Public Holiday racing this Monday in Sydney heads to Warwick Farm for a strong eight race program. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (13:00) : TAB More Than Just Winning Handicap 1300m:
Back Me: Lieder (Best Odds: $3.30) is just bursting to win a race, and I am pretty sure he gets his chance here. He worked to the line very strongly first up at Canterbury after getting held up a touch on the turn. Trained on the track, McDonald on…ticks the boxes.
Big Danger: I was thinking of So Willie (Best Odds: $4.50) as a potential J J Atkins horse, and he did run some very good races in two year old races in Sydney, most notably behind stablemate Press Statement, who of course won the J J Atkins. Recent trials have been encouraging and he is the class runner.
Roughie: The step up in trip could suit the Jarrod Austin trained Macquidez (Best Odds: $41.00), who has raced at the provincials in his two career outings where he has got back and run on late. Harder here, but a good draw, in form rider and is trained on the track.
Race Two: Adelaide New @ Coolmore Handicap 1300m:
Back Me: Mowgli (Best Odds: $15.00) is looks ready to win. She sat out the back last start at Newcastle and was forced the widest on the turn but she really let down strongly to just miss out on picking up Fast Candy. Touch harder here, but is trained on the track and should be at her peak fitness wise.
Big Danger: Ravi (Best Odds: $2.25) was enormous in defeat when she resumed here a couple of weeks back, storming home late to run a close up fourth. Should take good improvement from that run and looms as a definite winning threat.
Roughie: Trajectory (Best Odds: $67.00) is an interesting runner here. Debuted during the Winter at Canterbury and didn’t look comfortable on the wet track. Resumes here and the stable doesn’t send them to town for a holiday.
Race Three: Tab.com.au Handicap (72) 2200m:
Back Me: Looks a two horse race between Low Places (Best Odds: $3.60) and Cast In Stone. Leaning towards Low Places. He was strong in defeat here because he gave Cast In Stone the perfect drag into the straight and that was the race. Low Places draws better now and should get a much softer trip.
Big Danger: Cast In Stone (Best Odds: $3.20) was given a lovely ride from Bowman in that race mentioned above. He got on the back of Low Places and just followed that horses every move before peeling on the turn and pulling clear. Harder here, but there is upside and stable is flying.
Roughie: Nordic Duke (Best Odds: $8.00) ran a close third in that race Cast In Stone saluted in and he was pretty good late, and was later found to have had lacerations in a leg, so that added more merit to the effort. He is knocking on the door to win, and he could get his chance here with the right trip.
Race Four: More Than Ready @ Vinery Handicap (72) 1000m:
Back Me: Speed galore here, so I’ll go for some value here in the shape of Shivarchi (Best Odds: $19.00). He looked a little unlucky here last start when running seventh to the above average Mogador, getting held up a touch in the straight. He will be suited by the cracking tempo here and will be charging late.
Big Danger: To A Degree (Best Odds: $11.00) is the obvious horse to look out for. This Riverina sprinter has been very dominant around that area, and he resumed a couple of weeks back at Wagga where he led all the way and just bolted in. Hardest test to date here, but he looks above average and this is a suitable city debut.
Roughie: Mana (Best Odds: $6.50) is first up here for local trainer Craig Ritchie and he looks spot on for his return to racing after a couple of very sharp trials, one here and one where at Hawkesbury where he bolted up. McDonald on is a very good lead.
Race Five: Pro-Ride Flying 1000m:
Back Me: Zaratone (Best Odds: $7.00) bests these. His runs in the major races in Sydney have been fantastic, including efforts in the Missile and Warwick Stakes. Drops back to his ideal trip now, drops big time in class and he looks the leader. Extremely hard to hold out.
Big Danger: Diamond Oasis (Best Odds: $2.10) is a very good sprinter that resumes for Joe Pride. He last ran in the Bribie and went enormous when running seventh to Falino after he got caught four wide no cover for the entire trip. Recent trial win here was sharp and he flies fresh.
Roughie: Agent (Best Odds: $13.00) resumes here for Team Hawkes. He last ran in the June Stakes when finishing down the track behind Wouldn’t It Be Nice. He looked quite good in a recent trial win at Rosehill, he runs well fresh and is drawn to get a gun run near Zaratone.
Race Six: TAB Rewards Handiap (77) 1600m:
Back Me: Keen here on Courtza King (Best Odds: $2.10). This Team Snowden runner ran over 1300m here last start and worked home very strongly from near last to run a close up third to impressive on speed winner Kind Heart. Up in trip should suit him, and the fact he has been scratched from the 1400m race indicates to me that the stable are confident about him running the mile.
Big Danger: Springbok Flyer (Best Odds: $11.00) is the interesting runner engaged here. He resumed for Chris Waller after three runs during the Winter, where he ran a super race here first up before failing badly at his last two starts. Couple of trials to tune up for his return to racing, gate one and Bowman on board, which is a good lead.
Roughie: O’Reilly’s Revenge (Best Odds: $5.50) wasn’t far off Kind Heart when racing over 1300m here a couple of weeks back, finishing sixth, beaten two lengths. He does run well on this track and will love the step up to the mile.
Race Seven: Cellarbrations Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: With the better barrier, I am confident that Wild ‘N’ Famous (Best Odds: $3.50) stuck to the task quite gamely last start at Randwick when running third to impressive winner Kasiano Lad. Senior rider goes aboard now in Bowman, and given there is only one turn at the 1400m start, the wide barrier won’t be an excuse if he gets beat
Big Danger: Rock Mylady (Best Odds: $4.60) is a talented gelding that is a stablemate of the top tip. He raced twice during the Autumn, winning impressively over 1300m here before failing badly at Randwick as an odds on pop. Recent trials have been strong and does perform well fresh.
Roughie: Quick Strike (Best Odds: $10.00) resumes here after a Prep which ended with a close up eighth to Magicool in the Queensland Derby. He probably needs the run under the belt, but he has placed in all three previous first up outings, and has a touch of class on his side.
Race Eight: Hyland Race Colours Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: Normal luck and Nancy (Best Odds: $2.40) wins here. Should have bolted in first up at Canterbury then was given an ordinary ride last time out at Rosehill. Tommy back on, draws well and is a winner on the track. Should be winning.
Big Danger: All Cerise (Best Odds: $8.50) trialled really well prior to resuming here a couple of weeks back and she worked home alright late when a close up fourth to Hebden. Second up last time in she worked home well behind Stakes performer Medcaut, so the form around her is very good, and though drawn very wide and has topweight, she should be competitive.
Roughie: This track probably won’t be wet, but don’t leave out Song And Laughter (Best Odds: $14.00) from exotics. He wasn’t far off God’s In Him last start at Rosehill despite racing on a firm surface, and that horse came out and ran a beauty in the Shannon last Saturday. Draws well and gets the weight off after the claim for stable apprentice Koby Jennings.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 6 Nancy
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 1 Zaratone
VALUE: Race Eight Number 4 Song And Laughter
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3
Leg Two: 2, 6, 8, 9, 11
Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11, 13
Leg Four: 6
$50 Investment= 41.66% of the dividend if successful.
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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