With a star studded program at Randwick and the AFL Grand Final, racing in Melbourne takes somewhat of a back seat this Saturday, but nonetheless, eight races are set down to be run and won at Caulfield. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out twelve metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One: The Grand Hotel Frankston Handicap (78) 1200m:
Back Me: Maddie Moo Moo (Best Odds: $11.00) resumed in a pretty thin maiden at Swan Hill and she justified her short quote with a comfortable win over the 975m dash for cash. Prior to that she ran very well in a Stakes race at Morphettville and the feature two year old race during the Warrnambool Carnival. She will be suited by the rise to 1200m and will improve fitness wise.
Big Danger: In A Smile (Best Odds: $7.50) looked sharp at the jump outs here prior to resuming at Cranbourne where she really caught the eye, storming home late to finish second to Tycoon Peri. That was a very good effort against the older horses, and now she drops to her own age and sex, plus is on her home track. She should take some beating.
Roughie: Qatar Bloodstock filly Thurlow (Best Odds: $34.00) has been poor in her two runs this time in, but they have each been behind star filly Petits Filous, who will go around as favourite in the Moir on Friday night. This is the easiest race Thurlow has contested in some time, so if she brings her best form, she’d go very close to beating these.
Race Two: The Cove Hotel Plate (70) 1200m:
Back Me: Looks a two horse race between We’ve Got This (Best Odds: $3.70) and Heza Ripper. I am going to lean towards We’ve Got This. He has threatened to be a Stakes horse for some time, and that was evident during his last prep, with several placings, including a third to Nicoscene in a Group ll during the Adelaide Carnival. He could not have trialled any better on his home track at Cranbourne, he flies fresh…looks very well placed here.
Big Danger: Heza Ripper (Best Odds: $6.50) made his Australian debut at Geelong for the Hayes/Dabernig yard and was given a lovely on speed steer from Michael Walker to win quite impressively. There looks to be enormous upside with him, and he does have the fitness edge on We’ve Got This.
Roughie: Ducal Castle (Best Odds: $9.00) looked sharp at the jump outs here prior to resuming at Cranbourne where he stuck on alright late when a close up sixth to stablemate Liminal. Second up last time in he ran third to potential Group l horse Lord Aspen during Cup Week. Probably would prefer him over a bit more ground, but he is a definite winning chance.
Race Three: Showtime Attractions Handicap (84) 1800m:
Back Me: High Church (Best Odds: $3.00) is a talented import who made his Australian debut for Lloyd Williams at Pakenham and he was desperately unlucky to finish alongside winner Velox, having to settle for third. He needs to win these races in order to be a Cups contender, and this really does look his race to lose based on the first up run, and Velox runs in the JRA Cup on Friday night so you’ll now by race time how strong the form is.
Big Danger: Former Riverina galloper Ring Da Belle (Best Odds: $5.00) made his Melbourne debut for the Hayes/Dabernig yard over 1400m here a couple of weeks back and made up solid ground late when running fifth to stablemate Kayjay’s Joy. She will be suited by the rise in trip, fitter and senior rider goes aboard.
Roughie: Second Bullet (Best Odds: $6.00) resumed at Pakenham and though it was short of his best distance, as well as being first up, he was pretty good late behind the above average galloper Stavia. He ran well second up last time in, and though he bumps into a very promising type, he draws well and his record at Caulfield is tidy.
Race Four: Art Series Hotel Group Plate (84) 1440m:
Back Me: Staviva (Best Odds: $4.20) has won his two starts this time in very nicely, most notably last start at Pakenham when given a lovely steer from Ben Melham. Harder here, but third up, so he should be at peak fitness, Melham sticks and he draws to get every chance.
Big Danger: Kayjay’s Joy (Best Odds: $5.50) was afforded a beaut run from Damien Lane to win narrowly but impressively over this track/distance. Harder here, and drawn wide, but she is in ripping form and she does seem to like racing around the Caulfield track.
Roughie: Sir Berus (Best Odds: $17.00) is the knockout chance at odds. He has been eye catching in each of his three runs this time in, most notably his first two runs. He probably had his chance last time out at Pakenham behind Stavia, but I reckon Pat Moloney will get on Stavia’s back, and he meets Stavia 4kg better for a 3.8L defeat, so he can definitely turn the tables.
