5/1/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield

A strong nine race card has been assembled for Caulfield on Saturday. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Tricky race for the fillies. I think 7 Vogue Empress (Bet Now: $7.50) is a filly with upside and room to improve. She resumed in an 1100m maiden at Werribee where she settled off the speed before angling wide to get cover, peeling wider on the turn for clear and she let down strongly to get the job done. Time she ran was good relative to the day. Should get the speed in front to sit back and have last say.

1 Nomothaj (Bet Now: $4.60) is the class runner of the field but I’d be wary of backing Hayes/Dabernig runners in town because the recent trends have been they’re hard in the market but drift alarmingly the last 10-15 minutes and run like busteds. This girl hasn’t raced since the Magic Millions at Ballarat when a game fifth to Bel Sonic. She’s got class on her side. Just has to carry the weight.

3 Cosmic Ruby (Bet Now: $5.00) is a John Sadler trained filly who is in a real purple patch at the moment. Ran over 1000m at Werribee last time where she led all the way under Dean Holland and while the margin was narrow, the win was full of merit given she copped pressure in front. Was there to be beaten but she kicked hard and got the win. Harder here, but has the right racing pattern and Jack Martin is in really good form.

I think I’m getting my silly out of the system early for 2019 because I’m putting 7 Sunquest (Bet Now: $5.00) on top. On face value, it was classic Sunquest last start at the Valley. Looked home, turned it up, beat on the peg. But he was 1400-1200m that night and the soft7 isn’t his go. Much better on firmer footing, Melham takes over, good draw, back up in trip…he can win this.

11 Cincinnati Red (Bet Now: $2.35) is a Team Corstens trained mare who is in career best form at the moment. Ran over 1400m at Flemington last time where she got back with cover and worked to the line strongly when third to Fallen Empire. Not sure how strong that form is, but she draws well for Zahra and this race doesn’t appear to be overly strong.

She’s hit and miss but I think the $20+ about 13 Smurf Cody (Bet Now: $23.00) looks overs. Team Hawkes trained daughter of Animal Kingdom who spanked them to break the maiden tag two back at Kyneton before copping too much pressure in front here last time behind Blinder. Think she’ll be better with cover so if that eventuates, I think she can run a better race.

7 Kaplumpich (Bet Now: $3.00) is an intriguing runner. He ran over 1400m last time at Flemington and worked home well off a strong pace to run third to impressive winner Phoneme. Back to 1200m is the intriguing factor and does still hold a nomination for the 3YO Magic Millions, so perhaps a decent effort here could see him up at the Gold Coast next Saturday.

1 Moor Wanted (Bet Now: $7.00) is a son of Wanted for Peter Chow who is absolutely flying at the moment. Ran down the Flemington straight last time where he had a nice sit just off the speed and he tried hard. Looked beat a couple of times but found plenty when challenged and kicked hard to win in a race where the form has been pretty good out of it. Just as capable on a bending track.

3 Mount Horeb (Bet Now: $10.00) is a George Osborne trained gelding who deserves a crack in town. He’s been quite impressive in two runs this prep, winning first up at Kyneton before going to Albury where he was even more impressive. Linda Meech rides these Osborne runners really well. Not sure he can win, but the way he’s going, he has to be included.

Want to give 9 Crimson Tears (Bet Now: $3.40) another chance. Liked her last Saturday at the Valley and on face value, I thought she was a tad disappointing behind Oceanex, but looking at it again, I’m not sure she was happy around the Valley and the winner does look above average. No horse of that quality here I suspect, backs up straight away and should be suited on the bigger track.

10 Vitani (Bet Now: $5.50) has always had a little bit of a wrap on her since day one and while she hasn’t really leave up to the hype her overall record isn’t too bad. Ran over the mile at the Valley last time where she settled off the pace where Williams rode for luck and she got some of it but not enough when fourth to Extreme Bliss. First run at the mile and she ran well so hopefully should improve off that.

7 Miss Skeptical (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Matty Brown trained mare who seems to be in a real purple patch at the moment. This girl ran at the midweeks on December 19 in an easier race where she defied a betting drift and under a ripping ride from Chelsea MacFarlane, she proved too good. Her last few runs have been great and I think she can measure up here for sure.

There are a couple of runners I’m keen to see at this meeting and the main one is 1 Just Hifalutin (Bet Now: $6.50), who resumes. She is an absolute beauty who is first up but looks ready to go off the back of a December 24 jumpout at Cranbourne where she sat off the speed but under light riding, she showed superb change up speed. Hopefully class carries her home.

5 Miss Norway (Bet Now: $3.30) is a John Sadler trained mare who is 2/2 this time in. Got the win in the Stewards Room first up at Sandown before racing at the Valley last Saturday where she was given a lovely ride from Jack Martin and proved too good. Michael Poy jumps back on now, she’s hard fit, on her home track, from a soft draw, she’s hard to beat for sure.

