The Tassie Summer Carnival continues to warm up this Friday at Hobart where it is Tasmanian Derby Day. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (14:12) : Navy Maiden 1100m:
Back Me: 7 Loose In Vegas (Best Odds: $1.60) looked to trial well here prior to resuming over this track/distance on January 22 where she was an even money pop and didn’t quite get the job done for punters despite a relatively nice run near the tempo when third to Newts. Should strip fitter for that outing and given the scratchings, this is a very thin race. Should be winning.
Big Danger: 8 Miss Che Che (Best Odds: $3.20) came home strongly when resuming over this track/distance to run a close second to Hellmuth before again racing at the same trip and disappointing when down the track behind Taramaya. She is much better than that, and I am tipping her to bounce back hard third up off the flat second up effort, plus she gets Froggy steering.
Long Shot: 2 Millmount (Best Odds: $7.00) is a former Victorian that is making his Tassie debut off the back of just one run back on the mainland, which came on the Pakenham Synthetic in what has turned out to be a strong maiden. Trials leading in have been sharp to the eye, draws well and overall, this isn’t a strong race.
Race Two (14:47) : Cascade Draught Handicap (Class 5) 1100m:
Back Me: 2 I’m Wesley (Best Odds: $2.70) is a talented sprinter for the Stevenson camp who comes here off a little freshen up. He last raced on Devonport Cup Day in the feature sprint race when settling just off the tempo before angling clear and working home strongly to just miss out on picking up Gee Gee Red Prince. Has the form on the board and though his record at Hobart isn’t flash, I’m happy to be in his corner.
Big Danger: 7 Bella Venus (Best Odds: $4.60) was nominated for the Bow Mistress but instead runs here in the easier event. She attempted to lead all the way last time out at Launceston a tick over two weeks ago and gave a solid kick but was no match late for Naadam. Got a very good record at Hobart and maps well once again.
Long Shot: 3 Merrick’s Beauty (Best Odds: $5.50) is a talented mare that is first up after just one run in the Winter where she was a flop on the Devonport Synthetic behind Le Bel Opera. Been given a really good break and her trial win was outstanding, beating home Chillout. Looks to have come back in good order, so I think she has to be rated highly here.
Race Three (15:27) : Elwick Functions & Events Handicap (Class 2) 1200m:
Back Me: Going to take the chance with 4 Love Magic (Best Odds: $4.60). Former Patrick Payne galloper that is now with the Brunton camp. He ran some okay races when trained in Victoria but was very consistent so perhaps the change of scenery could do him good, and based on his trial win recently, that does appear to be the case.
Big Danger: 2 Killin Falls (Best Odds: $4.60) looks a leading contender here. He has been given a five week freshen up since racing over 1200m at Launceston where he got back to near last in the run and savaged the line late when getting up to beat Zatacla. That horse has since placed in the Tassie Guineas and bolted up, so that form reads very well, and if Killin Falls gets the speed on in front of him, look out.
Long Shot: 6 Col’s Hero (Best Odds: $14.00) is probably the best horse in the race but he just can’t put it all together and greet the judge. He ran over 1100m here on January 22 where he had the nice sit just off the pace and tried hard but just didn’t threaten when fourth to Boart. As I said, he’s the best horse in the race and with his A-Game, he’d beat these.
Race Four (16:04) : Carbine Club 3YO Plate 1100m:
Back Me: Taking the chance on 1 Chillout (Best Odds: $2.60), who has some really good ability when right but he just hasn’t quite put it all together this time in. The son of Artie Schiller hasn’t raced since early December at Launceston when finishing seventh to star filly Hot Dipped over 1200m. Been given the freshen up and trialled okay at Longford despite being pushed out. If he brings his best, he wins. But can he be trusted? Time will tell, but I’ll take the gamble.
Big Danger: 2 Gee Gee Spitfire (Best Odds: $5.50) deserves a crack at this level off the back of two wins on the bounce, starting off over 1150m on the Devonport Synthetic before racing over 1200m at Launceston where he took on the older horses and found plenty when challenged late. Rises in depth, but looks promising and maps well.
Long Shot: 3 Count Montagu (Best Odds: $11.00) comes back to the sprint trip after racing in the Tassie Guineas (1600m) over three weeks back where he sat near the speed and though beaten at the top of the straight, he fought on quite well in defeat behind Hot Dipped. 1600 back to 1100 is a little query, but he has quality and the hard fitness.
