Racing.com Park will stage its first ever standalone Saturday program this weekend where it is Pakenham Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (13:00) : O’Conner Handicap (70) 1000m:
Back Me: Wasn’t sure that 1 Wise Hero (Bet Now: $1.65) would be on the seven day back up, but he is, and with that being the case, he should just bolt in. Brilliant win last Saturday at the Valley where he sat outside a genuine tempo and despite being under some pressure on the turn, he responded and put the field away with a fair amount of ease. This race has less depth, so all things being equal, he should win again.
Big Danger: 8 Divertente (Bet Now: $9.00) took her time to break the maiden tag but she done that impressively two back at Ballarat before going to Sandown where she had support at longer odds and led all the way despite looking like a beaten horse several times down the straight. She’ll lead these comfortably from the gate and will be in it for a long way.
Long Shot: 7 Segovia (Bet Now: $15.00) is a handy youngster that resumes for the Griffiths yard. He had several runs during the Spring and ended the prep with a maiden win on the Pakenham Synthetic and there have been a couple of winners to come out of that maiden behind him. Comes here with no trials, but you always have to respect the stable this time of year.
Race Two (13:35) : Sportsbet Racing Form Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Gallant Harmony (Bet Now: $2.90) looks the one to beat here. He led all the way on Ballarat Cup Day a fortnight back and did everything right, jumping well to lead, comfortably, then showed a lovely turn of foot when asked by Mick Dee and won impressively. He’ll lead these again, and though rising a bit in depth, he is only carrying 52kg after the claim.
Big Danger: 4 Exclusive Lass (Bet Now: $5.50) contested several blacktype events before stepping out in a 955m race at the Valley where she got a long way back in the run and closed off her race strongly behind the nippy front runner Sirbible. Back up to 1200m and onto a bigger track are a couple of huge ticks and the form around her from the Spring just reads so well for this.
Long Shot: 2 It Is Written (Bet Now: $11.00) was due to race last weekend at the Valley but instead was saved and runs here after racing over 1200m at Ballarat a fortnight back where he sat back in the ruck and as we know, those out the back that day had no hope so forget he went around behind Gallant Harmony. 1200m is about as far as he wants it, especially on the spacious track like Pakenham, but he has class.
Race Three (14:10) : Viatek Handicap (78) 1000m:
Back Me: 1 Big Reel (Bet Now: $4.50) had solid market support when racing over the 955m at the Valley a couple of Friday nights back where he sat last in the run before Lane eased him to the outside on the turn and gee he let down with a booming finish to get the job done. Looks well in at the weights after the claim, getting fitter and will be strong late again with a likely genuine tempo.
Big Danger: 3 Angry Gee (Bet Now: $6.00) is a nippy customer that is first up for Jerome Hunter. Was very consistent last time in with his worst effort being a fourth in a hot city race at Morphettville. Flies fresh and looks spot on to keep up that trend based on a trial win at Cranbourne last Monday. He can carve over from the wide gate and be in it for a long way. If anything, perhaps the final 50m may test.
Long Shot: 13 Tango Rock (Bet Now: $3.80)is the clear watch horse. We know the talent he has but he just hasn’t been able to put it together properly on race day and his record backs that up, with two wins from seven but he has contested some quality races. He hasn’t raced since finishing down the track in the Creswick behind Lord Von Costa but the form out of that has held up really well. Definite market watch.
Race Four (14:45) : Momentum Gaming Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: 9 Maternal (Bet Now: $6.00) is a mare who will have a life as a broodmare post racing given her breeding and while her racing deeds probably won’t match her mum, Divine Madonna, she is handy herself. She ran over the mile at Sandown last time out and chased hard all the way but was no match for the impressive Domino Vitale. The slow tempo that afternoon was clearly against her but the run was more than satisfactory. Really good record here and she rates highly for me.
Big Danger: 5 Cheeky Babe (Bet Now: $3.40) was an impressive winner two back at the Valley over Entrancing before that mare turned the tables on her a fortnight back at Ballarat where she controlled the race from the front and really, Cheeky Babe had no hope the way the track played. With an even surface here, she should get the run of the race and looms as one of the hardest to beat.
Long Shot: 6 Violent Snow (Bet Now: $14.00) was given a plum steer from Lane to win over 1500m at the Valley before racing over 1700m at Flemington on Oaks Day where she got back and just stayed there in a leader dominated event, won by Mihany. Has since trialled at Cranbourne and looked to go about her business quite nicely to tune up for this assignment. Big chance on her best form.
Race Five (15:25) : Wise Choice Catering Handicap (70) 1400m:
Back Me: 3 Fuse (Bet Now: $6.50) looked to jump out well prior to resuming in a maiden on Kilmore Cup Day where he sat off a genuine tempo before Jake Noonan eased him to the outside and gee he let down hard over the final 150m to win handsomely and with a touch of class and authority. The time compared well with the two 1200m races later in the day knowing that this horse has upside. Ticks the boxes for me.
Big Danger: 6 Snitzson (Bet Now: $7.00) was backed as if unbeatable when resuming at Cranbourne and aided by a lovely steer from Andrew Mallyon, he charged late and got the win, and is another that ran fast time in comparison to other races over the same trip for the meeting. He looked to trial really well prior and the fresh effort confirms he has come back in super order.
