The Warrnambool Carnival continues on Wednesday where the sprinters get to showcase their stuff in the Wangoom Handicap (1200m), while the best hurdlers in the business slog it out in the Galleywood Hurdle (3200m). The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (11:20) : Optus Shop Warrnambool Maiden Plate 1400m:
7 Sadler’s River on top for me in a really tricky maiden to kick off the program. Anne McGrath trained mare who resumed at Penola and was a real eye catcher late, working home with purpose to run third to She’s Got Rhythm, and that form has been franked. Has upside and I like that Declan Bates jumps on.
Big Danger: 6 Rowdy Rousey (Bet Now: $4.80) is bursting to win a maiden for the Thornton camp and I think she gets her chance here. Ran over 1400m on Terang Cup Day where she looked all over a winner but just felt the pinch when a fighting second to Aurora Rising. Looks to map well here and Meech remains on which I like.
Long Shot: 8 She’s The Master (Bet Now: $19.00) was an alarming drifter in the market when debuting at Stawell and the market fluc proved correct after having a nice sit just off the speed, she failed to go on with it. Should come on from that outing, trained on the track and Yendall remains on. Knockout chance.
Race Two (11:50) : iDetect Maiden Plate 1700m:
Back Me: 4 Euroman (Bet Now: $4.40) on top for me in a really tricky maiden event. He has had three career outings for Darren Weir, the latest coming over 1800m at Warracknabeal where he was off the bit a fair way out and was really one paced but stuck on quite well. Give in the ground might be what this horse is looking for and John Allen takes over.
Big Danger: 8 Celestial Jewel (Bet Now: $3.50) is a handy mare for the Beer/Hinton camp and looks a leading contender here. She ran over 1450m at Kilmore last time out where she was given every chance in the run and tried hard but couldn’t quite peg back Atomic Kitten. Looks a littl query at the 1700m but has the form on the board.
Long Shot: 7 Youl Beatem (Bet Now: $15.00) was unwanted in betting when resuming over 1400m at Pakenham where he got a mile back in the run and finished off nicely despite starting long odds behind Publisher. The rise to 1700m looks perfect and the form from the first prep reads very well.
Race Three (12:20) : Winning Edge Presentations Maiden Plate 1700m:
Back Me: 10 Truly High (Bet Now: $4.20) on top for me here. Darren Weir trained gelding that resumed over 1400m at Bendigo a tick over two weeks back and closed off with real purpose late to run third to Stornaway. Looks perfectly placed second up at the 1700m here, bred to handle give in the track, has enormous upside and the Weir polish.
Big Danger: 6 Flag Time (Bet Now: $11.00) was 29 days between runs when racing over the Kilmore mile where he got a mile back in the run and took forever to wind up but once he got going he was good late when fourth to Young Hostess. Should improve off that and gets Craig Williams steering which is a good lead.
Long Shot: 8 Patriot Day (Bet Now: $14.00) also comes through the Stornaway race at Bendigo and his effort was pretty good also, though not quite as good as Truly High. He too got back in the run and worked home well but never really threatened. I think Truly High will beat him again here, but he is a must for exotics.
Race Four (12:50) : Bottle-O Warrnambool Handicap (70) 1400m:
Back Me: 4 Kellstorm (Bet Now: $12.00) is the big, big watch here. Former Irish galloper that makes his Australian debut for the Darren Weir camp and OTI Racing. His form from overseas does read okay, though it’s nothing to jump up and down about. Still, we know the record the stable has with tried overseas runners, and is first up here, so expect him wound up.
Big Danger: 7 Lord Tennyson (Bet Now: $2.80) won at this Carnival last year and looks near the mark to go close again in 2017. Resumed over 1200m at Pakenham where he had the 1/1 sit and looked to travel well in the run but his condition just gave out late. Williams booked is a positive sign for mine, he has upside and loves racing on his home track.
Long Shot: 8 Sniper (Bet Now: $4.80) is probably the best horse in the race but he just never can quite put it together despite being loaded with ability. Hasn’t raced for 47 days since racing at the Valley where he stuck on well behind the low flying import Fastnet Latina. Does tend to race best fresh and loves give in the track.
Race Five (13:30) : Decron Maiden Hurdle 3200m:
Back Me: Very ordinary maiden hurdle but 10 Something To Share (Bet Now: $2.35) does look the one. He ran in a Bendigo maiden hurdle two back and loomed to win but had to settle for second to Duke Of Boneo before going to the Stawell Cup where he ran a bold race at odds behind Mujadale. He has the flat form on the board as well as an encouraging jumps display.
Big Danger: 4 Black Tie (Bet Now: $12.00) is having another crack at the jumps and looks ready to handle it now. He has had three runs back from a break, all on the flat, and has steadily got better each time he has stepped out. Three jumps trials during that time also have been quite good and looks much sharper compared to last season.
Long Shot: 5 Bring Back (Bet Now: $15.00)was 57 days between runs when racing over 2700m at Stawell when finishing down the track behind Valhalla Princess before contesting a hot hurdle race and was far from disgraced behind Arch Fire, a star jumper. That is the best hurdle form going around, so he has to be considered here.
