An eight race card has been assembled for Ascot this Saturday with hopefully a few winners to be found. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (15:53) : The Association Of Great China Plate 1000m:
Back Me: 5 You Am I (Best Odds: $2.25) is a Hard Spun gelding that is on debut for the Michael Lane and he looks a well educate type that could measure up on debut. He has trialled twice leading in and has looked pretty good on each occasion. Keen to see what he does here.
Big Danger: 1 My Demi (Best Odds: $4.20) is a handy youngster that resumes here after two runs in the Spring where he looked okay on both occasions, the second behind the above average Keeper Keen. No trials so fitness levels are unknown but he looks to have a bit of quality about him.
Long Shot: 4 Kentoo (Best Odds: $4.80) is probably the next best here. He is another first starter, this one for Stephen Miller. Trialled earlier this week at Pinjarra and looked to trial well there to my eye, with You Am I just ahead of him, so I think the gap between them market wise shouldn’t be as big as what it is.
Race Two (16:33) : Lucky Rooster Maiden 1200m:
Back Me: Pretty keen here on 7 Miss Singapore (Best Odds: $6.50). She was having her first run for Lindsey Smith at this track/distance a fortnight back where she was wide most of the way but looked to be bolting and looked the winner 250m out but her condition just gave way. Should strip much fitter and is the clear horse to beat.
Big Danger: 4 Who’s The Guru (Best Odds: $2.35) is a gelding that resumes for the Durrant/Miller yard. Hasn’t set the world on fire in a couple of runs to date but he has been tuned up for his return to the track with a sharp trial win at Lark Hill over 950m in good time. Hard to beat.
Long Shot: 9 You Want Answers (Best Odds: $7.00) is a four year old mare with ability from the Sean Casey yard that is first up here. Hasn’t raced since July at Belmont where she got back in the run and made up ground late. No trials, so fitness levels are unknown but she looks a nice enough type. Watch the market.
Race Three (17:13) : Amelia Park Handicap (1MW) 1600m:
Back Me: 5 Royal Star (Best Odds: $1.35) could well be her namesake- A star. Two for two for Team Williams who comes here off the back of a two length over 1400m here on January 18 where Pike had her perched up near the speed and she justified the short quote with a comfortable win. Should make it three from three.
Big Danger: 2 Cloak And Dagger (Best Odds: $9.00) had been one of the better performed maidens racing in WA prior to last Wednesday over the Pinjarra mile where he sat near the pace and when asked for the big effort, he kicked right away and was dominant. He can go right on with it now.
Long Shot: 1 Veuve De Vega (Best Odds: $9.00) was completely unwanted in betting when racing over 1500m here two weeks back but he had the suck run behind them and when presented it looked all over big he couldn’t quite get past Wrinkly. Better suited at the mile and once he finds form, he generally holds it.
Race Four (17:50) : James Boags Premium Handicap (72+) 2200m:
Back Me: Pretty confident that 4 Preselection (Best Odds: $3.10) can get the job done here. Talented staying made that has had no luck at her past two, the latest over 2150m here three weeks back where she got bailed away behind the speed and just didn’t get clear at the right time behind Outlaw Pete. Confident she can get the job done here.
Big Danger: 2 Outlaw Pete (Best Odds: $4.20) won that race mentioned above and it was mainly down to the ride, giving the horse clear air and plenty of time to pick, which he did over the final furlong. Can he repeat the dose? Perhaps, but he can be hard to trust.
Long Shot: 3 Son Of Something (Best Odds: $16.00) is the big improver here. He ran over the mile here three weeks back where he got back to last in a slowly run affair and really had no hope the way the tempo was but he worked home well late behind Pinzu, who has franked the form. Up to this trip is a big tick and he has enormous upside.
Race Five (18:25) : Auto Classic BMW Trophy 1200m:
Back Me: 10 Salorsci (Best Odds: $2.60) looks an above average type that is the one to beat here and clearly IMHO. He debuted at Bunbury on January 19 and gee he really looked the part, sitting on speed most of the way and bolting up by four lengths. He just only has to repeat the dose here to knock these off.
