The Ascot Summer Carnival winds up on Saturday with a strong nine race card, headlined by the time honoured Perth Cup (2400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Perth Cup 🏆: View the Field for the Perth Cup
Race 1. (15:24) Tabtouch Plate 1000m
Keen here on 5 Sunnysilk (Bet Now: $2.90) for the David Harrison team. Was very well supported when debuting over 1100m here two weeks ago but a tardy beginning meant she had to ease back to last yet worked home strongly to just miss out on picking up American Choice. Back to 1000m is the negative but do like the booking of Smokin Joe.
1 American Choice (Bet Now: $5.50) has the hard race experience under her belt and that should carry her a long way towards victory. Won the race mentioned above and it was down to the ride from McNaught, who got going on the turn to put the pressure on and that’s what won the race. Had the margin on Sunnysilk and was too good. Back to 1000m I like and is the one to beat.
It’s always difficult to get a guide on the 400m trials, but I was impressed by the way 9 Janaura (Bet Now: $9.00) won her trial. She’s a daughter of Safeguard for Paul Jordan, a stable that is very good with their youngsters, and this filly looks pretty sharp if that trial win is any guide. Think she can come over from the gate and give a sight on speed.
Race 2. (16:04) Amelia Park (bm61+) 1000m
4 Indian Pacific (Bet Now: $1.95) on top for me. Neville Parnham trains this son of Zoustar, who was very sharp when winning on debut at this track/distance back on December 18, showing sustained speed from the front and giving his rivals no look in at all. Tricky draw on paper, but I think he has Jenja and We’ve Got Dreams around him, two speed runners, so he gets over comfortably enough IMO.
Fitter and back to his own age are two big ticks for the Dan Morton trained 2 Jenja (Bet Now: $4.20), who was seven weeks between runs when racing at Bunbury on Saturday against the older horses and just looked in need of the run when a close up fifth to Route Eighty Eight. Pike on a big tick and does find a winnable race if he brings his best.
Big step up in grade/depth for 9 Guesteen (Bet Now: $8.50) but I thought her debut win at Bunbury was pretty good. Despite being unwanted in betting, she finished off strongly from the back and edged clear late to win. Did she beat much? I’m saying no, but she’s got plenty of room for improvement and could be dangerous if gate one is used to advantage.
Race 3. (16:44) Ascend Sales Trophies (bm66+) 1600m
8 Over There (Bet Now: $8.00) on top, just, in what looks a two horse race. This mare jumped from 1300m straight to the mile here two weeks ago when given a lovely steer by Brad Parnham and he did everything bar get it home, getting bloused right on the peg by Perceptive Miss. Blinkers come off, so should be able to relax and that 1600m run should toughen her up for this.
Good sign that 2 Megazone (Bet Now: $2.60) is on the quick back up for Ashley Maley after last Saturday. Was on Midnight Sky, so thankfully she won, but I think you could easily make a case that with clear air, Megazone wins. Just couldn’t build up momentum at the right time and it was an ugly watch if you were on. Hopefully gets clear air from the wide gate this time around and prove hard to beat.
5 Black Shadow (Bet Now: $7.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be ready fitness wise. He comes through a December 18 race won by Megazone where he was unlucky not to finish closer given he was held up most of the straight, but at the same time, he was out early enough to dash. Can sit near the speed now he’s got the fitness base and be dangerous at odds.
Race 4. (17:24) Mumm Champagne (bm62+) 2200m
1 Sentimental Gift (Bet Now: $1.90) looks the most obvious. Ran over this track/distance two weeks ago where she did her usual thing of getting a fair way back in the run before building the revs into the straight and launching, just missing out on the win when second to British Bessy. The depth here looks much weaker hence rising to 60kg, but she looks the one to beat.
4 Alimentaria (Bet Now: $3.50) is the new kid on the block and I think she can measure up and run well here. She has won three on the bounce and has seemingly got better and better with each outing, the latest seeing her spank her rivals at Pinjarra with Pike on, who jumps off to ride Sentimental Gift. She looks the key and I dare say only serious threat to the toppie.
2 Push To Pass (Bet Now: $18.00) is one for multiples. Ashley Maley trains this gelding and he’s racing okay without winning. Comes through the British Bessy race mentioned above where he was near the speed throughout and looked to travel well but when the pressure came on, he couldn’t go with them. Gets the run of the race from gate one so I’d be including in exotics.
Race 5. (18:00) Seppelt The Drives (rs1mw) 1400m
Very keen to see 10 Inspirational Girl (Bet Now: $3.50) resume for Team Williams. This daughter of Reliable Man is 2/2 in her career to date, both wins coming during the early part of the Winter and each run she was impressive. Been given a good break, and her two trials leading in have been pretty good to the eye, so keen to see how she goes.
