3/12/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Pakenham, Pakenham Cup day

Pakenham will host their biggest raceday on Saturday for Pakenham Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Pakenham Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Pakenham Cup

12 Matron Bullwinkel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a promising mare for the Maher/Eustace camp that commands respect. Good late fresh on Geelong Cup Day before going to Flemington on Oaks Day when given a peach by J Mac and she got better as the race went on to win. That was 1700m and she does race like further will suit, which is what she gets here. Hard to beat.

7 Brayden Star (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an import with good promise for the Busuttin/Young stable. Australian debut came on Cranbourne Cup Day where he found a pretty weak race and not entirely sure he handled the track, but he had plenty on them and was too good. Bigger track, 2000m, he gets a much better set up.

11 Za’Ex (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a first four contender. He ran over this trip under the lights at The Valley last time out and while he was never a threat to Zoumon, I thought he stuck to his task pretty well in defeat to run third. I reckon Friday nights are his go, and this is a bit too strong, but he can run top four.

Landed with 3 Adele Amour (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for John Sadler, who no doubt will have this mare ready for the home deck and a big raceday. Ran in the Pendant at Cranbourne last time and didn’t have any luck at all in the straight when having plenty to offer and should have fought the finish out. Gets a big jockey upgrade and on the bigger track, keen on her chances.

Fitter and up to 1200m are two big ticks for 7 Throntari (Bet Now:  $SP.00). She resumed in the Magic Millions 3&4YO Classic a fortnight back and was very good from last on the turn, beaten just over a length by Direct in running fourth. If she can settle closer in the run and be within range, she has the finale to win.

2 Lady Dunmore (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will jump on the bunny and run a bold race. She took on two rivals last time at Bendigo on a testing track and she just handled the track best to win. The two runners ran well enough last Friday night at Cranbourne, and she has home track advantage. Knockout hope.

I’m siding with 13 Just Johnno (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who resumes for Lindsey Smith. He hasn’t raced since July 18 on the home deck at Warrnambool when back in the run but made a sustained run to loom into the race but the sustained run just told late in the piece when third. His recent jumpout work has been sharp and I think this race is a touch on the thin side.

2 La Caresse (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing really well for Matt Laurie and commands respect here. Game in defeat two back on Moe Cup Day before being freshened up and racing at Ballarat where he drew gate one and that sealed his fate given it was quicksand, but he did a good job in defeat to finish fourth. Fitter, up in trip, he appeals.

11 Hinto Blue (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one for multiples. He ran over this trip at The Valley last time out where he got a fair way out of his ground and was never really a threat, but liked the way he finished his race off behind Redzoust. Gets in pretty well after the claim and a knockout chance if the inside gate is used to advantage.

4 Najem Suhail (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will need luck from a tricky gate but I reckon 1000m is perfect for him. He hasn’t raced since Champions Day at Flemington down the straight where he tried his guts out but couldn’t quite get there when second to the well tried Snapper. Like him back to 1000m and gets B Shinn to steer. Hard to beat.

9 Dance To Dubai (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has home track advantage so you’d think first up on Cup Day, she’ll be around the mark re fitness. She resumes after a pretty solid Winter prep, where she won first up over 1100m before being far from disgraced in several subsequent runs. Dynamite fresh horse and her recent jumpout win here was sharp.

Firmer footing can see 2 Sam’s Image (Bet Now:  $SP.00) run a much improved race, especially on the home deck. He ran two weeks back at Ballarat where he looked to be cruising on speed but when asked for the big effort, the wheels were spinning and couldn’t finish the race off behind Mnementh. Back on top of the ground, he can run a ripper.

9 River Ribble (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a talented three year old for Team Freedman that resumes and I think can resume a winner. He had a three run Winter prep, highlighted by a maiden win fresh at Cranbourne, making an absolute mess of them in a commanding performance. Couple of jumpouts to get ready and I do think he might be better suited at 1000m rather than 1200m.

2 Dusse (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a filly I have plenty of time for and no shock she has improved from Lloyd Kennewell to Maher/Eustace. 2/2 for the new stable, winning fresh at Sale before going to The Valley when wide no cover for the trip but she had panels on them and was much too good. Short course is her go in life, so she looks well placed once again.

