peter Moody. He hasn’t raced since running a game fifth on the stand alone program at Bendigo in a pretty strong race. Rawiller rides…watch the market and see if there is a push.
Roughie: 5 Luckyi’mbarefoot (Best Odds: $11.00) resumed down the straight at Flemington on Anzac Day and finished down the track behind Supido. Will love getting back onto his home track with give in it, and he has a wonderful record when racing at this Carnival.
BEST BET: Race Ten Number 10 Artie's Shore
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 8 Master Zephyr
VALUE: Race Six Number 3 Raposo
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9, 12, 14
Leg Three: 1, 4, 6, 8, 9
Leg Four: 1, 2, 7, 8, 9, 10
$50 Investment= 2.48% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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