The best stand alone Saturday program is at Hawkesbury and it is here this Saturday with a cracking nine race program, with blacktype right across the afternoon. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (11:55) : TAB Highway Plate (Class 3) 1100m:
Back Me: 1 Noble Joey (Best Odds: $3.50) resumed over 1000m at Goulburn a couple of weeks and despite doing a bit wrong in the straight, he was just far too good for his rivals. He ran well in a Highway in the Spring but looks a far better and stronger horse now, and gets the services of James McDonald.
Big Danger: 5 Atom Eve (Best Odds: $2.10) is the unbeaten filly from Canberra for Norm Gardner that resumes here. She strung together two on the bounce to kick off her career before going to a Randwick Highway in January and beat home a couple of handy types. No trials, but she has speed and a bit of toughness about her.
Roughie: 3 Professor Marx (Best Odds: $4.80) was a good thing beaten first up at Muswellbrook given he was three wide no cover for the trip and was only beaten a half length. The key to these Highway races is that if a horse has genuine city form, they more often than not will run well, and this bloke has performed well in town previously.
Race Two (12:30) : Richmond Club Provincial Stayers Final (85) 2100m:
Back Me: If 4 Duca Valentinois (Best Odds: $2.60) runs up to his dominant first up win over the mile at Warwick Farm, he will just spank these. He showed good promise in his first prep in Australia without winning, but as we know with these imports, they improve sharply in their second prep. He has won up to 2012m overseas, upside…just wins I think.
Big Danger: 3 Loving Home (Best Odds: $4.80) ran a plain fifth behind Lord Disick at Randwick before going to the Valley and running a very gallant third to the above average Tucano. Has a bit of upside and Chris Waller is near unbeatable in these type of races, plus a recent trial was quite encouraging.
Roughie: 2 Award Season (Best Odds: $7.50) hasn’t raced since running a game fifth to all the way winner Hippopus in the Canberra Cup (2000m). He has since trialled at Newcastle and looked very good I thought behind His Majesty, who ran well in both the Provincial Final and then last weekend. He has the fresh legs and will be strong late.
Race Three (13:05) : Blakes Marine Claret Stakes 1300m:
Back Me: 1 Radcliffe (Best Odds: $2.30) didn’t get much luck first up at Kembla Grange before going to Warwick Farm and letting down powerfully out wide to win impressively and he really attacked the line, so the extra 100m and the bigger track will suit this son of Lonhro and he just has enormous upside.
Big Danger: 2 Ajani (Best Odds: $4.60) resumed at Canterbury last Wednesday and closed off alright late in the piece when running third to Purrari in a race that was dominated by those near the tempo. His two runs prior have some really good form lines around him, including Souchez and Scarlet Rain. The Snowdens love to target this day and this colt looks above average.
Roughie: 8 Lubiton (Best Odds: $9.00) debuted at Beaumont-Newcastle a couple of weeks back where she sat on speed and kicked on strongly when challenged to win and win in gritty and determined fashion. Time was similar to that of the well performed Prompt Response on the same program, so I’ll respect that and the stabie is low flying at the moment.
Race Four (13:40) : Hawkesbury XXXX Gold Rush 1100m:
Back Me: 7 Furnaces (Best Odds: $4.20) has been kept fresh and avoided the Carnival after a plain first up effort in the Fireball (1100m) behind Redzel. Has trialled twice since and does have the fresh legs. Takes on the older horses here, but he has class and will take a power of beating on his best form.
Big Danger: 3 Coolring (Best Odds: $5.00) was enormous in defeat last time out in the Weetwood (1200m) at Toowoomba given he copped serious pressure on speed and was bloused late by a swooper. Back to 1100m and back to Sydney is ideal for him, he’s hard fit and will be strong late.
Roughie: 2 Alberto Magic (Best Odds: $7.50) was impressive first up in the Maurice McCarten before being quite disappointing in the Star Kingdom behind Malaguerra. The form out of that race has held up well and the key to this horse is getting back onto a track with give in it, so he is the sharp improver here I think.
Race Five (14:15) : Lander Toyota Ladies Day Cup (85) 1300m:
Back Me: 3 Rock Forthe Ladies (Best Odds: $4.60) had his first run for Bjorn Baker over 1200m at Randwick a couple of weeks back and worked home strongly out wide behind Ammirata in ground that probably wasn’t the spot to be. His best form is over further, but the extra 100m from last start will suit, stable is flying and he will do no work from the soft gate.
Big Danger: 2 Mohave (Best Odds: $26.00) was completely unwanted in betting when resuming in that Ammirata race and the market was spot as the horse faded out of it to finish near last. He obviously needed the run and the claim for the talented Riverina apprentice Nick Heywood is a big tick.
