5/2/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot

Nine races will be run and won at Ascot on Sunday after the meeting was moved from Saturday, headlined by the Ascot Mile (1600m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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I want to give 4 Mia Gusto (Bet Now:  $SP.00) another chance. Appreciated the fast tempo when a first up winner at this track/distance before going back to 1000m where they rode her somewhat warm and it backfired, tiring late when fourth to surprise winner Pot Shot. I like her back up in trip and with a more patient steer, I am confident she can run a much improved race.

6 Bisector (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been super in two runs/wins this time in. Arrogant win first up at this track/distance before going back to 1000m at Belmont where she got control in front and gave nothing else a look in, drawing clear to win quite well with something in reserve. Like her back up to 1100m, should roll forward and take running down. Leading contender.

7 Hang Glider (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has the gate to settle much closer in the run and be quite dangerous. He ran in the Pot Shot race from two weeks back here where he got back from the wide gate and was never really a winning threat but his finale was more than sound behind the surprise winner. If the gate is indeed used to advantage, I think he can be dangerous.

Pike back on, drawn soft, I’ll side with 3 Sir Mambo (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He ran in a pretty solid race at this track/distance two weeks ago when just behind the speed throughout and battled away pretty well in defeat behind Classic Magnus. Back to this level with Pike on, drawn to get a suck run, he’ll do me as an on top tip but not a race I am keen to bet into.

Back to 1000m I do like for 5 Desert Vixen (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Dominant win fresh at the midweeks over the Belmont 1000m before going to 1200m here a fortnight back and seemed to have her chance but 1200m just sees her out when fourth to Born To Talk. Like her back in trip and drawn to get the box seat, she rates highly as one of the leading contenders.

4 Silkinize (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to have returned in pretty good order for David Harrison. Four weeks between runs since resuming at this track/distance where he got back in the run and made up good headway late in the piece without threatening behind He’s Gold. Staying at 1000m isn’t ideal but if they overdo it in front, look for him to launch late.

9 Cerridwyn (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a former Matty Ellerton trained mare that is seemingly loving life with Michael Lane at Bunbury. Produced a strong finale to win fresh at Narrogin before proving that was no fluke with an impressive win at Belmont on Australia Day. That was 1300m and the way she put them away, 1400m should be ideal, has upside and is heading in the right direction.

5 The Admiral (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been pretty good in two runs back from a spell. Both runs have been at 1400m at Belmont, catching the eye fresh behind Rulelee before letting down with purpose to win around three weeks ago. Interesting he stays at 1400m because he is racing like a rise to the mile would be ideal, but tempo should be genuine and he’ll be strong late.

8 Gold Merits (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing well and if she’s within range on the turn, she has the engine under the hood to take this out. Ran over 1400m a few weeks back here and worked to the line with purpose from off the speed when second to the very much in form Seeable in a good effort. Tricky map, but she will be strong at the end and is knocking on the door.

8 Kohli (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has traditionally done his best racing at the Provincials but he is absolutely flying at the moment and for mine, he finds a winnable Saturday metro race. His last couple of runs have come in feature Provincial sprints, placing in both the Fitzpatrick Plate and Mungrup Sprint. Ran a ripping second during the Carnival over 1200m here and he loves 1400m. Hard to beat against this lot.

5 Seeable (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is unbeaten in two runs for William Lewthwaite. Both starts/wins have come at this track/distance, the latest coming three weeks ago where he led throughout and was there to be run down but loved the way he found under pressure to fend them off and win, which is what he did first up. Rising in grade/depth but hard to knock the way he’s going.

6 Ration Aly (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a David Harrison trained mare that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since Melbourne Cup Day over 2150m here when closing off with purpose late in the piece when second to He’s A Lucky Lad. Can’t find a trial for her, but she is a mare who can sprint well fresh and if they overdo it in front, look for her to launch late.

Pretty confident that 1 A Lot Of Good Men (Bet Now:  $SP.00) makes it 2/2 this time in. Resumed two weeks ago here where he looked a moral on paper and despite a few nervous moments early on in the straight, class came to the fore and he was much too good for them late in the piece. Fitter, up to 1100m, drawn to sit off a good speed, he’ll be one of the strongest at the end.

9 Guarding Heaven (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing like she will eat up 1100m. She resumed two weeks back behind A Lot Of Good Men where she was back and seemingly run off her legs but I thought she closed off her race really well late in the piece behind the good colt. She has a gate to use to settle much closer in the run and will be strong late, so she’s in the mix if the colt is off his game.

