Caulfield is where Melbourne racing takes place on Saturday afternoon, and it appears to be a very tough one for punters, with big fields with an even level of depth. Hopefully the work has been done correctly for you down below!
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Race One: Flemington Equine Clinic Plate 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: In these early two year old races, the best guide is the betting, and there has been an unbelievable plunge on My Lucky Strike, who has been $19 into $6. No trial, no public appearance, but I’m happy to jump on the bandwagon.
Big Danger: Orujo has been sent to Melbourne to dodge the Sydney youngsters who have dominated. Trialled nicely at Warwick Farm and seemingly strikes a winnable race.
Roughie: Trailofdestruction is another who has been well backed to win, firming from $31 into about the $15 mark. Bred to swim, and the forecast is for showers. Keen an eye on her.
$250 My Lucky Strike Free Bet
Race Two: Lee Thomas Gift Handicap (78) 1700m Form Guide
Back Me: Putting Girl In Flight on top. Her two wins from as many starts have been quite impressive, in particular at Sale where she did plenty wrong yet won comfortably. She is the horse to beat, but $1.90 is rock bottom odds.
Big Danger: Cottonwood Grove led and blew them away in a handy maiden race at Traralgon. She has been scratched from Friday night at the Valley in preference for this harder race, so there must be confidence with the stable.
Roughie: Pageant has also been scratched from the Valley for this race. Form doesn’t read as well as Cottonwood Grove, and is still a maiden, but she should relish the trip and Oliver sticks.
$250 Girl In Flight Free Bet
Race Three: CRV Hospital Helping Hand Handicap (78) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Looking for value and have come up with I’m Ready For This for the Ledger camp. He should have bolted in first up at Seymour, then was outpaced at Wangaratta and savaged the line late against the older horses. The small field will ensure he isn’t far away from the pace, and if he has held his form, I’m confident he can figure in the finish.
Big Danger: By The Grace was very good at Sale behind Girl In Flight, who had a charmed run off the pace and pounced. This gelding sat last in a race dominated by those near the speed, and he still ran on nicely at the end. If he can sit closer from the good draw, he’ll prove hard to beat.
Roughie: Gracious Prospect finally put it all together and got a much deserved maiden win last start at Geelong despite having no favours in the run. That could be the confidence he duly needs to go on with it now.
$250 I’m Ready For This Free Bet
Race Four: The CFV Great Strides Handicap 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Best bet across Australia on Saturday in the shape of The New Boy. He needed the run first up on Seymour Cup Day, then had to drag the field up to the leader in a race on Cup Day and eventually took care of it before being swamped late and finished third. Here, he should get the perfect run outside Loot ‘N’ Run, take care of him on the turn, and kick hard to win under Oliver.
Big Danger: I concede that Disciple will be hard to beat here. He was excellent first up, coming from near last to finish fourth at caulfield, a track which suited leaders that day, before running a game fourth on Stakes Day behind Longport. Should get a beaut run from the draw, and has the Waller polish. Only query is that $3.20 is short.
Roughie: We liked Academy Jack on Sunday at Ballarat, but he was pretty poor in a much weaker race than this. I’ll give him another chance on a firmer surface and back on a track which he excels on.
$250 The New Boy Free Bet
Race Five: Carpet Call Handicap (90) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Putting Lady Of Harrods on top. She had really struggled for form until last start where she ran a much improved race, finishing fifth behind Mahisara in the Sandown Stakes at this track/distance. Lead looks hers again, tumbles in depth, and remember, this time last year she beat subsequent Thousand Guineas winner Commanding Jewel.
Big Danger: Flying Hostess looks the big overs in the race for me. She worked home very strongly last week at the Valley when a close up second. The only time she has run at 1400m, she was at the end of her campaign and carried 57kg in a slick race. Tumbles down to 51kg here, has upside and is quite adaptable on all surfaces.
Roughie: Counted worked home nicely on Cup Day behind Chile Express after settling last in the run. Drops big time in class, drawn well, and races well at the track.
$250 Lady Of Harrods Free Bet
Race Six: East Malvern Bank Handicap (90) 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Not keen at all to have a bet in this race. If I was going to have a bet, I’d have something each way on Cascabel. Both of his runs this time have been very good, running third here first up behind Complicate, then ran a strong fifth on Cup Day to Richie’s Vibe. He drops in class, returns to his favourite track, and the stable is in form.
Big Danger: Flamberge is first up here from a good break. Last time in he was far from disgraced against some quality animals, including Lankan Roupee, Angelic Light and subsequent Group 1 winner Shamexpress. If he slots in from the wide barrier, or at least gets some cover, he is the one.
Roughie: It might have only been a thin race at Adelaide, but Jayconi was quite impressive, make no mistake about that. He races very well second up, handles all conditions, and should slide across and find a spot on the speed. Definite threat.
$250 Cascabel Free Bet
Race Seven: CFV Ambassadors Handicap (96) 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Twilighting hasn’t won since god knows when, but she has been racing quite well of late in much tougher company than this. She made up nice ground last start here in the Summond behind Group 1 performer Floria. 2000m suits and is only 1kg over the minimum after the claims. $26 is juicy, but expect her to drift out as the day progresses.
Big Danger: Nothing wrong with the form of Post D’France, who was a top winner on Stakes Day under the guidance of apprentice Patrick Moloney. Baster is back aboard now, he is drawn well, should press forward and give plenty of cheek.
Roughie: Adjuster wasn’t too bad in the Eclipse behind Mouro. He came off the bit a fair way from home due to the eventual winner pulling his head off and pouring on the pressure in front, but he stuck to the task gamely there, and should be aided by the step up to 2000m and a drop in class.
$250 Twilighting Free Bet
Race Eight: Ballymore Stables Handicap (84) 1700m Form Guide
Back Me: Value certainly lies with Harveys True Heart at around the $10 mark. Didn’t mind his run last start at the Valley behind London Stripe where he was forced to come the widest on the home turn. He is finally relaxing in his races, so the 2000m won’t be an issue for him, and from the barrier, he’ll go back again and look to overhaul them late.
Big Danger: Backstedt was excellent in winning on Oaks Day, aided by a great ride from Chad Schofield. David Hayes has stated that this horse is the next Whisper Downs, so expect a tough and gritty and honest performance from this bloke.
Roughie: Paige’s Boy was disappointing in the race that Backstedt won, but was still only 3 lengths away from him on the line. Prepared to forgive him for that flop and give him another chance here.
$250 Harveys True Heart Free Bet
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Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 5, 6, 7, 11, 12, 13
Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13
Leg Three: 6, 8, 10, 13
Leg Four: 5, 12
$50 Investment=12.75% of the dividend if successful.
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