The Randwick track last Saturday was an absolute disgrace, so here’s hoping the surface at Rosehill will play much better this Saturday. In saying that, the rail is out three metres, so it will be no disadvantage being up on the speed.
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Race One (11:55) : TAB Early Quaddie Plate 1350m Form Guide
Back Me: Tough two year old race to kick off the program. Leaning towards Brazen Moss (Best Odds: $5.00), who worked home stoutly at Kensington last week after getting held up in the early parts of the straight. Coming back 50m in distance here, which is a slight concern, but the stable have had a fab season with their babies and is back on his home track.
Big Danger: Exalted Warrior (Best Odds: $4.60) resumes here for Gai Waterhouse after a solid opening campaign in the Autumn, culminating with a second to Modoc at Newcastle. That horse went on to perform strongly at Group level, so the form reads very well for this, and did look strong in a recent barrier trial placing.
Roughie: Cramant (Best Odds: $7.50) is a stablemate of Modoc, and while he won’t match the feats of his stablemate, he’ll run a bold race off the back of a fast finishing fourth at Warwick Farm under three weeks ago. He’ll love the step up to 1400m and getting onto a bigger track.
$250 Brazen Moss Free Bet
Race Two (12:35) : Hyland Race Colours Handicap (75) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: There has been plenty to like about the way Tail Risk (Best Odds: $9.00) has come through her grades, and she was quite impressive when coming from well back to win a race during the Scone Carnival. Again carries no weight here, this time thanks to Taylor Marshall, and there is no reason why she can’t make it four on the trot.
Big Danger: Papillon Rouge (Best Odds: $4.40) was outclassed when resuming in the South Pacific Classic, then dropped back in distance and grade, and hit the line with purpose when a close up sixth. Back up to 1400m, and from a good draw, expect Macca to take full advantage of it, especially with the rail out.
Roughie: Vocalise (Best Odds: $14.00), a stablemate of Tail Risk, might have two duck eggs next to his name this prep, but each run has been better than face value. Wasn’t suited by the slow pace first up at Warwick Farm, then went to Scone and never really got clear in the race Tail Risk saluted in. With normal luck here, she can turn her form around.
$250 Tail Risk Free Bet
Race Three (13:15) : McGrath Estate Agents Handicap (78) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Really keen here on Blackboard Special (Best Odds: $5.50), All of his runs this time in he has been ridden off the speed and been asked to chase them down, which he has done in okay fashion without being great. But with the claim for Winona Costin, the gelding will only carry 51kg, so I am anticipating they will adopt the tactics of early on in his career and shoot him out from the gates and let him run. If that eventuates, with the weight pull…he’ll prove terribly hard to beat.
Big Danger: Amovatio (Best Odds: $9.00) turned it up on several occasions when last in work, so the confidence punters have with him is at zero, but he has trialled very nicely, and first up last time in, he should have bolted in but got badly checked ironically by the top tip in a messy race over this track/distance.
Roughie: Scatcat (Best Odds: $12.00) returns to Sydney after running some solid races in Melbourne, the latest being a solid fourth to Hot Mama down the Flemington straight. Last time he raced in Sydney was during the Championships where he came from well back to run fifth to Politeness. A repeat of that will see him go close here.
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Race Four (13:53) : Instagram @ATCRaces Handicap (85) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: You’ll Never (Best Odds: $6.50) wasn’t suited by the farcical tempo set by the leaders last Saturday at Randwick, so for him to run on and finish as close as he did was outstanding. Yet to fire in three runs on his home track here, but his run behind Forster tells me that record will change sooner rather than later.
Big Danger: Getting close to D-Day for Mount Nebo (Best Odds: $4.60). Excellent first up run behind Two Blue at Randwick, then went around in that Forster race and was a close up sixth, beaten just over a length. The big key here is drawing barrier one and retaining the Lester Grace claim. No excuses today.
Roughie: Sir Berus (Best Odds: $11.00) worked to the line very strongly too in that race won by Forster here. He generally needs a run or two under the belt, like Oakfield Commands, to find his feet, but like that horse, the fact he ran so well here a couple of weeks back tells me he’ll be winning races this prep.