Race Five (16:42) : Pimms Handicap (Class 1) 1100m:
Back Me: 2 Kuusela (Best Odds: $2.40) was kept quite safe in the market when resuming over 1200m here where she came over from the wide gate to lead at a good gallop and kick clear in the straight but it was her first run since September and her condition just gave out late when nabbed late by Taramaya. Should strip fitter and rates highly.
Big Danger: 1 Ariconte (Best Odds: $3.00) is a handy enough gelding that resumes for the Trinder camp. He ran three decent races on the Devonport Synthetic before being ridden upside down at Launceston and tipped out. Resumes here off the back of no trials, but draws the right part of the track and sprints well fresh.
Long Shot: 5 Tough Missile (Best Odds: $6.50) can be a hard mare to trust and follow but I thought she wasn’t too bad when racing over 1200m here on January 22 when sitting midfield in the run and sticking on quite well in defeat behind Trot On Candy. Not sure she sees out a strong 1200m so back to 1100m here suits and this isn’t a strong race.
Race Six (17:22) : Schweppes Tasmanian Derby 2200m:
Back Me: I took a risk against 1 Northwest Passage (Best Odds: $1.33) last time out but I won’t be making the same mistake again. He is the clear horse to beat off the back of a spank job of his rivals last start in the key lead up to this, the Hobart Guineas (2100m) where he led them a merry dance and absolutely trotted up. Meets a near identical field, so I think he’ll repeat the dose.
Big Danger: 4 Matanoa (Best Odds: $8.50) was 20 days between runs when racing over 2040m at the Valley last start where he sat near the tempo and fought on quite well I thought in defeat behind the very promising Wheal Leisure. Patrick Payne has had good success when bring horses to Tasmania previously and he should have upside left.
Long Shot: I tipped 2 Shadow Prince (Best Odds: $11.00) in the Guineas and thought he could knock off Northwest Passage but he was very plain over the final 600m and was clearly no match for the Waterhouse/Bott runner. I think that will be the case once again, but Callow jumps on now and his vigour might spark this horse into action.
Race Seven (18:05) : Magic Millions Bow Mistress 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Lyuba (Best Odds: $3.20) is an absolute ripper for the Darren Weir yard. Never runs a bad race and busts her gut every start. That was on display last time out at Caulfield where she had a charmed run behind the tempo and when presented by Allen she looked the winner but she couldn’t quite reel in Prussian Vixen. Stable knows what it takes to win when on the road, apart from NSW, and this mare does look well placed on the freshen up.
Big Danger: 1 I Love It (Best Odds: $2.50) is a ripping mare for John Salanitri who is back in Tassie and first up. She ran a couple of really good races during the Melbourne Spring, including a seventh on Derby Day behind subsequent Group l runner up Sheidel. Jump outs have been quite encouraging, she goes well fresh despite what the record states, and she ran a narrow second in this race last year.
Long Shot: 7 Trot O Candy (Best Odds: $15.00) is a talented a local mare who deserves a crack at this level for the Goggin/Meaburn team. She ran over 1100m here last time out in the Lady Lynette where she sat off the speed before coming to the better part of the track under Troy Baker and she bolted in. Meets a couple of handy ones here, but she has home track advantage and is hard fit/in form.
Race Eight (18:37) : PFD Food Services Handicap (Class 3) 1600m:
Back Me: 2 Zatacla (Best Odds: $4.00) looks on par with Northwest Passage in terms of being a good thing. He was far from disgraced in the Tassie Guineas behind Hot Dipped before dropping back to a Maiden/Class One where he was given a 12/10 from Ganderton and the horse walked in. Just needs to repeat that to smash these up.
Big Danger: 3 Follow My Dust (Best Odds: $7.50) resumed on New Years Day at Longford where he was hard in the market and ran rally well but had to settle for a narrow second to Beaufort Lad before running a beauty second up behind Blaze Forth after getting back to near last in the run. Very good third up record, draws well and gets Callow steering.
Long Shot: 5 Kompressor (Best Odds: $12.00) can be a hard horse to follow but there was alot to like about his last start win over 1400m at Launcseton given he was no cover for the most of the trip yet he cruised to the front at the top of the straight and drew clear late. Suited up in trip, draws well and has upside.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 2 Zatacla
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 1 Northwest Passage
VALUE: Race Three Number 4 Love Magic
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5
Leg Two: 1
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 7
Leg Four: 2
$50 Investment= 312.50% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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