4 Fission (Bet Now:  $SP.00) hasn’t done too much wrong this time in. Resumed with a strong win at The Valley and placed there last time, with a down the track effort at Flemington on Cup Day in between. He seems best suited at the short course and for mine is a dry track horse, so he gets conditions to suit.

10 Curran (Bet Now:  $SP.00) doesn’t have the best of racing patterns but has the engine under the hood to take this out. Several weeks between runs since racing down the straight at Flemington where he again got back and made up solid headway without threatening behind Argentia. He goes close to winning if he’s within range 400m out.

3 Felicia (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a horse I am very interested in. She’s having her first run for Team Snowden and I think she’s ready to go. Jumpout win at Flemington was quite sharp, leading throughout and when asked for an effort, she responded nicely. Shinn rode in the jumpout and he sticks here, which I think is a good lead.

Fitter and up to 1200m are two big ticks for 14 William Thomas (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Resumed in the Apache Cat and the way the race was run, he was zero hope and ran accordingly, finishing last behind Jigsaw, who franked the form in the Doveton last Saturday. He’s capable with his best and and has a good second up record.

7 Wyclif (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a key winning chance. Danny O’Brien trained gelding that ran over 2000m at Flemington a few weeks back and he chased strongly from off the speed, but couldn’t quite get there when second to the well tried Flash Feeling. That was his first run in a few weeks, so you’d like to think there is room for improvement.

6 Kissinger (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been up a while but is holding his form superbly. Game second two back on Thousand Guineas Day at Caulfield before going to this trip on Cranbourne Cup Day when given a sweet steer by Olly and in a driving go was able to finish best, being strong to the line. Harder here, but he’s deserving of a crack.

8 Nobel Heights (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has upside to come and with a sit, can threaten. They rode him forward three weeks back at Cranbourne and tried his guts out but couldn’t quite get there when nabbed late by a hard fit/in form Kissinger. He’s a talented horse when right and I think he’ll get conditions to suit here.

Pretty keen here on 5 Jimmy The Bear (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Patrick Payne trained four year old that resumed in the Golden Eagle where he got back to near last from the wide gate but loved the way he found the line without threatening behind I Wish I Win. Much better placed here and is very genuine. Keen.

2 Looks Like Elvis (Bet Now:  $SP.00) won this race last year and it looks like he has been set for it. He resumes for Jarrod Austin, having not raced since July 30 when a narrow second at Eagle Farm to a handy horse, Love Tap. Form around him, gee it reads well for a race like this, and his two trials in Sydney have been sharp.

4 Wicklow Town (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is hard to beat with his absolute best. Thrown in the deep end to start the prep with a couple of Stakes races. He then went to the China Bowl at Ararat, back to 1200m and was just fair in defeat behind a good horse, Do Ya Punk. Like him back up to 1400m and he has raced when contesting these VOBIS races. If he can find somewhere near his best, he can win for sure.

Not sure she will reach the heights of stablemate Lighthouse, but I do think 2 Ivy League (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can make a winning Australian debut. Foremr American mare who brings stronger form lines than Lighthouse, and we know what she’s done in Australia. She jumped out in early November at Ararat and gee she moved well in the straight when asked. Market will be fascinating, but she could easily be too good for this lot.

5 Chicago Bear (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a promising import for the Busuttin/Young camp and I think having the run under the belt is a big tick for him. Australian debut came over the mile at Flemington a few weeks ago and I think with a half decent ride, clear air, he wins the race instead of a fourth to French Emperor. Solid overseas form and has enormous upside compared to most.

4 Beltoro (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is bursting to win a race and I think he does command respect here. Caught the eye late first up on Geelong Cup Day behind Maximus Prime before going to Flemington where he worked to the line strongly late when second to the very much in form French Emperor. Third up now, so should be hard fit and will be strong late.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 5 Jimmy The Bear

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 4 Najem Suhail

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 2 Ivy League

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 10, 14

Leg Two: 4, 6, 7, 8

Leg Three: 5

Leg Four: 2, 4, 5, 8, 15

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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