Brisbane racing returns to Eagle Farm this Saturday for a strong eight race program, highlighted by the Tatts Members Cup (1600m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (13:12) : Sapphire Recruitment Handicap (75) 2400m:
Back Me: 1 Morendi (Best Odds: $3.80) looks the safe way to go here. He has come of age this prep. Once upon a time he was a country galloper that struggled to break the maiden tag, but he has gone right on with it this time in and is a multiple city winner. His latest start came over 2200m here a fortnight back where he tried hard but couldn’t hold out Outraged. Extra 200m is the query, but given how well he is racing, he just has to be included.
Big Danger: 6 Three Points (Best Odds: $4.00) also comes through the Outraged race here a fortnight ago where he sat near the speed and gave a good kick when asked but was outpointed late by the two horses mentioned above. He too is suspect at the 2400m, but I think with a more patient steer, he will get it.
Long Shot: 3 Cailebotte (Best Odds: $9.00) also comes through the Outraged race and I thought his effort was very good in defeat. He was last in the run and had to come the widest on the turn yet he finished off with real purpose to run fourth.He is one horse who will relish the rise to 2400m and is the knockout hope.
Race Two (13:47) : Weddings @ Tatts Handicap (0MW) 1000m:
Back Me: 7 Manaya (Best Odds: $2.30) is the close relation to Hot Danish who resumed in the race won by Secret Mo at the Sunny Coast and it was somewhat of a confident/arrogant ride by Browne, who had the filly three and four wide throughout before giving her some rein and she cruised up to them at the top of the straight but she couldn’t finish off. You only have to see what she did on debut at Scone to see how good she is. Don’t drop off.
Big Danger: 1 Hi I’m Back (Best Odds: $2.80) has been really good in two runs back from a break for the Gollan camp. The last start came over 1200m here a fortnight back where he tried hard but he couldn’t quite reel in Good Job Bro, which is why I think back to 1000m here is perfect. Loves sting out of the ground and draws well.
Long Shot: 2 Ice Bucket (Best Odds: $9.00) is a hard fit NSW sprinter that makes the trip to Brisbane for Allan Kehoe. He ran on a bottomless Warwick farm surface a couple of Wednesdays back where he sat near the speed and fought on strongly when a close up third to the Stakes performed Frill Seeking. Firmer track will aid his cause and 1000m is ideal.
Race Three (14:22) : Winning Edge Presentations Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: 1 Houtzen (Best Odds: $1.30) just picks herself here on the assumption that key rivals race at Randwick. Star filly for Toby Edmonds who kicks off her Slipper prep here. Showed us how good she really is with her Magic Millions triumph, where she carved over from the wide gate, ran along at a brutal tempo yet dashed clear and clung on. Looked very good in work between races at Doomben last weekend, and she looks to give these a nice spanking.
Big Danger: 4 Acceptile (Best Odds: $13.00) has been in excellent form in two runs back from a break, both over 1000m here. Given a peach to win first up before racing here a fortnight back where he sat on speed and tried hard but was no match late for Snowshadow. Now that he has had the two runs under the belt, he should be cherry ripe and ready to go.
Long Shot: 12 Wicked Knickers (Best Odds: $34.00) is the interesting runner here. Bruce Hill trained filly that debuted on her home track over 900m where she was wide throughout and did plenty wrong but she fought on strongly to get the job done. I’m confident she can measure up here despite the rise in depth.
Race Four (15:02) : GH Mumm Plate (Class 3) 1600m:
Back Me: 8 Lieder (Best Odds: $9.50) has turned the corner since joining the Steve O’Dea. He has shown more consistency compared to when he was with Godolphin and he looks a leading contender off the back of his last start effort over 1500m here where Browne gave him an absolute peach and it deserved the win, but he was no match for the Group l performed Candika. That looks the right form for this race and he was 1200 to 1500 that day, so with the 1500 run under the belt, he’ll appreciate the mile.
Big Danger: 9 Naranja (Best Odds: $9.00) was very unlucky in the Country Cup on Magic Millions Day but he hasn’t quite gone on with it in two subsequent runs. First of those came over 1400m here when fifth to Hotel Coste before running down the track in that Candika race. I think he will like the extra 100m here, and with a likely genuine tempo, he’ll get his chance to run on.
Long Shot: 11 Eight Below (Best Odds: $15.00) rises significantly in depth but I thought there was alot of merit in her last start effort on her home track at the Gold Coast where she got a long way back in the run and closed off with real purpose. She has a much better record on wet ground than what it reads in the form guide, she’s down in the weights, she’ll be strong late and for mine represents really good value.
