The Brisbane Winter Carnival is officially over but the feature racing doesn’t stop with the Listed Bright Shadow (1200m) the drawcard on the nine event Eagle Farm meeting on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:43) Des Lambart Memorial Plate (c3) 1200m
Think this race sets up perfect for 1 Broken Arrows (Bet Now: $3.30). He’s been plagued by wet tracks this prep but still has been racing well without a great dea of luck, the latest run seeing him not get the clearest of paths behind the in form Witherspoon two weeks ago. Dry track, draws out, good speed in front, he can finish over the top.
Can see why 9 Garibaldi (Bet Now: $2.00) is well liked by most with the strong 3YO form next to his name and the fact the stable loves to use the formula of dropping a handy 3YO back to Class 3 grade eg Howwonderfullifeis. Latest run came in the Fred Best when far from disgraced behind Dawn Passage. He’s short enough though IMO for a horse who has won just the one race.
7 All Shiraz (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Rex Lipp trained mare that is racing in career best form at the moment. Closing second over 1200m at Toowoomba two back before going to the 1110m at Doomben two weeks ago where she didn’t have the brilliance of Howonderfullifeis but she closed off strongly. Bigger track, up to 1200m again, she’s likeable.
Race 2. (12:18) Tattersall's Arcade (78) 2212m
1 Humbolt Current (Bet Now: $4.20) isn’t the most reliable horse going around, but gee he finds a lovely race to break a run of outs. He’s been teasing to win one this prep but either finds a couple better on the day or his racing pattern works against him, the latest run though was solid enough behind a good one in Mount Popa. That form reads so well for a race like this.
6 Ocean Addict (Bet Now: $4.20) is a daughter of Ocean Park for the Edmonds camp that got out to a staying trip for the first time this prep at Doomben and the punters got on, backing her into $6.50 from double figures and under a lovely ride from Michael Cahill, she was too good. Got more to come and is a leading contender.
The best version of 3 Advance Warning (Bet Now: $8.50) is certainly capable but his last couple of runs have been really disappointing. Not sure what happened here two back behind Stardome, then last start at Doomben, don’t think he was 100% happy on the wet track. He’s better than his past couple, so he gets one more chance.
Race 3. (12:53) Winning Edge (bm85) 1200m
10 Plenty (Bet Now: $4.60) is flying for Stuart Kendrick. Put together three sharp wins, two of which coming at this track/distance. Last run came over 1300m here three weeks ago and if you were on, gee it was an ugly watch. Du Plessis made a split second decision and it ended up being the wrong. Should have fought the finish out I think. Back to this track/distance, he appeals.
6 Elixir (Bet Now: $4.20) is a Les Kelly trained gelding that is nearing a win. Was on him at this track/distance three weeks ago and when Huxtable booted clear on him, it looked race over, but he was nabbed on the peg by the very much in form Thy Kingdom Come. Fourth up now, so should be hard fit and prove a leading chance.
2 Connoisseur (Bet Now: $13.00) is flying at the moment for Chris Anderson, winning two on the bounce. Latest of those wins came at the Gold Coast where he led throughout and was impressive, beating Inquiry, who of course came out to win a Stakes race last Saturday, so that form reads very well and despite drawing wide, he has the early speed to come across.
Race 4. (13:28) Tattersall's Club Members (75) 1400m
He’s a quirky horse is 1 Star Of Michelin (Bet Now: $4.40) but no doubt IMO his best will see him beat these. On face value, he was disappointing at Doomben a few weeks ago but they just went too hard and he was run off his legs behind La Pulga. Getting to Eagle Farm looks a big, big tick for him, and I think he’ll finish over the top. But it’s last chance territory.
2 Amicita (Bet Now: $4.60) is a Tony Gollan trained mare that is just about racing in career best form, winning two of her past four. Last run came three weeks ago over 1300m at Eagle Farm and worked home strongly in an on pace dominated affair won by stablemate Solar Star. Think that form reads well for this, hard fit and in form.
Suspect that 5 Voila (Bet Now: $8.00) will be popular because the state switch when it comes to Chris Waller runners should always be respected. This mare has been going just fair in three Sydney runs this time in, but they have been on wet tracks and IMO, she’s much better on firmer footing, which she gets here. Big improver and a definite winning chance.
Race 5. (14:03) Tattersall's Club Stakes 1400m
Back to 1400m is the query with 8 See Marie (Bet Now: $7.00) but have to butter up with her. Was on her in The Phoenix two weeks ago at Doomben and I thought it wasn’t the best of rides from Taylor Marshall. Just got into a nasty spot and made a couple of poor decisions on the turn. She was very good late when clear, finishing fourth. Hopefully can get clear air, get to the outside and finish over the top.
11 Zero To Hundred (Bet Now: $5.50) is a daughter of So You Think for Gerald Ryan and we know the stable has a high quality So You Think juvenile in Peltzer. Whether this filly can reach those heights remains to be seen, but there was plenty to like about her debut win at Warwick Farm in the way she toughed it out and drew clear late. Like her up to 1400m and finds a very winnable Stakes race.