Race Five: Rentafence.com.au Plate (70) 1600m:
Back Me: I think Eyrton (Best Odds: $3.40) is the good thing on the program. This former French galloper had one run overseas, resulting in a win over the mile on a bog track. He has had a couple of preps in Australia and is yet to race, but he really caught my attention when he blitzed his rivals in a recent Cranbourne trial, going through the motions under a very good hold from Mark Zahra. He is the most interesting runner all weekend IMO.
Big Danger: Berisha (Best Odds: $3.60) has had a couple of runs now for Robert Smerdon, and the son of Al Samer got the job done for the stable in good style last time out over 1400m at Ballarat, surging home hard from the back in a slowly run race. He will love the rise to the mile and he is trained on the track, along with having upside, and has the fitness edge on the top tip.
Roughie: Talented stayer Spur On Gold (Best Odds: $15.00) really caught the eye when resuming over 1200m at Cranbourne when working home well to finish a close up third to Liminal, beaten just over a length. Quickly up to the mile is a slight query, but he has a very good second up record and second up last time in he ran second to subsequent Group l performer Ungrateful Ellen.
Race Six: Champagne Pommery Handicap (70) 1600m:
Back Me: Spectacular Vision (Best Odds: $11.00) was desperately unlucky when resuming at Pakenham, getting badly held up behind runners and wasn’t really in the clear until it was far too late. Back on her home track now, stable rider on and draws to get the gun run.
Big Danger: Solar Burst (Best Odds: $9.50) ran second in that race mentioned above, finishing alongside Godspiel in a close finish. Solar Burst produced one of the runs of the day from that race given she came out wide from last in a race that was run at a crawl courtesy of Godspiel. With a more genuine tempo here, she can win for sure.
Roughie: The step up in trip should suit the Darren Weir trained Tee ‘N’ Tee (Best Odds: $15.00), who was okay without setting the world on fire last start at Pakenham over 1400m when fifth to Mefnooda. Gate one now, Rawiller on board and last time in, she did take a few runs to find her best form, so on pattern, she should be ready to show her best.
Race Seven: Spotlight Handicap (70) 1000m:
Back Me: Keen here on Liminal (Best Odds: $6.00). He has been excellent in two runs back from a break, starting off with a dominant win on the Pakenham Synthetic before taking care of them impressively at Cranbourne last time out. Back to 1000m is perfect for him because that’s where he has shown his best form. Extremely hard to beat.
Big Danger: Sistonic is a close relation to Black Caviar who did build up a good reputation for herself early on in her career, but the bubble has somewhat burst a bit. She resumed at the Valley and just pulled her head off so forget she went around. Jump outs at Flemington prior were classy and despite the wide gate, she can bounce back here.
Roughie: Secretan had been a little bit frustrating in three runs back from a break, but he bounced back to form in a big way when he led all the way to spank his rivals last time out at Seymour, and ran fast time. Gets some weight relief and 1000m is his pet distance.
Race Eight: Bushnell Outdoor Products Handicap (70) 1200m:
Back Me: Liten Prinsessa (Best Odds: $4.20) looked outstanding in a jump out here prior to running at Mornington where she was smashed in betting and her supporters were left with a smile on their dial when this former kiwi mare charged home from the back to grab victory in the last stride. On her home track now and there should plenty of upside.
Big Danger: Haybah (Best Odds: $7.00) ran quite well last time out in the Atlantic Jewel where she sat on a hot speed and she only felt the pinch late when sixth to Stay With Me, and the form out of that race has been red hot. Drops in depth, and while she takes on the older horses, she should acquit herself quite well in a tricky race.
Roughie: Intravenous (Best Odds: $26.00) continued her solid first up record at Hamilton with another win, despite sitting three and four wide for the entire trip. Plenty of merit in the win, and I don’t think the wide gate will be too much of an issue, because she does race best when ridden with cover, so I am sure Michelle Payne will find that.
BEST BET: Race Five Number 3 Eyrton
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 8 High Church
VALUE: Race Four Number 8 Sir Berus
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 3
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 10, 12, 13
Leg Three: 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13
Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 12, 13, 15
$50 Investment= 5.58% of the dividend if successful.
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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