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Race Five (14:33) : TAB Quaddie Handicap (85) 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: Longshoreman (Best Odds: $4.80) was given a lovely ride by Tim Clark to win last week at Kensington, slotting into the one out one back spot, peeling out on the turn, sprinting clear and finding plenty when asked. He was disappointing first up at Hawkesbury, but showed his true colours last week, so I am tipping he will go on with it.
Big Danger: Our Desert Warrior (Best Odds: $8.50) had a disastrous Autumn. First up he wasn’t suited by the slow speed, then second up he dislodged a tooth before the running a howler at Warwick Farm. Hasn’t trialled, which is very unlike the Waterhouse stable, so I’d say to watch betting moves closely with this horse, because we know the ability is there.
Roughie: Timeless Prince (Best Odds: $7.00) was suited by the fast tempo at Scone and stormed down the middle of the track to get the bikkies. He is racing so well at the moment and deserves another crack in town given he is at the peak of his powers.
$250 Longshoreman Free Bet
Race Six (15:10) : Eremein Handicap 1800m Form Guide
Back Me: Well if ever Full Of Spirit (Best Odds: $6.00) is going to win a race, then surely this is. All of her recent runs have been at blacktype level against much tougher company than this. Her run in the Scone Cup was outstanding considering the pace wasn’t overly strong enough for her to be entitled to run on. Needs a confidence boosting win and should get that here.
Big Danger: I’m Imposing (Best Odds: $3.20) tried his heart out here in the Lord Mayors Cup but just couldn’t quite get past Zephyron. That horse went on to bolt in the Premiers Cup at Doomben last Saturday, so the form is very good heading into this event. Gets in very well after the claim for Taylor Marshall and looks one of the hardest to beat.
Roughie: Rowie (Best Odds: $17.00) dumped Ichikawa at Hawkesbury on the stand alone meeting, then went to the Scone Cup and never got into the race when tenth to Cameo. Finds his right level here and the extra furlong might be just what he needs. An improver at odds if he gets the right run.
$250 Full Of Spirit Free Bet
Race Seven (15:50) : Theraces.com.au Handicap (80) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Going for some value in Urgent Bells (Best Odds: $12.00) Hasn’t won for a while, but she really savaged the line at Scone after settling a mile off them and peeling very wide on the turn. Won’t be too far away from barrier two and is on the limit. Should get a hot speed to run on to and looks a great value bet.
Big Danger: Holy Delusions (Best Odds: $8.00) comes back to Sydney after running at Sportingbet Park in late April where she wasn’t suited by the slow tempo. Her run prior at Warwick Farm behind Centrepet was outstanding and a repeat of that should see her go close here.
Roughie: Kristy Lee (Best Odds: $3.70) sat off a fast speed a couple of weeks and hit the line strongly, but was no match for Cradle Me, who came down the outside with a withering turn of speed. She should get a fast speed again and power home with normal luck.
$250 Urgent Bells Free Bet
Race Eight (16:30) : Octagonal Handicap 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Putting the rejuvenated galloper Tromso (Best Odds: $8.50) on top. He has really found a new lease on his racing life being ridden closer to the speed. Once upon a time, you couldn’t touch him in a race and had to save him for the straight, but as he has gotten older, he has gotten more dour and needs to be ridden closer. And it paid off last start with a strong all the way win. I can’t see much speed here, so if left alone, he will take some beating.
Big Danger: Haussmann (Best Odds: $5.50) arguably should have won last start at Scone when racing deep all the way then racing at tight quarters with the eventual winner, Mighty Lucky. That was his second run from a break and he generally doesn’t perform second up, so that tells me he is ticking over very nicely and should prove hard to beat.
Roughie: Keep an eye on Hoylonny (Best Odds: $19.00), who is first up here. He will be better suited over further, but I didn’t mind the way he trialled recently and could run a decent fresh with the right trip.
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BEST BET: Race Six Numbe 1 Full Of Spirit
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 10 Blackboard Special
VALUE: Race Seven Number 12 Urgent Bells
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 4
Leg Two: 1
Leg Three: 2, 3, 7, 8, 12
Leg Four: 4, 5, 6, 10, 14
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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