Race Six (14:10) : Sovereign Resort Galleywood Hurdle 3200m:
Back Me: 6 Renew (Bet Now: $3.10) on top for me, but only just. Talented galloper for the Weir camp who ahs found his calling, over the jumps. Ran in the Hurdle on Easter Monday at Oakbank and despite jumping the last couple poorly, his class got him home. This is his toughest test to date over the jumps, but I think he is capable.
Big Danger: 1 Arch Fire (Bet Now: $3.70) is the proven performer who is a previous winner of this race. Looks spot on to go close to repeating the dose after a dominant win at Pakenham, aided by an absolute peach of a steer from Jamie Mott. He has a stack of upside left, Mott sticks and the compressed weights suits him perfectly.
Long Shot: 4 Honey Steel’s Gold (Bet Now: $9.00) returns to the hurdles after going over the steeples in recent times, the last start resulting in a fall at Oakbank before the Easter Carnival. Trial here was okay and I think back to the hurdles will suit him. He certainly has the quality to figure here with clean jumping.
Race Seven (14:50) : Sylvan Ridge Futurity Handicap (70) 1400m:
Back Me: 11 Zolani (Bet Now: $4.00) gets the nod here. Ciaron Maher trained galloper that trialled up well prior to resuming over 1200m here where she was given a lovely steer just off the pace by Meech and the filly reacted, dashing and drawing clear late. Little freshen up since, but that won’t be an excuse to my eye.
Big Danger: 5 Fortify (Bet Now: $9.50) is a talented gelding for Henry Dwyer that has had two career outings, both coming at Wangaratta. Bumped into Oamaru on debut before breaking the maiden tag next start despite a few anxious moments in the run. Looks to have enormous upside and is bred to handle the track.
Long Shot: 12 Leishman (Bet Now: $31.00) might have started $20 when breaking the maiden status last time out at Hamilton, but there was a bit of dominance to the win. When asked for the effort at the top of the straight, he put the race away in a couple of strides and was impressive. Trained on the track and he proved last start that a wet surface won’t be an issue.
Race Eight (15:25) : Midfield Group Wangoom Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: Pretty keen here on 15 Chase The Horizon (Bet Now: $10.00). The gelding looks to have really done the trick with this galloper. Resumed over 1100m at Caulfield a tick over two weeks back and worked home with real purpose behind Miss Vista. That form was well and truly franked on Saturday, he loves give in the ground, goes well second up, draws well…ticks alot of boxes.
Big Danger: 1 Jungle Edge (Bet Now: $3.10) is the class performer here and the clear horse to beat. Had an amazing Sydney prep, with a Stakes win sandwiched in between Group l placings. Not badly hurt at the weights, and the gate isn’t a worry. Should lead for fun and take a power of beating.
Long Shot: 8 Well Sprung (Bet Now: $16.00)was a real eye catcher in a couple of runs before going to the Bel Esprit where he was disappointing to my eye behind Malibu Style but I think forgive/forget he went around given he was well back in the ruck in a race dominated by those near the speed. He will get back again, but if he is close enough on the turn, he’ll go close.
Race Nine (16:00) : Warrnambool Hyunda Handicap (70) 1000m:
Back Me: 4 Removal (Bet Now: $3.20)is a nice type that is three weeks between runs here for Nick Ryan. Last ran over 1000m at Ballarat where he sat outside the speed and looked to travel sweetly in the run before dashing clear late and spanking his rivals. Hot and cold at times, but when he is on, he’s pretty good.
Big Danger: 8 Bay Of Biscay (Bet Now: $8.50)was 43 days between runs when racing over 1100m a Werribee last time out and despite being a drifter in the market, he was very sharp. Had the soft run behind the speed before angling nearer the inside and showing a lovely turn of foot. Bit more depth here, but he should only improve off that.
Long Shot: 5 Bulls ‘N’ Bears (Bet Now: $16.00) is a talented gelding that resumes for the Chris Parry yard. Formerly with the Hayes/Dabernig camp before joining Cody Morgan. He’s a very talented horse when he is right, but he has had horrible feet issues. Jump outs have been quite good and I am tipping him to run well fresh.
Race Ten (16:30) : Sinclair Wilson Handicap (64) 1700m:
Back Me: 5 High Lago (Bet Now: $4.20) looks one of the better bets on the program, so hopefully he can get the job done in the get out. Resumed over 1500m at Bendigo where he had a nice sit near the speed but just lacked the turn of foot to go with them when fourth to Kansas Sunflower. Up to 1700m second up looks ideal, give in the track a plus and has a good record at the Bool.
Big Danger: 3 Ready Right Now (Bet Now: $1.00) is a handy yet frustrating gallopers that resumes for the Tony McEvoy yard. Best form is over further, but he did look pretty good in a recent trial on the Parks track in SA who ran well on the weekend with no luck. Williams booked is a good lead so respect market moves.
Long Shot: 1 Robbie’s A Star (Bet Now: $10.00) is the big improver here for mine at silly odds. His three runs back from a break have been better than what the form guide will say. Forget last start at Hamilton given he railed up and the rail that day was quicksand. Good record on his home track and gets the claim for Caserta.
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BEST BET: Race Six Number 6 Renew
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 10 Truly High
VALUE: Race Eight Number 15 Chase The Horizon
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5, 11, 12
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 8, 15
Leg Three: 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 11
Leg Four: 1, 3, 5, 6, 7
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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