The iconic Warrnambool Carnival gets underway this Tuesday where it is Brierly Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:20) George Taylor Memorial Maiden Hurdle 3200m
I find with these maiden hurdles, you gravitate to the best flat horse and for me, the best flat horse is clearly 1 Andrea Mantegna (Bet Now: $3.30). He makes his jumps debut for Archie Alexander where he has run well at either metro level or decent Country Cups, where his rating means he has to carry decent weight and I think these days he just doesn’t have the speed in the legs. Now reverting to jumps racing and his trial here on Wednesday behind Goodwood Zodiac was very good from what I saw.
There’s been good early support for 3 Double Bluff (Bet Now: $2.60) and understandably so given the way he has trialled over the hurdles this time in. The flat form has been average, but the trials have been impressive and Pateman rides him, which is a good lead because I’m sure he could have had the choice of a couple of others. Runs up to his trials, he goes close.
One of the impressive triallers from Wednesday here was 9 The Willybe (Bet Now: $21.00). Purchased for jumping purposes and makes his debut for the Eric Musgrove team. Last ran came in the Kerang Cup when on speed and battling away well in defeat behind A Moving Place. Loved his trial behind Guardini, he jumped cleanly, looked to travel well…plenty to like and in the right stable.
Race 2. (12:00) SL Distributors Maiden Hurdle 3200m
Happy to speck 2 Cheners (Bet Now: $27.00) each way. Formerly with Sue Jaensch, he’s had a few runs now for the Eric Musgrove stable and looks to be ticking over beautifully for his jumps debut. Just found them too nippy last time at Kerang but wasn’t too bad in defeat in a 58. Liked the way he moved in his trial here on Wednesday and Martin Kelly, a stable rider, chooses him.
The WaterBott stable produced Goodwood Zodiac on debut over the jumps at Pakenham and made quite the impression so 8 Social Element (Bet Now: $4.20) is an interesting runner. He’s first up after a mixed staying campaign in Sydney during the Summer where he was on speed most occasions and couldn’t finish it off. Did a bit wrong over a couple of jumps here on Wednesday, but the flat speed was evident. Interesting to see how he goes.
1 Beyond Thankful (Bet Now: $5.00) is an Eric Musgrove trained jumper who has had a few cracks to break the maiden status over the hurdles but he is racing in honest fashion at the moment. Last ran came last Monday at Oakbank when settling last in the run but looking to travel well, but was just no match for the class of Mr One Eleven. Has run well here before, he’s honest…could I back him to win? No, but one for multiples.
Race 3. (12:40) Shojun Concrete Maiden Hurdle 3200m
Pretty keen here on the Simon Ryan trained 9 Super Haze (Bet Now: $5.50). His jumps debut came at Hamilton two back when beaten narrowly by Mr One Eleven, where a bad last jump cost him the win. He then went to the Terang Cup and was very good in defeat behind Pelonomena. Back to the hurdles, blinkers off, and he trialled up really well behind Aloft here on Wednesday. Keen on his chances.
3 Euroman (Bet Now: $4.80) makes his long awaited jumps debut. Had a stack of trials over the hurdles when trained by Darren Weir but didn’t race over them. Now with the Maher/Eustace team, he makes his debut and while his flat form is just fair, I did like his trial here on Wednesday behind Goodwood Zodiac, which followed a spanking win at Cranbourne. Interesting that Pateman jumps off to ride Aloft.
Nick Smart is no stranger to success at the Bool so giving respect to 7 October Date (Bet Now: $9.50). He has finished fourth at his past two starts, both over hurdles. First run came at Terang when on speed and tiring behind Startierra before going to Oakbank where he was no match for Killarney Kid. Has trialled like a star over the jumps but yet to translate it to race day.