Long Shot: 12 Nine Clouds (Bet Now: $41.00) was far from disgraced two back at Moe behind the potential star that is Wise Hero before going to the 1400m at Ballarat where he sat off speed before presenting at the top of the straight and he careered away to score a dominant maiden triumph. More depth here, but he has the Wise Hero form and that’s a big tick here for me.
Race Six (16:00) : Schweppes David Bourke Memorial Handicap 1600m:
Back Me: Taking a chance on 3 Goldstream (Bet Now: $10.00). High class galloper who won the Italian Derby before being sent to Kris Lees where he failed to fire in three runs. He did look to trial well at Wyong in early September before being sent to Weir and we know the record the great man has with tried horses, especially those from overseas. If he brings his A-game, he’ll smash these.
Big Danger: 2 Mihany (Bet Now: $2.30) had speed favours when racing over 1700m at Flemington on Oaks Day and rightfully bolted up before going to the Kilmore Cup (1600m) where he did a power of work on speed yet fought on pretty well to be only beat five lengths by Hazzabeel. I doubt he will cop as much pressure here, and we know if he gets a cheap sectional, he’ll make you pay.
Long Shot: 6 Loophole (Bet Now: $6.00) is the interesting runner. Chris Waller trained stayer that resumes here off the back of a couple of sharp trials in Sydney and I wouldn’t have minded having something each way on him if he resumed there, but the stable has sent him to the Flemington base, and Waller does have a great record with the stable switch, especially older horses to liven them up. Market watch.
Race Seven (16:40) : Superior Food Services Pakenham Cup 2500m:
Back Me: 8 Cinnamon Carter (Bet Now: $13.00) is a mare racing in career best form for Robbie Laing and has to go in as one of the key contenders. She was far from disgraced in the Matriarch behind Jessy Belle before racing over the 2500m at the Valley where she was given a 12/10 from Jake Bayliss, saving ground near the inside before peeling clear and she savaged the line to win in the final stride. She loves Pakenham, albeit Synthetic, but she’s hard fit, in form and will stay the trip right out, plus she has a turn of foot.
Big Danger: 1 Puccini (Bet Now: $12.00) was one of the real eye catchers from the Ballarat Cup (2200m). He got back to near last in the run and made up a stack of ground despite being asked to carry 58kg to be only beaten four lengths by tearaway winner Pilote D’Essai. This distance looks right up his alley and he looks to be enjoying life under the care of Wayne Walters. I’ll be shocked if he isn’t in the finish.
Long Shot: 5 Lord Van Percy (Bet Now: $7.00) also comes through the Ballarat Cup (2200m) and his effort in defeat was tidy but like most at the back in that race and for the afternoon, he had no chance at all yet still made ground, though beaten a long way. The run prior in the Eclipse was a real eye catcher and I think he can be a big improver here.
Race Eight (17:20) : Racing.com VOBIS Gold Bullion 1400m:
Back Me: 5 Lucky Liberty (Bet Now: $4.00) does look well placed here to win. He didn’t handle the bog track at all on Sale Cup Day yet got the job done before going to the 1400m at Flemington and chasing hard nearer the inside, which wasn’t the spot to be when running a game third to Lord Aspen. Isn’t badly in at the weights and the big tick for him is that he is a proven weight carrier.
Big Danger: 1 Burning Front (Bet Now: $11.00) won this race last year and looks hardened enough to defend the title after a strong sixth in the Kevin Heffernan (1300m) at Sandown behind stablemate and multiple Group l winner Lucky Hussler. For a 100 rater, he is just so well in at the weights, he has upside and that effort at Sandown should really toughen him up for this assignment.
Long Shot: 2 Rough Justice (Bet Now: $6.50) was game in defeat two back at the Valley behind Sir Bacchus in a race that has produced subsequent Stakes winner Redkirk Warrior before going to the Flemington 1400m where he attempted to lead all the way but had to settle for second to Lord Aspen. He’ll get on speed favours here and take some beating.
Race Nine (17:55) : Stabil-Lime Group Handicap (78) 2000m:
Back Me: 17 Quedoutes (Bet Now: $28.00) for me at a price. He ran over the mile on Ballarat Cup Day and despite a severe bias towards those near the speed, he worked home with real purpose from the back to run fourth to Dollar For Dollar. He will love the rise to 2000m here, draws well again and is beautifully in at the weights with the claim for McNeil.
Big Danger: 8 Gallic Chieftain (Bet Now: $4.50) was having his second run in Australia when racing over 1800m at Sandown last time out where he made up a stack of ground from the back to run a close up fourth to Encosta Line, who ran well without much luck last week. Third up at 2000m with upside on a big track with C Williams riding…ticks alot of boxes.
Long Shot: 14 Hardern (Bet Now: $8.50) produced an indifferent run under the lights of the Valley a couple of Friday nights back when under pressure before the turn and looked as if he was going to run last, but he picked up late behind Get The Picture. Big track will really suit and with a big thing like him, the vigour of Noel Callow is a big tick, and he is the form rider in Victoria at the moment.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 5 Lucky Liberty
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Wise Hero
VALUE: Race Nine Number 17 Quedoutes
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6
Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 6, 8
Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 8
Leg Four: 2, 5, 8, 9, 13, 14, 17
$50 Investment= 7.14% of the dividend if successful
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