It’s the race that stops the nation- the Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m), and the great race highlights day two of the Flemington Carnival this Tuesday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail position will be determined after Derby Day on Saturday.
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Race One: Emirates Airline Plate 1000m:
Back Me: Missrock (Best Odds: $3.60) produced a brilliant finishing burst at her first start to win the Debutant at Caulfield, sitting last in the run before swooping late. Ridden cold again and she looks the winner.
Big Danger: Concealer (Best Odds: $19.00) is a first starter for Tony McEvoy who comes to Melbourne from Adelaide after a couple of sharp trial efforts, the latest being a Murray Bridge win. Always respect the stable when they come over.
Roughie: Bangs (Best Odds: $26.00) was one of the best runs of the beaten brigade in the Inglis Banner on Cox Plate Day she got banged up big time in the run yet still had the audacity to finish the race of well. She looks the overs at $21.
Quinella: 1/2/4/6
Trifecta: Keen on the toppie, so I’ll go 1/2-4-6/2-4-6
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Race Two: Tab.com.au Trophy 1700m:
Back Me: Zarzali (Best Odds: $2.05) was a real eye catcher in the Angst at Randwick, making up a stack of ground from the back to run third to the impressive winner Casino Dancer. I would have thought her GF would be the Matriarch, but nonetheless, she looks so well placed here.
Big Danger: Lily Dazzler (Best Odds: $8.00) started bolters odds when running the Blazer (1400m) and she ran well without luck behind La Passe, who won the Tristarc at her next start to frank the form. She runs well at Flemington and loses nothing with McDonald riding.
Roughie: Cathy’s Mark (Best Odds: $10.00) was wide throughout in the Blazer, so she can be forgiven for her failure there. She then went to the provincials at Ballarat and proved too good for an average lot, but now her confidence is back up, she could go on with it.
Quinella: 2/3,6,7
Trifecta: 2/3-6-7/3-6-7
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Race Three: J.B. Cummings AM Tribute (96) 2800m:
Back Me: Annus Mirabilis (Best Odds: $9.50) was excellent I thought last time out over 2400m at Geelong when grinding away strongly to run fourth to Zanteca. He has no gears, but he will love the Flemington 2800m and will be strong late.
Big Danger: De Little Engine (Best Odds: $6.50) hasn’t been too bad this time in. He got too far back in the Geelong Cup last time out but worked home okay late behind Almoonqith. Returns to Flemington, where he saves his best for, and has performed well at this track/distance before.
Roughie: The step up in trip will suit Spur On Gold (Best Odds: $26.00), who worked home strongly with 59kg last time out at Sale when just missing out on victory. Bigger track will be ideal and Pat Moloney has a fabulous record when steering Pat Carey trained runners.
Quinella: Lottery. Include 7/8/12/15/17/20
Trifecta: Boxing up the numbers above
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Race Four: Lavazza Short Black (90) 1400m:
Back Me: Weinholt (Best Odds: $12.00) was very good to me at odds last time out at Geelong, where he had the perfect run behind the tempo and got the bob in right on the peg. He will get a soft trip from the gate, has upside…$12 looks tremendous overs.
Big Danger: Counter Spin (Best Odds: $15.00) comes to Melbourne in ripping after a strong win last time out at Morphettville Parks, aided by a peach from Lindop. Loses nothing with McEvoy going on board, and if he can midfield cover from the gate, he is a serious winning chance.
Roughie: I’m Ablaze (Best Odds: $34.00) was ridden far too close to the tempo last start at Cranbourne where he sat outside a hot tempo and just folded late when fifth to Prince Rahy, beaten a length. Rises in grade, but Tommy Berry rides, and from the wide gate, expect this horse to get back, and when he is ridden back with cover, he can produce a decent turn of foot.
Quinella: Wide open again. Bet around these 1,5,6,7,8,10,13
Trifecta: Same numbers above boxed up
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Race Five: Schweppes #FlemingtonFling 1000m:
Back Me: American Star (Best Odds: $7.00) is a gelding I am a real fan of. Three starts in Adelaide for Mick Minervini for two wins and a narrow second. The latest win came in a four horse field where he rightfully spanked them. Deserves a crack at a race like this and he looks a definite winning chance.
Big Danger: Faatinah (Best Odds: $10.00) has been given a four week freshen after racing over 1400m here in the Poseidon where he was enormous in running third to One For One after settling near last in a slowly run race. Could have gone down the Guineas path but the stable have decided to freshen him up and he looks very well suited here.
Roughie: Miss Gidget (Best Odds: $15.00) should be forgiven for her failure in the Crockett given she got stuck three wide on speed for the entire trip. Stable has a good record with their runners down the Flemington straight and she can definitely bounce back here.
Quinella: Keen on the 4,6
Trifecta: 4,6/4,6/5,7,9,10
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Race Six: Lexus Hybrid Plate 1400m:
Back Me: I thought there would be value in Raggle Varr (Best Odds: $11.00), but the market has well and truly found her. Not surprising though given she was very dominant in her debut win at Cranbourne where she led and just bolted in, and ran much quicker time than the older horses on the same night. Bowman rides from a good gate and she is one of the hardest to beat.
