The Adelaide Racing Carnival continues to gather momentum this Saturday at Morphettville where it is Lord Reims Stakes Day, with the 2600m feature being an important lead up to the Adelaide Cup. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:53) : Schweppes Handicap 1050m:
Back Me: 2 Nasdex (Best Odds: $1.75) looks the way to go here. This Ciaron Maher trained three year old got a much needed confidence boost two back against the older horses at Terang before racing over this track/distance where he led all the way under Dom Tourneur and was quite dominant on the line. See no reason to jump off his back here.
Big Danger: 4 Nodoubtaboutit (Best Odds: $4.80) had market support when resuming behind Nasdex here a fortnight back where she had a nice sit just behind the tempo and she tried hard but she couldn’t reel in the hard fit Victorian. She has the upside factor in her favour and if they go a bit more genuine in front, this is the girl to be on.
Long Shot: 1 Morvada (Best Odds: $18.00) is a class stayer kicking off what could well be an SA Derby path. Ran some really good races in the Spring, including a second to Sacred Elixir before failing in the Derby behind Prized Icon. No trials, not the greatest of first up records, and suited over further, but he has class on his side.
Race Two (13:28) : Quayclean Handicap (70) 1600m:
Back Me: 1 Silvera (Best Odds: $2.20) wouldn’t have looked out of place in the Australian Guineas, so the fact he takes on this lot, he really should be putting them away. Resumed in the CS Hayes and got a long way back in the run but finished off his race with real purpose behind Hey Doc. That surely will be enough to get him home here.
Big Danger: 3 Fast Plan (Best Odds: $7.00) sat off a slow tempo in a Sandown maiden last time out and really didn’t have much right to finish close, but he did and really surged late to get up in the last couple of strides. Very promising Weir runner who looks the lone key threat to Silvera. I think they have a margin on the rest.
Long Shot: 4 Vienna Miss (Best Odds: $13.00) could be the horse to include in multiples. They had been riding her aggressively early on this prep, but they rode her with cover a month back on the Parks track and she ran better behind the in form Chapel City. Break between runs is the query. The positive is that she is up to the mile.
Race Three (14:03) : Holdfast Insurance Handicap (70) 1100m:
Back Me: 3 Sandrelli (Best Odds: $2.80) is a talented mare who looks the one here off the back of a stunning win here last time out where she looked in awful trouble in the straight but once she got clear air, she savaged the line and got the win. Only has to repeat that turn of foot to go close here. Clearly on top.
Big Danger: 7 Gogo Grace (Best Odds: $3.80) is the very interesting runner here. Talented filly that resumes for the Macdonald/Gluyas yard after a pretty solid Spring, where she finished just behind Benz over 1200m here before not quite measuring in two runs in Melbourne during the Carnival. No trials, but she has the class/quality to go close here.
Long Shot: 6 Really Edgy (Best Odds: $15.00) comes through that Sandrelli race a fortnight back where I thought she was really good in defeat. Had three wide cover throughout and when she presented she looked a strong winning chance but she just lacked the killer punch. Smaller field will aid her cause and there looks good speed engaged here.
Race Four (14:38) : Adelaide Galvanising Handicap (70) 1200m:
Back Me: 1 Counter Pulse (Best Odds: $4.20) was well backed late when resuming over 1100m here a fortnight back where he sat on speed and for the most part, he looked the winner, but he was bloused right on the peg by Sandrelli. Horror second up record, but I am prepared to take the gamble because the fresh effort was too encouraging to ignore.
Big Danger: 3 Roselli Sting (Best Odds: $4.60) has had both starts this prep at this track/distance where he won first up before running a game fourth to Go The Journey three weeks back. That horse franked the form last week by beating all bar recent MV winner This Kid Rocks. That form reads very well and being third up now, he should just about be ready fitness wise.
Long Shot: 4 Heartz Ablaze (Best Odds: $4.80) is a handy mare who has been solid in two runs back from a break. She ran against the fellow mares over this track/distance three weeks back where she was off the pace and tried hard when a narrow third to Alaskan jade. Good record here and the tempo should give her every chance to win.
Race Five (15:18) : Hughes Chauffeured Limousines Handicap (90) 1600m:
Back Me: I think there is value here in the shape of 1 Dances On Stars (Best Odds: $10.00). He had his first run for Grant Young last Saturday over 1550m on the Parks track where he had a charmed sit off a decent clip and to his credit, he gave a really good kick when clear but was swamped the final 50m. That run should do him the world of good and I think he is a great each way bet here.
Big Danger: 6 Chestnut Charlie (Best Odds: $9.00) comes back to the mile after contesting the Birthday Cup (2020m) last time out where he did a power of work out wide on speed and really had every right to drop out and run last, but he stuck on really well behind Mail It In. He has had three runs at 2000m, so back to the mile will see him hard fit, and I have no doubt he will make this a genuine mile if he rolls to the front.