6 Chatuchak (Bet Now: $10.00) shouldn’t be far away with her A game. Solid enough resumption at Ballarat behind Nariko before going to Flemington where she ran down the straight and wasn’t far off behind Smart Coupe. Third up, she should just about be ready to show her best. Just wish, for her backers, that the race was 1200m because a win isn’t far away I think.

I’m hoping that they go forward on 5 Wenner (Bet Now: $7.00) and look to lead throughout. He looks to have come back in really good order for Ken Keys, running solid races in each of his three runs. Latest run came over 1400m at Flemington when a closing third to the iron horse that is Chamois Road. Has run well at Caulfield in the past. Just want them to roll forward.

2 Amadeus (Bet Now: $4.60) is a Mick Kent trained gelding who was an impressive winner of the Gold Bullion two back at Pakenham before racing here on Boxing Day where I thought it was a somewhat negative ride from Williams. Gifted the lead to Liam Riordan on Rock ‘N’ Gold far too easy and that was the end of the section. Off last start, the 1600m should be fine.

4 Notio (Bet Now: $7.50) returned to Melbourne after a two run stint in Sydney on Boxing Day here which saw him close off alright from the back to run fifth to the above average Weir galloper Silentz. He’s a hard one to trust, but the same can be said for a majority of these. Not sure I could back him to win but he certainly goes in all multiples.

Really keen on 1 Civil Disobedience (Bet Now: $10.00) but he’s getting close to D-Day. Solid resumption at Pakenham behind Beauty Way before going to Morphettville where I thought Harry Coffey rode a really poor race on the four year old. Just hoped for a run and took too long to get going while the first two home had clear air and full momentum. Third up at 2000m, he certainly appeals.

8 Kilmacurragh (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Team Hawkes trained gelding who returns to Melbourne. First two runs for the prep have come in Sydney. Resumed at Rosehill and ran his race in the mounting yard behind Irithea before going to the Kensington track at Randwick where he ran much better when second to all the way winner Missybeel. He should just about be ready to show his best.

7 Calibration (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Darren Weir trained import for Australian Bloodstock who was a dominant winner two back at the Valley before racing at Pakenham on their Cup Day where he was nearer the inside, which wasn’t the spot to be when midfield behind stablemate Mr Quickie. I think Caulfield will suit him and I’m willing to give him another chance.

11 Mastering (Bet Now: $1.80) will do me. Mick Price trains this bloke, who resumed as a gelding on Kilmore Cup Day and bolted up before racing down the Flemington straight where he ran a beauty but no match late for the finale produced by Usain Bowler. Third up at 1400m on his home track, with the sweet draw, he looks one of the better bets on the program.

15 Trogir (Bet Now: $10.00) looks to be going well for Phillip Stokes but he can’t quite crack it for a win. Ran over this track/distance at the midweeks on December 19 where he was on speed and fought hard but had to settle for a narrow second to Critical Thinking. Drops to 53.5kg after the claim, should land on speed…probably can’t beat Mastering but should run second or third.

10 Harbour Grey (Bet Now: $27.00) is on the quick back for Stephen Brown after racing at Seymour on Sunday. He seemed to get a good run just off the pace and presented to win at the right time but just couldn’t quite finish it off behind Hunamosa. Senior jock on and gets some weight relief, which are the ticks for him. Yet to do the quick back up but must have pleased the stable to warrant doing it.

At first look I didn’t notice him, but looking at him closely, gee I think 9 Streets Of Avalon (Bet Now: $13.00) is a ripping e/w gamble in the get out. Shane Nicholls trains this bloke, who hasn’t raced since the Tatura Cup when finishing a close up fourth to See Me Fly. If you screw down his first up form, it doesn’t read too bad, and he went like a jet in a recent jump out. 1100m is short of his best, but just have to have something small each way.

7 Demolition (Bet Now: $2.50) is bursting to win a race, looks likely here…but could I charge into $3/thereabouts in a near capacity field? No. Ran down the straight at Flemington last time and closed off well when second to the in form Order Of Command. Better suited on a bending track and he was 1200-1000 last start so back up to 1100m off a good speed looks ideal.

10 Enigman (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Myboycharlie five year old for the Maher/Eustace stable that resumes. This bloke has built up a very good overall record and resumes on his home track. Hasn’t raced since September 13 when finishing a close up fourth at Mornington behind Moonlover. He normally sprints well fresh and his recent jumpout was more than encouraging.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Just Hifalutin

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 11 Mastering

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 1 Civil Disobedience

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 6

Leg Two: 1, 7, 8, 9

Leg Three: 11

Leg Four: 7, 9. 10, 11, 14

$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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