5/11/2015 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Crown Oaks day

It might be the weakest of the four days of Cup Week, but Oaks Day on Thursday at Flemington still shapes up to be quite an encouraging program, with of course the feature race being the $1 Million Crown Oaks (2500m). The weather forecast is for showers, the track is slow (6) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.

 

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Race One (12:05) : Red Rock Deli Plate (70) 1700m:

Back Me: Hipster Girl (Best Odds: $8.50) was brave in the Oaks this time last year. She didn’t really fire a shot in the Autumn, but she finally broke through for her maiden win when resuming at Mornington, and she was quite dominant there. She is certainly up to this level and is bred to get through the going without too much trouble.
Big Danger: Solar Burst (Best Odds: $13.00) stepped up to 2000m last time out on Pakenham Cup Day where she looked to travel well out the back but she just didn’t get the required luck when down the track behind Divan, who franked the form by running well in the Bendigo Cup last week. Back in trip and loves give in the track.
Roughie: Maxie’s Blue Girl (Best Odds: $21.00) was given a gun ride by Chris Parnham when proving too good for her rivals at maiden level at Cranbourne. Harder here, but plenty to like about her last start effort and has run well on wet ground in the past.

Quinella: I’ll settle on 1, 3, 10, 15
Trifecta: Boxed Trifecta numbers above

 

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Race Two (12:40) : Swisse Wellness Trophy (90) 1800m:

Back Me: Lucky Paddy (Best Odds: $7.00) was enormous when winning last time out in the Country Cup (1600m) at the Valley, sitting three wide no cover throughout yet surged to the lead on the turn and clung on. One thing with these Darren Weir runners is that they just keep running well when they are on a real wave of momentum.
Big Danger: Plot The Course (Best Odds: $8.50) was well backed last week at Bendigo and despite sitting three wide throughout, the gelding kept surging and got the stride in for a super win. Hardest test to date, but he loves give in the track, drops in weight and has placed in all three runs on wet tracks.
Roughie: Scherzoso (Best Odds: $14.00) could be an improver back racing anti-clockwise. His efforts in Sydney have been very good without winning. Forget he went around at Randwick given the pace was a crawl and that’s not his style. Rolling up around the bigger surroundings in the bigger field will suit him perfectly.

Quinella: 4, 5, 6, 9, 11, 13
Trifecta: Boxed Trifecta numbers above

 

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Race Three (13:20) : Off The Track Subzero Challenge (90) 1400m:

Back Me: Secret Toy Bizness (Best Odds: $5.00) should make it back-to-back wins in this race. He was very good in the final heat of this race at the Valley, working home strongly late to run third to Rock Forthe Ladies, who I am keen on later in the program. McDonald on, draws well…can’t see her getting beat.
Big Danger: Slate On Edge (Best Odds: $7.00) looks the only threat for mine. He could not have been ridden any better by Dwayne Dunn in that Valley race mentioned above, and kicked hard, but was bloused late by the Moody runner. Should ping over and lead again, and back to 1400m is perfect.
Roughie: Clemo (Best Odds: $5.50) is a talented horse who resumes here. He can run well fresh and a recent Cranbourne trial was excellent behind Thumbtacks, who franked the form by running well. Has won at Flemington also.

Quinella: Pretty confident the 1 and 2 will fill the
Quinella Trifecta: 1-2/1-2/3-6-9

 

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Race Four (14:00) : Gucci Stakes 1100m:

Back Me: Lake Geneva (Best Odds: $10.00) was wide throughout last time out in the Crockett yet surged to the lead on the turn and kept on strongly for a good win, and a much needed one after a couple of below par efforts in Sydney. Ryan Moore on and ridden cold, she’ll be charging late. Bit surprised to see her at $10.
Big Danger: Ottoman (Best Odds: $9.00) has been freshened up after running well without winning in a couple of legs of the Princess Series in Sydney. Looked very sharp in a Rosehill trial win and she has class, plus McDonald stays with her.
Roughie: Zara Bay (Best Odds: $7.00) really switched on with the blinkers going on last start at Warwick Farm, leading all the way and pretty much just bolting in. Always promised a fair bit, and this will be a good test to see how good she is.

Quinella: 1, 2, 4, 6, 19
Trifecta: Boxing up numbers above

 

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Race Five (14:40) : TCL Curved TV Stakes 1800m:

Back Me: Tavi Bay (Best Odds: $11.00) did plenty wrong in winning last week at Bendigo, but there was plenty to like about the win, and there was very strong market support. McDonald goes on and he is a very strong rider both hands, so that will aid this inexperienced youngster.
Big Danger: Ragnaar (Best Odds: $5.00) comes back in trip after running in the Geelong Classic where he was a well held fourth to Extra Choice in a race where the form didn’t hold up at all in the Derby. On potential, he is the best horse in the race. Just a little query on where his head space is at.
Roughie: Kryptonian (Best Odds: $9.00) is the value runner for sure here. Forget his first up run where he was back on a leaders track, then went to Geelong and had no luck at all behind impressive import Bajour. If the rain comes, his price of $19 will be halved, and I think he is a serious winning chance.

