3/3/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Australian Guineas day

The Festival Of Racing in Melbourne continues this Saturday at Flemington where it is Australian Guineas Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Safe option looks 2 Nomothaj (Bet Now: $3.90). She was set a big ask when first up in the Magic Millions at the Gold Coast and for mine, she didn’t appear to handle the extreme heat that afternoon when down the track behind Sunlight. Debut win came at this track/distance when she defeated Sunlight, the last horse to do so. That’s surely the right form for this.

11 Absaroka (Bet Now: $4.00) is a Redoute’s Choice filly on debut for the Hayes/Dabernig team. This girl looked the part in a recent jump out here, settling near the speed before being clicked up and she moved very nicely in hitting the front and going to perform quite impressively. Has the inside gate so she’ll have the rail to follow, which is important for these youngsters on debut down the straight.

10 Naduri (Bet Now: $13.00) is a Fighting Sun filly for the David Briedoake team who was hard in the market when debuting over 1000m at the Bool and despite being off the bit a fair way out, once she balanced up, gee she showed a nice turn of foot and won with a bit in hand to the eye, running good time relative to the day. Should run well.

Underestimated the brilliance of Team Williams last week, and I won’t be making that mistake here. Going with 2 Aloft (Bet Now: $2.50), who is first up. Brilliant winner over 2000m here first up in the Spring before running okay in Cups lead ups. Big ask to resume at 2600m, but the small field and the map suggests he’ll get run of the race stuff.

4 Fanatic (Bet Now: $4.40) is the clear threat. Hayes/Dabernig trained mare who is third up and seems to be peaking ideally in time for the Adelaide Cup. ran in the Torney Cup a couple of Friday nights back at the Valley and worked home with purpose late behind Double Bluff. Looks really well placed here and should take some beating.

3 Double Bluff (Bet Now: $4.20) has really turned the corner in recent times for the in form Robbie Laing team. This bloke has won his past two, winning over 2400m at Caulfield before going to the Torney Cup where he was ridden a treat by Mark Zahra and got up to score a narrow but impressive win. Can only see upside with him and the Flemington 2600m should be ideal.

1 Fragonard (Bet Now: $2.70) looks one of the leading chances. She was hard in the market when resuming in the Bellmaine but like most that day, making ground from the back was difficult to do but her effort was more than sound behind Prussian Vixen. Stable is absolutely flying in Melbourne at the moment and she looks well placed.

2 Hear The Chant (Bet Now: $3.20) is a really good straight track horse resuming for the Hayes/Dabernig yard. This mare had a two run Spring prep, resuming with a second to Fragonard at the Valley before a close up third at Mornington. Trialled up well, good fresh horse. From that Valley race, she actually meets Fragonard worse off, so turning the tables will be interesting.

8 Club Tropicana (Bet Now: $8.50) is a handy mare for the Ellerton/Zahra team who comes through a mares race at the Valley where she got off the pace and was under pressure on the turn, not really responding, but balanced up again and her effort was more than sound behind Avanti Rose. Gets really good weight relief and should track every move of Fragonard.

Back Me: If she gets a soft time of it on speed, then 4 Flippant (Bet Now: $4.80) is the horse to beat. Very good mare for the Snowden camp who comes through the Mannerism last Saturday where, visually, she was disappointing, but she didn’t seem to appreciate the giant that is Samovare pour the pressure on her on the turn and she folded after that. Hoping she is sent straight to the front, and good sign that stable are backing her up, a sign she’s come through that run well.

1 Oregon’s Day (Bet Now: $2.90) is the best mare in the race and I’m very keen to see how she returns. She hasn’t raced since the Summoned at Sandown where she sat near the speed and fought on really well behind Long Time Ago. The key to her is riding her with cover and cold. If that can happen here, I think she’s right in the game.

5 Harlow Gold (Bet Now: $4.80) isn’t suited at 1400m, but she does have class on her side and that will take her a long way. She hasn’t raced since trying to qualify for the Caulfield Cup via the Herbert Power but she was a tired horse after that gutbuster behind Lord Fandango and the pin was pulled on the prep. Can sprint well fresh and she’ll be strong late.

11 Seattle Park (Bet Now: $6.50) on top. Mick Kent trains this lightly raced son of Reset, who was given a 12/10 by Ethan Brown last time out over 1950m at Yarra Valley, sitting back in a fast run race before picking his way through the field, getting clear air at the right time and finishing best in what was a dominant win. Flemington 2000m looks ideal and has upside.