Race 4. (13:15) Simons Waterfront Maiden Plate 1200m
Always hard to say there’s a good thing during this Carnival but I reckon 10 Lord Of The Turf (Bet Now: $2.25) is the good thing on this program. Aaron Purcell trains this son of Animal Kingdom, who has been really good in two career runs to date. Debuted with an eye catching fourth over 1100m here in a strong form race won by Laoban Tai Tai before being freshened up and going to Hamilton where he looked home but was bloused on the line by Battle Master, who ran well at Caufield next start. Blinkers on now, can sit three wide with cover, home track…just wins I feel.
18 Make It Count (Bet Now:$6.00) is an interesting runner. The Busuttin/Young stable trains this bloke, who returns as a gelding after debuting at Donald back in June last year when down the track. Trialled at Cranbourne last week and looked pretty good there and is another on the meeting that has had early interest, and stable is really going well with Jamie Kah at the moment.
3 Lealta (Bet Now:$20.00) probably has the best maiden form going around but he’s had a few chances to break the maiden tag. Last run came at Pakenham when back in a slowly run affair and couldn’t come on at all behind Caorunn City. I think back to 1200m will suit him, can sit closer in the run from the good draw and the big tick is that the stable finds Pike to ride.
Race 5. (13:45) VOBIS Gold Strike 1000m
Really like the look of 14 Piccadilly Street (Bet Now: $3.50) and confident she runs well. Debuts for Symon Wilde and looked very good in an April 8 jumpout at Camperdown when leading all the way and doing it under a good hold. Winkers on for the debut, so clear intent, soft gate for an in form Damien Thornton on the home track, she’ll do me and $5.50/thereabouts is acceptable.
8 Electrolytic (Bet Now: $6.00) is a daughter of Written Tycoon on debut for the Hayes/Dabernig team. This girl had a jumpout on a couple of weeks back at Flemington where she was wide on speed throughout but looked to go about her business quite nicely when running second, albeit in slow time. Gets gate one and has showed gate speed in previous jumpouts, and Jamie Kah sticks from the recent jumpout.
4 Lil’ Angel (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Tony McEvoy trained filly who was kept very safe in betting when debuting at Caulfield and while on face value she was disappointing behind Meuse, she was green most of the way, very new to the caper, and did cast a plate in the run so a few excuses. That form reads well for this and if she runs up to her trials, she’s clearly in the mix.
Race 6. (14:20) Brierly Steeplechase 3450m
I think the $7.50 opening price was overs for the Patrick Ryan Jnr trained 4 I’ll’ava’half (Bet Now: $6.50). I think there’s real intent with this horse based on what I’ve seen at the trials. Latest one was on Wednesday where he was given a really good hit out in winning by 25 lengths and what I liked is that he was near faultless over the jumps, a good sign because at times he can be hit and miss. He’ll do me at the price because he looks wound up and is proven here.
1 Gold Medals (Bet Now: $3.30) is the defending champ of both the Brierly and Grand Annual and repeating the dose in 2019 would see him reach legendary status at the Bool. Thought his Terang Cup run was very good and the tick over trial here on Wednesday was pleasing. Is it chips in for the Grand Annual? Hasn’t really had that much of a grounding, but has class/quality.
Always have to respect John Wheeler when he comes here and that’s why you can’t ignore 8 Macklemore (Bet Now: $9.00). His jumps form in NZ doesn’t read great, but his recent efforts on the flat over there have been quite good, the latest being a close up fourth over 2500m at Hastings. Trialled here on Wednesday and looked pretty good behind Bit Of A Lad. A must for exotics.
Race 7. (14:55) Cally Hotel Handicap (78) 2350m
He’s been costly to me since arriving in Australia but the set up is there for 5 Etna (Bet Now: $11.00) to run well. He’s been plagued by inside gates/firm tracks since arriving in Australia and really hasn’t had a chance to show his best. This time around he draws out to get clear running from the start, Pike rides and there should be good cushion in the track. Happy to back him each way.
3 Nashville Sound (Bet Now: $2.10) comes here in really good form off the back of a pretty dominant win in the Penola Cup last time out where Raquel Clark had the four year old on speed before dashing clear on the turn and putting them away with relative ease. Off that run, the 2350m on the home track should be fine and regular rider Declan Bates is back on. Has upside, handles a track with give in it, hard to beat.