Big Danger: 5 Precious Memories (Best Odds: $6.50) has been given a four week freshen up since racing over 1400m at Pinjarra where she got back in the run and produced a lovely finishing burst from the back to get the job done. No issue with the little break I think and she does have a touch of class on her side.
Long Shot: 8 Burning Magic (Best Odds: $34.00) is still a maiden after eight starts but I think that will change this time in. Resumes for the Parnham and ran some really good races last time in without winning. Trial win at Belmont was sharp to the eye and she only has to overcome the tricky gate to be a knockout hope here.
Race Six (19:05) : Australian Chinese Times Handicap (72+) 1100m:
Back Me: 8 Red Paddy (Best Odds: $6.00) ran over 1200m here three weeks back where he was unwanted in betting but despite the market drift, he surged from the off the pace and lunged but just missed out on picking up Bombs Away. Back to 1100m suits, not as much depth here, and he just needs luck from the sticky draw to be a major player here in a thin race.
Big Danger: 10 Cuanzo (Best Odds: $14.00) was three weeks between runs when racing over 1000m here a fortnight ago where he settled midfield in the run and closed off okay late in the piece but just lacked the killer dash wehn fourth to surprise winner Agachar Cruz. Should be better off here, draws well and the extra 100m suits.
Long Shot: 5 Chinetti (Best Odds: $17.00) also comes through the Agachar Cruz race where he attempted to lead all the way and ran along at a decent enough clip but just tired late when grabbed in the final few strides. Looks a risk at 1100m, but he won’t cop much pressure on speed here and will take some beating if he gets a cheap furlong.
Race Seven (19:42) : Get The Tabtouch Handicap (1MW) 1200m:
Back Me: Taking the chance on 5 Royal Supreme (Best Odds: $15.00). Handy middle distance type that resumes for Team Williams after a pretty solid Winter/Spring prep, which ended over 1800m here in October behind The Forgotten One. Recent Lark Hill trial was quiet, but he can sprint well fresh and there is good speed engaged here.
Big Danger: 2 Key To Fame (Best Odds: $6.00) should be forgiven for his failure here last Saturday given he was three/four wide no cover for the entire trip and rightfully dropped out to finish near last. His prior form was very good and if he has recovered well enough from that gutbsuter last weekend, he is right in this.
Long Shot: 11 Festive Success (Best Odds: $11.00) can be a hard horse to catch but when he is right, he is certainly capable of beating these. Ran four times last prep and ran okay without winning, but I was quite taken by his recent Belmont trial win where he bolted up by six lengths and ran time based on what others ran during the morning. Big watch for mine.
Race Eight (20:20) : Fifth Leg Handicap (66+) 1500m:
Back Me: 10 Point (Best Odds: $7.00) for me here in the get out. Very impressive winner at this track/distance before having a three week break and racing over 1400m here two weeks ago where he sat back in the run and couldn’t really come on via the leader and eventual winner Baraki Beats dominating proceedings. Draws to get a sweet trip here off a hot tempo and looks one of the better bets on the card.
Big Danger: 11 Prying Tom (Best Odds: $8.50) is such an interesting runner here. Winner of three from four who is first up here since October when scoring a very impressive win over the Bunbury mile. No trials leading in, so fitness levels are unknown, but he has a stack of scope and raw talent.
Long Shot: 1 Run Liam Run (Best Odds: $12.00) comes through the same race as Point where he too got a long way back in the run and couldn’t produce the required sectionals to get the job done. If he can sit a touch closer from the good draw, he does have the class and talent to knock this field off. Just where does he get to from the barrier is the issue.
BEST BET: Race Five Number 10 Salorsci
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 10 Point
VALUE: Race Seven Number 5 Royal Supreme
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 10
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 11
Leg Four: 1, 3, 6, 7, 10, 11
$50 Investment= 19.84% of the dividend if successful
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