Roughie: 9 Grande Punto (Best Odds: $67.00) has been given a five week freshen up since finishing last behind in form galloper Tan Tat Diamond at Doomben. He has been freshened up, and he is a handy horse on his day, and the stable is going really well, so check the market and see if there is a push.
Race Six (14:55) : 2016 Godolphin Crown 1300m:
Back Me: Godolphin love to target this race with a mare on the up and they have elected to go with just the one runner, 14 Fitou (Best Odds: $6.00), who I thought was very good first up at at Warwick Farm when working home strongly to run fifth to Trafalgar, beaten just over a length. Can only see upside with her and she will be strong late.
Big Danger: 6 Ammirata (Best Odds: $8.50) is an absolute beauty for Joe Pride who resumed in fantastic order with a strong and determined win over 1200m at Randwick a fortnight back in a race where the depth looks very good. She has just been a revelation in recent times and is on a steep upward spiral, so no reason why she can’t continue the picket fence.
Roughie: 7 Cradle Me (Best Odds: $9.00) is a very good mare who comes here off the back of a fast finishing fourth to Two Blue in the Sapphire (1200m) where that mare just dominated from the front and gave nothing else a chance, but this mare was very good late. Just a little query at 1300m, but I think she will handle it and she does look well weighted off that.
Race Seven (15:35) : Panthers Hawkesbury Gold Cup 1600m:
Back Me: 5 Strawberry Boy (Best Odds: $4.60) resumed over 1400m at Randwick a couple of weeks back where he lumped 60kg and looked home but was nabbed in the last couple of strides by Religify and then Mighty Lucky. He meets the winner 0.5kg worse off here, but he maps very well, fitter and gets the senior rider aboard now.
Big Danger: 2 Mighty Lucky (Best Odds: $7.50) wasn’t really wanted in betting first up at Randwick but gee he was impressive, especially with the 61.5kg on his back. He will only improve off that here, up to the mile suits and third up last time in he placed behind Group l mare Zanbagh. Definite winning chance for mine.
Roughie: 9 Casino Dancer Best Odds: $21.00) comes through the JRA Plate (2000m) where she didn’t pull up 100% after finishing sixth to impressive winner Guardini. Back to the mile is perfect and looks as though she will get nice three wide cover, and for mine looks overs at $21.
Race Eight (16:15) : Blacktown Workers Hawkesbury Guineas 1400m:
Back Me: 2 Handfast (Best Odds: $2.35) looks the way to go here. He could not have been more impressive in winning the South Pacific Classic (1400m) last time out at Randwick, showing an electric turn of foot when presented by James McDonald. Similar field here, has upside and the stable love this race day, so he should be wound up.
Big Danger: 10 Denmagic (Best Odds: $6.50) also comes through the Carr (1400m) given she was back in the run and the race was suited for those near the tempo, so her effort to finish just over a length away was full of merit. She has threatened to win a race of this nature for a few runs now, but hasn’t lived up to it, so there is only so many times you can tease. But she is a threat for sure.
Roughie: 3 No More Tears (Best Odds: $7.00) is a very good kiwi filly for Stephen Marsh who was dreadful in the Sapphire before backing up seven days later and running a game third to Yattarna in the Carr (1400m). A tough 1400m is exactly what she is looking for IMO, and any give in the track will be right up her alley, plus she has some class on her side.
Race Nine (16:50) : Fishboys Seafood Handicap (77) 1500m:
Back Me: 9 Trafalgar (Best Odds: $4.00) looks the bet of the day and is my early pick for the Queensland Derby. He was just unbelievable first up at Warwick Farm, aided by a Bowman special, but the way he just savaged the line was outstanding. Form out of that race through In A Wink, Rockalicious and Painte has held up nicely, he has enormous upside and will eat up the bigger track and extra distance.
Big Danger: 14 Mackintosh (Best Odds: $5.50) creates good interest. This former kiwi ran in the Randwick Guineas (1600m) and finished down the track behind Le Romain after sitting wide no cover on speed. Now with Chris Waller and comes here with no trials, which is very unlike Chris Waller runners, but he has class and Avdulla rides.
Roughie: 3 Olympic Academy (Best Odds: $21.00) resumed at Taree a couple of weeks ago and it was just a barrier trial it seemed, sitting back in the run before peeling out and running to the line very strongly. Comes here second up, stable flying and he gets the services of Blake Shinn, and he draws to get every chance. He is a great knockout hope in the get out stakes.
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 9 Trafalgar
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 5 Strawberry Boy
VALUE: Race Six Number 14 Fitou
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 6, 7, 8, 9, 14
Leg Two: 2, 5, 6, 7, 9, 15
Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 7, 10
Leg Four: 2, 3, 6, 9, 10, 14
$50 Investment= 4.62% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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