2 Romanesque (Bet Now: $11.00) looks the one at silly odds. Thought his first two runs for the prep, over unsuitable trips, were quite good, before going to Oakbank where he just didn’t appear to handle the track at all behind impressive winner Meli Melo. Good record on his home track, blinkers are back on and the overall depth here isn’t strong. Near $20, he’s overs for mine.
Race 8. (15:30) Magic Millions National Sale Handicap 1700m
5 Guizot (Bet Now: $2.35) hasn’t won in a little while but gee this looks his race. Ran over the mile at Morphettville last time where he chased hard all the way but couldn’t match the finale of the handy Freedman galloper A Shin Rook. Good record on his home track and is a horse who loves a track with give, and that’s what he should get this time around. The one to beat.
8 Paremuus Boy (Bet Now: $3.30) is racing in really good form at the moment for the Matty Williams team. Impressive winner at the Valley three back before working home well behind a good one in Steel Prince. Then went to Caulfield when again back in the ruck but finished off quite well behind Call It A Day. That Caulfield run was his first run in six weeks, so there should be a stack of improvement left.
There has been good specking for 4 Last Week (Bet Now: $12.00) and can understand why. He resumed in an on pace race at Bendigo (Metro) but I thought his finale was more than satisfactory behind Antah. Suited big time up in trip and he is a horse who doesn’t mind some give in the track. Might need one more run, but I do think the double figures is a touch of overs.
Race 9. (16:00) iDetect Handicap (70) 1200m
I think the market will be the guide to 1 Honourable Mention (Bet Now: $3.40) and how forward he is, but from what I saw, I think he’s ready to go. Henry Dwyer trains this four year old, who hasn’t raced since January 28 at Sandown when winning impressively over 1300m, sitting wide no cover throughout but fighting hard to score. He’s had two jumpouts for his return, and I liked the way he responded in the April 8 jumpout at Camperdown. He’ll do me.
9 The Passage (Bet Now: $11.00) is a really interesting runner. This bloke has had a few homes throughout his time but now finds a new home under the care of Amy McDonald. Does have a good record at the Bool, he can sprint well fresh and I’ve been encouraged by the way he has looked in recent jumpouts. I think the grounding is there to run well first up at this level.
What to do with 13 Duecourse (Bet Now: $15.00). She probably wins this if she runs to her best, but she’s been very disappointing this time in, the latest at Sandown on April 10 when midfield behind Mrs O’Malley. Blinkers are off, Cross Over Nose Band and Tongue Tie goes on and is on the home track. There’s been early market support, which is a good sign…have to include her in the quaddie.
Race 10. (16:30) Carlton Draught Handicap (64) 1100m
Taking a chance with the resuming 2 Aerovictory (Bet Now: $16.00) for Simone Ferchie. Really well bred gelding who has been lightly raced but has shown promise since day one and has run well in town before. Resumes here in what looks a strong 64, but did look sharp in a March 27 jumpout at Geelong when on speed and not being knocked about at all. Draws to get a good run and will do me in a tough race.
16 Atomic Wizard (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Lee Creek trained filly who is a close relation to multiple Stakes winner Casino Wizard who debuted over 900m at Mount Gambier and she showed brilliant sustained speed from the front to spank her rivals in really good time. Drawn wide, but has gate speed and if this track has give in it, on breeding, it should be fine for her.
5 Prince Of Venice (Bet Now: $6.00) is a son of Artie Schiller resuming for the Matty Williams. This bloke ended his Autumn prep last year on a high winning a couple of races on the bounce. Been nearly a year since he has raced, but his recent jumpouts have been quite encouraging to the eye and pleasing to see there has already been market support for the five year old.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Four Number 10 Lord Of The Turf
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 5 Guizot
LONG SHOT: Race Ten Number 2 Aerovictory
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 8
Leg Two: 5
Leg Three: 1, 5, 9, 10, 13
Leg Four: 2, 5, 16, 17
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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