31/12/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, New Year’s Eve races

Night racing continues at Moonee Valley this Friday night with eight races set down. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

Hopefully end 2021 with a good thing and I do think that 1 Lord Paramount (Bet Now: $2.45) is that. Maher/Eustace trained galloper that returns to racing as a gelding after showing promise in his first prep. Two trials in NSW were solid but I was quite taken by a recent jumpout at Cranbourne. He’s ready to go and should take beating.

7 The Globe (Bet Now: $3.60) is the only threat and for a saver, she’s indeed it. Wide no cover at Geelong last time out over 1100m and battled on pretty well in defeat. Maps to stalk Lord Paramount and get last look with Olly taking the steer. Back to 1000m also a big tick.

8 The Pup (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Mick Kent trained filly that was quite kept safe in betting when debuting at Moe. She had a suck run behind the speed and presented to win but condition just gave out when third in a good effort. Not sure she wins here but a must for exotics.

Peter Moody has an unbelievable strike rate with horses hard in the market and I think that will continue via 2 Daytona Bay (Bet Now: $2.50). Son of American Pharoah that is on debut and I thought he looked quite sharp in a recent Pakenham jumpout win when on speed and cruising to the line. Draws to get a good run in transit and the stable is easy to trust.

3 First Platoon (Bet Now: $4.60) looks to have returned in good order. Danny O’Brien trained galloper that resumed at Kyneton where he got a mile out of his ground but loved the way he found the line late when a narrow second. If he can sit closer in the run, which he can from the better gate, he’ll take beating here I’d suggest.

9 Powerstone (Bet Now: $23.00) is one for wider multiples. This is around a month between runs since contesting a Bairnsdale 58 where she had the suck run behind the speed and battled away okay when third to Commanding Witness. Back in grade, but a fair way up in depth. First four threat.

7 Rising Archie (Bet Now: $6.00) each way here for me. Paul Preusker trained gelding that ran over 2040m here last time out where he just found them a bit sharp but liked the way he finished his race off in a race where the form out of it has been good. Has won at 2600m and with upside to come, 3000m should be fine.

1 Guns Ablazing (Bet Now: $3.80) is a last start winner at this track/distance from two weeks ago and Olly sticks, so he has a bit going for him. It was a peach from Olly to get him home, with great initiative seeing the horse proving quite strong at the end of 3000m, so he’s hard to beat here.

5 Milestone (Bet Now: $9.00) is a one paced type that should have no issue with 3000m. He did work on speed at Moe last time out but liked the way he kept finding under pressure, fending off his rivals to win. Should get a lovely run from the gate and is a definite winning chance.

2 Marcolt (Bet Now: $2.05) is short but I can’t find anything to knock him off. He was very good fresh at Geelong when back near last in the run and working home with real purpose late in the piece to finish second. This is a very weak Class 1 and stable is in form, so he does look the pony to bet on.

8 Race Against Time (Bet Now: $6.00) brings the totally different form, with SA form for the McEvoy camp. Last start saw him finish best, just, over the mile at Morphettville when driving hard late under Vorster to nail them near the peg. This isn’t a strong race so I am giving him respect.

7 Oh So Far (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Mick Kent trained mare that resumes. Hasn’t raced since the Mahogany Final over 2500m during the Winter when far from disgraced in defeat behind Token Spirit. Like that she resumes at the mile, suggesting to me that they’re not completely wasting her first up run, and stable finds Lane to steer.

9 Pitchanun (Bet Now: $2.90) is a hard horse to follow and trust with confidence but I think she’s knocking on the door to win one. Ran over this track/distance last time out where she was badly held up at a crucial stage. Should have finished closer, but doubt she wins when second. If she gets clear air from the outset and an uninterrupted run, she likely wins.

8 Mostly Sunny (Bet Now: $5.00) is an honest mare for Patrick Caboche that is rarely far away. That was the case once again at Flemington two weeks back when just off the speed from the gate and battled on okay behind Brasada. Not sure I could back her to win, but she’ll be around the mark.

2 Just Stellar (Bet Now: $8.50) is a beauty for Chris Davis and if this track is playing on speed/fence, she comes right into play. Big odds when spanking her rivals at this track/distance last time out. She was under pressure a fair way out but she kept finding and on the line, she was safely holding her rivals. She’ll give a bold sight.

1 Lunar Hero (Bet Now: $5.00) looks a great each way bet for mine. He’s a ripper for Dan McCarthy that was very sharp when winning over 1000m at Wangaratta last time out, lumping 64kg but he was the strongest on the line. Gets a 3kg weight pull here and if he can hold up from the gate, he’ll only run well IMO.

3 Kev’s Girl (Bet Now: $2.70) is a very consistent mare that is rarely far away from the action. Three weeks between runs since a strong on speed win at this track/distance where she was there to be run down but found plenty under pressure, kicking hard to hold on. Not sure she’ll lead them up, but she’s genuine.

8 Aminatu (Bet Now: $7.50) could get into a very nasty spot nearer the inside but it was hard not to be impressed by her spank job win at this track/distance four weeks back. She was wide no cover for the trip but trucking and once Zac Spain pushed the button, away she went and she was dominant. If she can reproduce that, she’s in the mix.

16 McKeever (Bet Now: $2.90) for me. Symon Wilde trained gelding that has been kept on ice, having not raced since November 19 at this track/distance when close up and far from disgraced in defeat behind Gloves Are Off. Thought a recent tick over jumpout was a good piece of work, gets Lane to steer and maps super.

8 Black Opal (Bet Now: $7.00) is racing really well at the moment for John Moloney and comes into play with the race decimated by scratchings. Put together a couple of wins on the bounce before a close up third at this track/distance. Should land near the front and run well.

4 Keep On Bopping (Bet Now: $13.00) is a Phillip Stokes trained gelding that resumes. He can be hit and miss but his best is certainly capable. Hasn’t raced since August 8 at Bendigo when producing an end of prep run behind Smoke Bomb. Stable is flying and this horse sprints well fresh. Watch the market.

13 Escadora (Bet Now: $4.60) can resume a winner. Team Freedman trained mare that hasn’t raced since breaking her maiden tag at Geelong back in August when a strong on speed victor in what has turned out to be a red hot maiden. Liked a recent jumpout and though drawn wide, has J Kah.

7 Apres La Mer (Bet Now: $4.80) looks the map horse from the draw. Ran over this track/distance last time out when getting the suck run behind the speed and battling away pretty well in defeat when a close up fourth to a handy horse, Sweet Karolina. Maps super and the depth isn’t as strong now with the scratchings.

9 It’s Classified (Bet Now: $9.50) I can include in wider multiples. Lindsey Smith trained mare that resumed at Warrnambool when on speed and trying hard, but being fresh, her condition just gave way late. Lone career win did come second up and gets Johnny Allen on from a good gate.

BEST BET: Race One Number 1 Lord Paramount

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 2 Marcolt

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 1 Lunar Hero

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 3, 8, 9

Leg Two: 1, 3, 8, 12, 15

Leg Three: 16

Leg Four: 7, 9, 12, 13

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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