12 Zandarral (Bet Now: $12.00) looks well placed here by Darren Weir to return to the winners list. He ran a couple of Friday nights back over the 2040m at the valley whereBen Allen gave the horse a peach of a ride on speed and he kept finding but ahd to settle for a narrow second to Mutarakem. Nowhere near as much depth here, and down in the weights.

2 All Out Of Love (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained stayer who is just about at peak fitness now third up from a break. He ran over 1800m at Caulfield last Wednesday where he was tucked in behind the speed and while he lacked the turn of foot when they sprinted, he stuck on and his finale was more than sound behind Top Of The Range. Flemington 2000m a big tick.

I’m all over 4 Poetic Dream (Bet Now: $2.90) here. Very exciting import making his Australian debut for the Hayes/Dabernig team. Did his racing in Germany and while there, in a short space of time, he established himself as one of the better three year olds. Comes to Australia as a four year old and he looks to have settled in beautifully if a recent Werribee jump out win is any guide.

Even with the weight, expecting sharp improvement from 1 Tshahitsi (Bet Now: $4.80). Hindsight is a wonderful thing and to be fair, I don’t think this horse should have run in the CF Orr. Outclassed but far from disgraced. Hoping they send this horse straight to the front, because that is when he races best. If that eventuates, he’s in the game.

3 Odeon (Bet Now: $6.50) is a talented stayer for the Ellerton/Zahra team that resumes. This bloke had a pretty solid Autumn campaign, highlighted by a win here over 1800m on Cup Day before backing up in the Emirates where he was far from disgraced behind Tosen Stardom. Jump outs have been good and he is a first up winner.

I’m a loyal guy so have to go with 15 Aloisia (Bet Now: $12.00 BOOSTED ODDS). She was a notable drifter in betting when resuming in the Vanity here a fortnight back and I thought considering where she was in the run, her effort from the back was very good behind Rimraam. The rise to 1600m suits, keeping in mind second up she score one of the more dominant Thousand Guineas wins in recent history.

Big improver here is clearly 1 Mighty Boss (Bet Now: $16.00 BOOSTED ODDS) and he was the real winner from the barrier draw. Forget his run last Saturday in the Futurity. Walker rode him far too aggressively from the gates and that left him gassed at the business end. From the gate, he’ll be put to sleep and look to ambush late.

16 Bring Me Roses (Bet Now: $26.00 BOOSTED OODS) beat Aloisia home in the Vanity and the Oaks, so why she is the price she is baffles me a bit. Trucked nicely a fortnight back and chased hard all the way when second to Rimraam. Should do no work from the gate and second up last time in she was an outstanding winner at this track/distance.

I know he’s first up, but if 1 Fell Swoop (Bet Now: $4.40) can’t win or at least go very close to winning, I’ll be disappointed. He’s a Group l class sprinter, but just a length or two off the elite Group l sprinters. That was proven in the Spring as he went down the Everest path. He ran okay for the most part but just didn’t measure up. Trialled recently and looked outstanding to my eye. Proven down the straight too so he ticks the boxes.

5 Cannyescent (Bet Now: $11.00) is a very talented gelding for the Hayes/Dabernig team who was completely unwanted in betting when resuming in the Rubiton and while he didn’t win, I thought he ran credibly behind Super Cash. Last time he raced down the Flemington straight he placed behind subsequent Manikato winner Hey Doc.

7 Malibu Style (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Neville Parnham trained sprinter that resumes. His Spring prep was very good, competing in some quality events, and while he didn’t win, he more than held his own. Looks to be intent to run well first up because he was given a slick trial a couple of weeks back at Ascot and he has run well down the straight before.

4 Barbeque (Bet Now: $7.50) on top in the get out. James Cummings trains this three year old, who hasn’t raced since January 27 at Caulfield where he sat off the speed and chased hard the entire straight when third to Cao Cao. Meets that horse 2.5kg better off, draws well and recent jump out was very good to the eye.

2 Cao Cao (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Mick Price trained three year who was tough in winning that race mentioned above before going to the CS Hayes where he attempted to lead all the way but they went way to quick in front and he folded late behind Grunt. Think with a more economical run here, he can bounce back hard.

10 Angelic Spirit (Bet Now: $12.00) is a very talented filly resuming for the in form Busuttin/Young team. She showed good promise in the Spring but it all came up too soon for her I think and she raced like a tired horse in the Edward Manifold. Stable are absolutely flying with their three year olds at the moment. Big watch.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 1 Fell Swoop

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Aloft

VALUE: Race Nine Number 4 Barbeque

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 11

Leg Two: 1, 5, 7, 15, 16

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 10

$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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