Race Five (15:42) : Stav, Abby & Matt With Osher’s Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 8 Fiery Heights (Best Odds: $2.50) is a horse who is building up a very good record for Toby Edmonds and has to be regarded highly in this event. He was confidently backed three weeks back at Doomben and aided by a lovely steer from Lloyd, he finished best in a close finish. Form held up well last week and though his record at Eagle Farm isn’t as dynamic as Doomben, I am happy to be in his corner.
Big Danger: 1 Flamboyer (Best Odds: $5.50) is a galloper who has mixed his form this time in, but I think he can go really close here. Went very close to winning the Sunny Coast Cup two back but was nabbed late by Sir Moments before tiring late behind Siegfried at Doomben. Maps well here and being third up off a break, he should be ready.
Long Shot: 11 Skylimit (Best Odds: $9.00) was a strong first up winner over this track/distance but in two subsequent runs, he hasn’t quite gone on with it. Ran in a Class 6 over this track/distance a fortnight back and was quite disappointing to my eye behind Good Job Bro. He is much better than that, and with the weight relief here, he can bounce back.
Race Six (16:22) : IPG Connect Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: 5 I’ve Gotta Nel (Best Odds: $6.50) looks one of the hardest to beat here off the back of some very sharp performances this time in. Led all the way last time out at the Sunny Coast under Lloyd and was in complete control. Won’t get it as easy here, but is in the right stable and should take some beating.
Big Danger: 9 Beaudacious (Best Odds: $11.00) is a talented filly that resumes for the Schweida camp. I was on her back a few times last prep where she was at decent odds and tried hard but just couldn’t quite get the job done. Been tuned up for her return with a couple of sharp trials and she does tend to race well fresh.
Long Shot: 14 Sister Patti (Best Odds: $31.00) had been performing okay in recent times but she needed a confidence boost so trainer Les Ross sent her to Toowoomba and she absolutely bolted in under Jackson Morris, winning by a space and running time. Has performed well in town before and I am giving her a chance here at odds.
Race Seven (17:02) : Sky Racing Tatts Members Cup 1600m:
Back Me: 10 Raffinato (Best Odds: $8.50) is a mare with upside and of course the Edmonds polish. She was unwanted in betting when running at this track/distance a fortnight back but despite the alarming market drift, she found plenty under the urgings of Jeff Lloyd to get the win. Is only third up here and rates highly to me despite the class rise.
Big Danger: 4 Beatniks (Best Odds: $4.00) was well backed late with punters when racing over this track/distance two weeks ago where she got back in the run and was seemingly going nowhere, but the breaks went her way and she just savaged the line to get the win. Now that she has that winning feeling again, she can go right on with it.
Long Shot: 5 Colour Charge (Best Odds: $7.50) ran fifth in the Beatniks race and on face value, he was a touch disappointing given he had the charmed run behind the tempo and seemingly had every chance. That track was a bit shifty that afternoon, so perhaps forgive him and go back to the start prior where he beat a similar field.
Race Eight (17:40) : Carlton Mid Handicap (Class 6) 1400m:
Back Me: 4 Bound For Love (Best Odds: $3.30) for me here in a really competitive Class 6. This mare resumed on February 8 over 1300m here where she was a slight drifter in the market but she looked in complete control of the race and rightfully got the job done, albeit narrowly but it was impressive. Handy second up record but most importantly, is unbeaten in three Eagle Farm attempts.
Big Danger: 1 Dee Nine Elle (Best Odds: $4.60) is four weeks between runs since racing over this track/distance where she was pretty much handed the lead on a platter, and for a mare that has been competitive in Saturday grade in Sydney, that was pretty much game over, and that was indeed the case. Probably won’t get it as easy here, but rates highly.
Long Shot: 3 Deconstructed (Best Odds: $9.00) has promised to be a Stakes horse throughout his career but hasn’t quite gone on with it, but it was good to see him return to racing a winner when he resumed over 1350m at Doomben a tick over four weeks back when sitting just off the pace and launching late. He has won second up before, and off that fresh effort, he has to be included.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 5 I’ve Gotta Nel
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 7 Manaya
VALUE: Race Seven Number 10 Raffinato
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 8, 11
Leg Two: 4, 5, 9, 10, 14
Leg Three: 4, 5, 6, 10
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4
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