1 Tumbler Ridge (Bet Now: $6.00) should be suited up to 1400m for Steve O’Dea. Ran in the Dalrello over 1200m three weeks back where he was nearer the inside and held up for a few strides, but overall, he had his chance when fourth to Smart ‘N’ Sexy. He’s much better over 1400m, albeit when beating inferior opposition, but he’s got upside and can be a big improver.
Race 6. (14:42) 4 Pines Hcp 1000m
Back on a firmer surface, back to 1000m, stack of speed in front, it sets up perfect for 8 Sharpe Hussler (Bet Now: $7.50) to blouse these. Forget he went around at Doomben last time out. Track was too wet and 1110m on testing ground, at this level, is a bridge too far. Like him back to this sort of set up and did place in the Hinkler.
6 Just Orm (Bet Now: $10.00) can be a definite improver here. Impressive winner three back at the Sunny Coast in a similar race to this before being sent to Stakes grade where he was outclassed but far from disgraced, the latest in the Hinkler behind Scallopini. Tends to save his best for just below Stakes grade and back to this level, he’s a leading chance.
10 Wirnpa (Bet Now: $21.00) is a Team Hulbert trained gelding that had good specking when winning at Eagle Farm two back before remaining there four weeks ago and I thought was far from disgraced in defeat behind the in form Jami Lady. Think this guy is more effective on bigger tracks, and he was scratched from a much easier race last Saturday to tackle this.
Race 7. (15:22) G.h. Mumm Hcp 1200m
4 Maddi Rocks (Bet Now: $5.00) looks a great bet. Chris Waller has accepted/scratched her a few times, looking for dry ground, and she gets it here. Quality filly that resumes after a two run Summer prep, which saw her win first up at Canterbury before flopping on wet ground at Warwick Farm. Two trials have been good and she does have a touch of class.
Think 1 Master Jamie (Bet Now: $7.00) will take a power of beating here. He’s a beauty for Graeme Green that puts himself on speed and tries very hard, as we saw first up at Rockhampton when taking on an open handicap, lumping 63.5kg, leading and giving a really good kick, but just felt the pinch late when nabbed on the peg by Raiden. Up to 1200m, weight relief, he’ll prove tough to get past.
8 Euro Belle (Bet Now: $23.00) should run well here for the Gillian Heinrich team. Ran over 1200m at Doomben a fortnight back where she was clearly no match for impressive winner Say Haya, but made up ground late and was a definite pass mark behind the dominant winner. Like her back on firmer footing and can take this out without surprising.
Race 8. (15:58) Stella Artois Hcp 1840m
It’s a proven formula with Chris Waller that he gets one to win, comes back in trip next time before stepping back up trip and winning, so hoping that continues with 11 Mangione (Bet Now: $7.00), a sharp winner at this track/distance two back before coming back to the mile at Doomben and was sound in defeat behind Milk Man. Now back up to 1800m at Eagle Farm, he’s very likeable.
10 Barefoot (Bet Now: $5.50) is starting to get back towards her 3YO form, which saw her be a Stakes class type. Strong winner over the mile here two back before contesting the Sapphire last Saturday when Orman had to take advantage of gate one and she was brave in defeat, finishing fourth. Gets the weight relief, up to 1800m, hard to beat.
2 Gresham (Bet Now: $9.00) can be an improver at odds. Forget he went around two weeks ago at Doomben. The track was near bottomless and he struggled in those conditions, the race won by Milk Man. He gets back up to 1800m which I like, finds firmer footing and the in form Luke Dittman takes the steer. Can bounce back for sure.
Race 9. (16:41) Bright Shadow 1200m
16 Hold The Line (Bet Now: $9.00) has to be given another chance. Was really keen on her at Doomben two weeks ago and in the run, she looked the winner, but Bayliss kept her together, probably sensing the wheels were spin when he’d let her down and that’s exactly what happened when bloused late by Sofie’s Gold Class. Back on firmer footing, she can cause problems here.
The best version of 4 Multaja (Bet Now: $5.00) is certainly capable but she’s been disappointing I think this time in after promising to really do some damage during the Carnival. Close up in the Helen Coughlan and was freshened up soon after with this race in mind. Solid trial win a couple of weeks ago and a fast run 1200m I do like for her.
7 River Racer (Bet Now: $13.00) is knocking on the door for Les Ross and is deserving of blacktype success. Thought she was the winner of the Dane Ripper three weeks ago but just found one better in Love You Lucy, who finished best, just. Convinced she’s going well and with good speed engaged here, can see her sitting back and launching late.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 4 Maddi Rocks
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 1 Humbolt Current
LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 16 Hold The Line
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 6, 8, 10
Leg Two: 1, 4
Leg Three: 2, 5, 9, 10, 11
Leg Four: 2, 4, 7, 16
$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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