Quinella: 1, 2, 5, 9, 14
Trifecta: Boxed Trifecta numbers above

 

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Race Six (15:20) : Dilmah Earl Grey Stakes 1000m:

Back Me: I think there is real value here in the shape of Tudor (Best Odds: $12.00). Should have bolted in first up at Cranbourne before going to the Valley where he sat outside a hot tempo before taking the lead on the turn and fighting on, but was grabbed in the last couple of strides by Reldas. Drawn near the speedy General Jackson, should get on his back and have the last say.
Big Danger: The Quarterback (Best Odds: $7.50) is a short course specialist who has a booming finish on him. He worked home strongly last start behind Fast ‘N’ Rocking, who ran a beauty in the Manikato behind Chautauqua. Needs it relatively dry, but if he is close enough at the clock tower, he’ll go very close.
Roughie: Really surprised that Unanimously (Best Odds: $11.00) is $16 here. With luck he probably should have won last time out at the Valley behind Tawteen, getting badly held up over the final 75m when appearing to have good momentum. Handles all conditions and is drawn to be out of trouble.

Quinella: 3, 5, 6, 13
Trifecta: Boxed Trifecta numbers above

 

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Race Seven (16:00) : G.H. Mumm Stakes 1100m:

Back Me: Brook Road (Best Odds: $6.50) is flying at the moment for Kris Lees. Worked home very strongly first up behind Buffering in the Moir before getting no luck at all in the Alinghi behind Vezelay. I always get more confident when Hugh Bowman gets on a Kris Lees runner, and with normal luck, this mare will take a power of beating.
Big Danger: Hidden Pearl (Best Odds: $8.50) is a very nippy customer for Barry Lockwood who had the pull in the weights and got the job done first up at Doomben, beating home nutcase Architect, who was very plain in defeat on the weekend, so form is suspect, but the Pumper is on, and we know he loves to steer a leader home. This mare will look the winner. Last 100m will test.
Roughie: Dublin Lass (Best Odds: $9.00) is a very interesting runner. She has been nominated a couple of times, but Team Snowden elect to run her here. Her trial win last month was outstanding, she flies fresh and doesn’t mind some cut in the track.

Quinella: 2/9/10/14
Trifecta: Boxed Trifecta numbers above

 

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Race Eight (16:40) : Crown Oaks 2500m:

Back Me: I am keeping the faith with Pasadena Girl (Best Odds: $7.00). Her form reads much better than on face value. Was wide no cover in the Thousand Guinea before not handling the Moonee Valley track, but was taking away solid ground from Jameka late. The rain helps, she will lap up the 2500m, Bowman is a master of stayers and she is the lone Group l winner here. Can’t believe she was double figures.
Big Danger: Sacred Eye (Best Odds: $4.00) smashed up the boys in the Caulfield Classic (2000m), aided by a peach from Damien Lane. Outside Etymology, the form out of that race has been terrible, so that worries me big time with this girl, but the wraps the trainer and jockey Michael Walker have on this filly is huge. The booking of Ryan Moore is understandable, but it’s risky.
Roughie: Honesta (Best Odds: $11.00) looks the big overs. Forgive her for the Ethereal run because she was ridden far too close to the speed. More cold ride, like we saw in Sydney, and to a lesser extent Brisbane, and you’ll see a much better filly. She is the knockout hope.

Quinella: 1, 3, 4, 5
Trifecta: Boxed Trifecta numbers above

 

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Race Nine (17:20) : Crown Resorts Plate 1600m:

Back Me: Lord Athanaeum (Best Odds: $7.50) has really found a purple patch in recent times. He produced a brilliant finish to win two back at Ballarat, then did something identical when winning on Geelong Cup Day. He is a Group l performer from last year, so the class is there, and it’s hard to knock a horse who is in this kind of form.
Big Danger: Rock Forthe Ladies (Best Odds: $5.00) brought her NSW provincial form to the Valley in a heat of the Subzero Series when charging home late out wide to grab victory. Draws well with Boss remaining on and she is bred to handle the wet track.
Roughie: Koukram (Best Odds: $18.00) was very good when resuming in the Country Cup at the Valley when getting a long way back and working home well late behind impressive winner Lucky Paddy. Bigger track is perfect, he’s fitter, he is the class runner and is a second up winner.

Quinella: Looks a race in two between 7 and 8
Trifecta: 7-8/7-8/1-2-3/1-2-3

 

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Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 4, 5, 6, 12, 13

Leg Two: 1, 3, 9, 10, 14, 20

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.