Big Danger: Tiz My View (Best Odds: $15.00) comes through the Crockett where she didn’t appear to handle the Moonee Valley track at all, but once she balanced up in the straight, she worked home strongly to run fifth. Flemington suits her perfectly and is right in this.
Roughie: Irada (Best Odds: $10.00) worked home well without much luck in the Thoroughbred Club when held up between runners early on in the straight before getting clear running near the inside and finishing off nicely for fourth. Has a stack of upside and Pumper remains on.
Quinella: Boxing up 3/4/5/8/10/12/16
Trifecta: Boxing up numbers above
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Field: View the 2015 Melbourne Cup Field
Info: View the latest news on the Melbourne Cup 2015
Race Seven: Emirates Melbourne Cup 3200m:
Back Me: Really warming to Hartnell (Best Odds: $34.00). He is the local with the most amount of upside in this race, and I thought he was the best run of the beaten brigade in the Cox Plate (2040m) behind Winx. Got back and wide, which meant you had no hope, but I thought he was pretty good through the line. He will eat up the two miles, bigger track, loves some give in the track and as I said, he is the one with upside.
Big Danger: Fame Game (Best Odds: $4.60) was the obvious blackbooker from the Caulfield Cup (2040m). Zac Purton shows more vigour in Happy Valley barrier trials, but that aside, the run was a beauty. Had the track been bone dry, he’d be clearly on top. Little query with rain about, but he is the best stayer in the race by a fair margin.
Roughie: Bondi Beach (Best Odds: $21.00) for mine is the pick of the International runners that are yet to race in Australia. Trained by the master in Aidan O’Brien and comes here off the back of some excellent performances in some pretty serious races overseas. From all reports he has settled into Australia nicely and this is the one race that has eluded O’Brien and Coolmore. They’d love to win this, and they have a great hope here.
Quinella: I’ll go thin myself with 3/6/20, but you could include many others.
Trifecta: Boxing up 3/4/6/17/20
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Race Eight: James Boag’s Symphony Stakes 1800m:
Back Me: Malice (Best Odds: $6.50) was excellent in the Crystal Mile given he had to come very wide on a day where it was impossible to make up significant ground away from the inside. He is a dry tracker who can handle a little bit of give, which is what we should get here, he draws well, upside…hard to beat.
Big Danger: Tall Ship (Best Odds: $6.00) is the one with plenty of upside left. He got a long way back in a leader dominated Seymour Cup yet finished off very strongly. Form has been franked with the winner winning the Crystal Mile. Crying out for 1800m and looks a serious threat.
Roughie: Jacquinot Bay (Best Odds: $9.00) was very good in defeat when contesting the Toorak, sitting wide no cover early on yet fought on well behind Lucky Hussler. Loves racing on his home track and will love it if the rain remains.
Quinella: Keen on the 9,11
Trifecta: 9,11/9,11/3,5,6
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Race Nine: M S S Security Sprint 1200m:
Back Me: Looks the perfect race for Griante (Best Odds: $5.50). Quality mare who has taken on the best sprinters in Australia at her last couple of starts. So well weighted here I think and is drawn to get a nice smother and bomb them late. I think she is the best bet on the card.
Big Danger: Kuro (Best Odds: $4.00) has had plenty of luck this time in…none of it has been good. He loomed to be a threat in the Caulfield Sprint but got badly checked by Lumosty and his chances were done and dusted then. Big drop in class and he raced great in the Coolmore last year at this track/distance.
Roughie: Sarajevo (Best Odds: $10.00) was wide and near last in the run when resuming at Caulfield and couldn’t really get into the race behind Fast ‘N’ Rocking, who ran a beauty in the Manikato and did beat home Griante, so on that form line, Sarajevo can beat these. Just depends whether the screws in his head are on properly.
Quinella: Wide race again. 2/3/4/17
Trifecta: Boxing above numbers
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Race Ten: Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: She’s Clean (Best Odds: $8.50) was given a McDonald special to win first up in the Tibbie at Newcastle before being freshened up and running well against the tempo at Randwick. Ran well in this race last year, but appears to be going much better this time around.
Big Danger: Wawail (Best Odds: $3.20) did a stack of work on speed last start at Caulfield but she kept on finding under pressure but was nabbed in the last stride by Politeness. She has a great record at Flemington and third up now, she should be at peak fitness.
Roughie: Sultry Feeling (Best Odds: $13.00) was enormous in the Nivison after getting back near last in the run before peeling wide and finishing off hard late. Bowman jumps back on and should relish the 1400m.
Quinella: Keen on 4,6
Trifecta: 4,6/4,6/9,10,11,12
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BEST BET: Race Nine Number 4 Griante
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Missrock
VALUE: Race Three Number 13 Soviet Courage
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 14, 15, 18, 20, 22
Leg Two: 3, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11
Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 11, 17
Leg Four: 4, 6, 10, 11
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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