12 Stevie’s Wonder (Bet Now: $14.00) is a son of Pierro for Sean Casey who may want further, but looks to have enough quality to figure despite the horror gate. Resumed over 1400m at Northam back on November 27 and just lacked the change up speed to win the race but stuck on pretty well in defeat. If he can get luck from the gate, he can win.
Couldn’t back 2 Wanna Be Good (Bet Now: $12.00) to win with borrowed money but up to 1400m and on the quick back up, he could improve big time. Was on him last Saturday over 1100m here but I thought he did little behind State Attorney. Perhaps just run off his legs? Looking for excuses perhaps, but if the Williams horse isn’t ready, this race is wide open.
Race 6. (18:40) La Trice Classic 1800m
2 Mizlecki (Bet Now: $3.60) has upside I feel and she can take this out. Far from disgraced in the Railway before being given a let up and ran in the Starstruck where Snowchino got an absolute picnic in front and those behind, including this mare, had no chance. Up to 1800m looks a big tick for her and gets a sweet trip from the gate.
1 Perfect Jewel (Bet Now: $4.80) is a big improver out to a more ideal trip. Another that comes through the Starstruck and I think just forget she went around. Snowchino got a soft time of it in front and Perfect Jewel, due to the slow speed, pulled her head off and had nothing left for the straight. Blinkers come off, Pike on, she’s a live chance.
Lindsey Smith loves to put a plan in place for feature races, so I find 7 Eye Art (Bet Now: $18.00) interesting. Resumed in the Starstruck and like most engaged behind the winner, the race just didn’t suit her at all and she struggled to make ground in what was a real on pace dominated affair. Up to 1800m, with upside, in the right stable to bounce back hard.
Race 7. (19:20) Summer Scorcher 1000m
If she gets luck from gate one, I think 6 Essential Spice (Bet Now: $3.30) is the pony to bet on. Big win when resuming at this track/distance on December 18, with class getting her home in the end in a good finish. Senior jock on, with the minimum weight, and a stack of upside, she’ll take some beating provided she doesn’t get buried back on the fence.
Colin Webster has 10 Undisclosed (Bet Now: $8.50) in career best form. She’s just gone to a new level this time in, just missing out on beating Essential Spice in the race mentioned above before backing up three days later and winning impressively. I think she can get sit behind Essential Spice and follow every move Smokin Joe makes.
How far back does 3 Profit Street (Bet Now: $15.00) get is the big question, but he does have a big finish on him if he’s right. Hasn’t raced since the Scahill when a somewhat disappointing fifth to The Celt after getting every chance it seemed. 1000m is short of his best, but if he’s within range on the turn, he’s certainly good enough to win.
Race 8. (20:00) Perth Cup 2400m
It looks a deadset race in two between 1 Star Exhibit (Bet Now: $4.40) and Mississippi Delta, with a slight leaning towards the former, who is looking to win his third Perth Cup after taking it out in 2016 and last year. He has been set for this race all prep and comes here in ripping form after a third in the Ten Van Heemst in what was a real sit/sprint, which didn’t suit him, but he closed off well. Tempo will be more genuine and he’ll be strong.
7 Mississippi Delta (Bet Now: $2.70) is the one punters will want because it’s late in the day and Pike on a Peters horse. She’s a leading chance, and perhaps the key/only threat to Star Exhibit. Still, I thought she was just fair in the Ted Van Heemst behind Regal Power. Big thing going for her is the weight pull she gets on Star Exhibit hence why she’s favourite.
5 Friar Fox (Bet Now: $27.00) lacks the class of the first two and doubt she wins, but for multiples, she’s a must. Comes through the ATA last Saturday where she did her usual thing of sitting off speed and grinding home, running fourth to Spiritual Warrior. That was her first run in a month, so you’d like to think there is room for improvement, and does no work from the gate.
Race 9. (20:40) Crown Perth (bm72+) 1200m
A nation will roar for a hero aka Pike if 4 Festival Miss (Bet Now: $4.00) can win the get out. Talented mare for Team Williams that is first up, having not raced since August 31 at Belmont when a closing third to Mad Brad in a race which had far greater depth than what she faces here. Trial at Lark Hil was sharp. Just needs to hold up from gate one to just about be winning.
If it’s a swoopers race, I want shares in the Sean Casey trained 7 Fairview (Bet Now: $7.50). Resumed over this track/distance on December 18 and worked home with real purpose late to run second to Classic Pro, just missing out on the win. Should get decent three wide cover from the gate and we know she has a big finish on her.
3 Speeding Comet (Bet Now: $17.00) is a horse I couldn’t back to win again given he’s let me down too many times, but he does go in all multiples as cover. Just missed out on the win first up behind Downforce before finding a hot race and tiring late behind Essential Spice. This race looks much weaker, so an improved showing is on the cards.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Four Number 1 Sentimental Gift
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 5 Sunnysilk
LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 8 Over There
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7
Leg Two: 1, 3, 6, 10
Leg Three: 1, 7
Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 7
$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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