14 Super Smink (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Super One filly for Dan Morton that is on debut. This girl has had two trials to get ready for start one, running a close up fourth in the first trial before a strong trial win on Monday at Belmont where she seemed to move quite nicely with something in hand. I doubt she has the engine under the hood to beat A Lot Of Good Men, but should run well all the same.

10 Crystal’s Dream (Bet Now:  $SP.00) takes on the older horses but she finds a winnable Saturday metro race, she maps ideally and CJP seems to click with her. Around three weeks between runs since a dominant win over the mile at Belmont where she led throughout and gave them a spanking as an odds on pop. Good test here taking on the older horses but confident she measures up.

8 Queen Of Jerusalem (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has done a really good job since joining Adam Durrant. Both runs have come at Belmont, catching the eye fresh over 1400m before going to the mile where she got a fair way back in the run but came with a well timed run under CJP, letting down with real purpose late to win. Ran well in the WA Oaks during the Autumn so 1800m here is fine, has upside and will be strong late.

7 Conquered Zone (Bet Now:  $SP.00) tends to race best away from Ascot but for much wider multiples, I could entertain him as a first four threat. Ran in the Speedy Miss race from a few weeks back where he was back and wide with cover. Tried to get involved but couldn’t and was poor behind Speedy Miss. The run prior was good and that sort of effort would see him run well against these.

I want to give 6 Allmamoney (Bet Now:  $SP.00) another chance. This mare has had a couple of runs for Adam Durrant, defying a significant betting drift to win fresh at Pinjarra before going to this track/distance two weeks ago where she got back in the run and was never really a threat but didn’t mind the way she finished her race off behind Weaponson. Hard fit now and hopefully can settle closer in the run to be dangerous.

1 Weaponson (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the key threat. He won the race mentioned above from a fortnight and I thought the positive tactics from Pike was the trick. They had been riding him cold and while he had been working home well, he wasn’t winning. So Pike sent him to the front, got control and gave nothing else a look in, leading throughout for a good win. More depth here but now he’s found winning form, he can go on with it.

Back to the mile I find interesting with 4 Pat’s Got Sass (Bet Now:  $SP.00). She ran over 2200m three weeks back here where she seemed to have her chance but was far from disgraced in defeat behind a handy stayer in Coolth. Back to the mile I find interesting, whether this is a prep run for something, not sure, but she does have the runs on the board to be in with a shout, especially with Paul Harvey booked.

It’s hard to get away from 5 The Velvet Queen (Bet Now:  $SP.00). This mare is absolutely flying this time in. She went within a lip of winning the La Trice over 1800m two back before coming back to 1500m two weeks ago where it was a cool, confident ride from Parnham and he timed the run on the mare to absolute perfection to nail them late. Getting back up in trip, similar opposition, good luck beating her.

3 No Apology (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to be in for a good prep. He resumed behind The Velvet Queen a fortnight back where he was off the speed throughout and chasing from a fair way out but I thought he ran through the pain barrier and stuck it out pretty well in defeat behind the in form mare. Doubt he turns the tables, but with good upside, think he is a near lock to run a hole.

7 Bruce Almighty (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one to entertain for wider multiples. He did a bit too much work from the wide gate last time behind The Velvet Queen and that early burn told late, finishing down the track, but to be fair, he was only beaten just under four lengths. If he gets a cheaper run on speed this time around, think he can run a much improved race.

5 Ain’t No Other Man (Bet Now:  $SP.00) hasn’t won in forever it seems like but he has been around the mark throughout the prep and I think will take beating in what is seemingly a winnable race. ran over this track/distance three weeks ago where he was doing work from a tricky gate to find a spot but credit to him, he kept finding and stuck on well when third to Warm N Fuzzy. Maps ideally, I think he’s a safe option.

7 Stellar Vista (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a daughter of Star Witness for Simon Miller that resumes. She hasn’t raced since November 12 over the mile here where she got a mile out of her ground but made up zero headway and it was an end of prep run behind Megazone. Seems more a 1200m-1400m horse, she flies fresh and looked sharp in a recent trial. Hard to beat I’d suggest.

4 Stay Safe (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes here with fresh legs and is a market watch I’d suggest. His last run came on December 7 over 1800m here when well supported in the market but didn’t quite fire and was a tad on the plain side behind surprise winner Ripon Falls. Freshened up back to 1200m tells me this is a prep run, but booking Brad Parnham, to me, signals some level of intent, so watch the market.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 5 The Velvet Queen

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 1 A Lot Of Good Men

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 8 Kohli

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 8, 10

Leg Two: 1, 4, 6, 10, 12

Leg Three: 5

Leg Four: 2, 4, 7, 11

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