Long Shot: 3 Flow Meter (Best Odds: $13.00) also comes back here through the Birthday Cup where he was completely unwanted in betting but despite that, he closed off well from off the pace to run third to Mail It In, beaten four lengths. Really good record at the track/distance and he will be strong late.
Race Six (15:58) : UBET Adelaide Cup March 13 Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: 5 Boggoms (Best Odds: $2.15) looks the clear horse to beat here. He was several weeks between runs when racing on the Parks track last Saturday where he was backed as if unbeatable and he didn’t let the punters down with a strong and determined victory. He has won on the seven day turnaround previously and is the one here for me.
Big Danger: 2 Olivier (Best Odds: $4.20) was a sharp winner over 1000m on the Parks track two back before racing over 1200m here where he seemingly had every chance but he couldn’t reel in Heart Of A Lion. I think that run proved that 1200m sees him out, so back to 1100m is perfect and is the key threat.
Long Shot: 3 Scratchy Lass (Best Odds: $15.00) ran fifth to Heart Of A Lion in that race mentioned above where she was back in a race void of any real pace set by the eventual winner Heart Of A Lion, but despite that, she didn’t exactly ping like we know she can. Getting close to D-Day for her, but on the plus side, like Olivier, back to 1100m is a big tick.
Race Seven (16:38) : UBET Cinderella Stakes 1050m:
Back Me: 5 Pageantry (Best Odds: $6.50) is a smart filly for Team Freedman who dodged the Blue Diamond and tackles the softer option here. Scored a brilliant debut win at Seymour before running in the Chairmans where she didn’t quite measure up behind Formality but was far from disgraced. That surely has to be the right form for this.
Big Danger: 1 Time Awaits (Best Odds: $4.00) is a smart filly for Tony McEvoy who ran second in the Chairmans behind Formality before racing down the Flemington straight in the Talindert where she got off the pace and got checked, but picked up and was good late. Back home now, hard fit and has the class factor.
Long Shot: 8 Glam Guru (Best Odds: $9.00) is a handy looking type on debut for the Macdonald/Gluyas yard. Well bred who will be better over further but she looked okay in a recent trial on the Parks track. Stable had a few nominated for this event, but they go with the first starter. Will be interesting to see how she measures up.
Race Eight (17:18) : James Boags Premium Lord Reims Stakes 2600m:
Back Me: 2 Mail It In (Best Odds: $4.40) is just an absolute ripper for the Macdonald/Gluyas team. Been up longer than Ron Jeremy but continues to perform very well and is stepping up to the plate with success. He ran in the Birthday Cup over 2000m here last time out where Lindop gave him an absolute peach just off the pace and once she peeled, it was game over. 2600m is a different pain barrier, but in terms of the locals, he is the leading contender.
Big Danger: 1 Master Of Arts (Best Odds: $2.90) has promised to win a race or two this time in, but he has let down punters down badly in recent times, the latest coming in the Torney Cup (2500m) at the Valley where he was hard in the market and though he was a little unlucky, for the most part, he was disappointing. He can bounce back here on the bigger track.
Long Shot: 14 Not So Lady Like (Best Odds: $31.00) is on the back up after racing last Saturday on the Parks track over 2250m where she was the well supported favourite but it was a case of Poon producing a rare howler. Had the mare in a pocket behind the speed and this is a horse that doesn’t have a turn of foot. She needs to wind into her work. Ended up running fourth to Tunes. She’ll eat up the 2600m here and is a live threat.
Race Nine (17:53) : MAC: Stop Drug Driving Handicap (70) 1800m:
Back Me: 13 Stone Warrior (Best Odds: $2.60) just picks himself here. He ran over the Pakenham mile last time out where he sat back in the ruck and closed off well late when second to Typhoon Monaco, who looks well above average. He gets his chance to get the win on the board now. Keen on him.
Big Danger: Despite the drop back in trip, 2 Royal Request (Best Odds: $13.00) is a key threat. He ran over 2000m here last time out where he had the charmed run just off the speed and when he pounced, he went right on with it and spanked them. I would have preferred him at 2000, but that aside, he looks a key threat.
Long Shot: 12 Cyclone Thomas (Best Odds: $12.00) is an absolute nightmare to follow, but he is knocking on the door to win a race. He ran over the mile here last time out where he got a mile back in the run and he finished off his race with real purpose to run third to Rising Hope. Up to 1800m suits and he rates highly here.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 5 Boggoms
NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 13 Stone Warrior
VALUE: Race Five Number 1 Dances On Stars
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 5
Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 8
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 14
Leg Four: 2, 11, 12, 13
$50 Investment= 8.92% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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