3/12/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Northerly Stakes day

The Pinnacles at Ascot continues this Saturday, headlined by the Group l Northerly Stakes (1800m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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Northerly Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Northerly Stakes

Tricky race for the babies but have landed with 6 Generosity (Bet Now:  $SP.00), Simo Miller trained daughter of Divine Prophet that is on debut off the back of just one trial, which came at Belmont over 400m and normally those trials, I take with a grain of salt, but watching the replay, past the line she was savaging the ground, so that impressed me with her, and stable rarely misfire with their juveniles.

1 Soaring Solo (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the proven raceday performer so she commands respect. That came two weeks ago here when on debut and getting the sweet sit in the run before the button was pushed and she showed good change up speed to win impressively. There is depth to this race IMO but race experience counts for so much.

4 Flying The Flag (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Galah for Team Pearce that is on debut. He’s had a couple of trials to get ready for start one, both trials being over 950m, so he’s had the solid grounding for the debut compared to most first starters engaged here, and stable gets Chris Parnham to steer.

1 Street Parade (Bet Now:  $SP.00) isn’t the best horse in the race in terms of ability, but he’s the best 1000m horse in the race and gets J Mac, so that’s enough for me. Strong winner over 1100m here, beating home Category Three, who I am keen on later in the card. Lands in a plum spot from the gate and should take beating.

2 Aztec Ruler (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a promising animal for Stefan Vahala that resumes. He had two runs in the first prep during the Winter, winning both times and each run being quite impressive the way he found the line to win. Has taken on good horses in both trials to get ready, and I do think he’s better suited at 1200m, but has a touch of class/quality.

7 Deetea (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been around the mark throughout her career and comes to town as a last start winner. That win was a maiden victory at Northam when on speed, seemingly getting control and was there to be run down but had something in the locker and was too good. Harder here, but is the one that is hard fit.

5 Truly Inspired (Bet Now:  $SP.00), I think, is a Perth Cup pony for Bob Peters and trained Adam Durrant. Got a 12/10 frm Pike two weeks ago over 2200m here, getting back in the run before Pike sliced his way through the field, got clear air and the horse made an absolute mess of them. He’s hard fit, in form and I still think has some upside to come.

Fitter and back up in trip are two big ticks for 4 Mystery Island (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He was 2200m back to the mile last Thursday at Northam and I thought he worked to the line with real purpose late when second to Surveillance. Gets back up in trip now, fitter and gets John Allen to steer. Hard to beat.

1 Brother Paddy (Bet Now:  $SP.00) jumps straight to 2100m from 1400m. That 1400m run came two weeks back here where he got back to near last and worked home okay without threatening behind promising mare Alsephina. Needs to show something to warrant heading down the Perth Cup path, but the run prior in the Kalgoorlie Cup suggests he’s up to this level.

The cerise and white, as a whole, are cast, but I do think 9 Category Three (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will take a power of beating here. She’s had two runs back from a break, the latest coming three weeks ago over 1200m here when back near last in the run and worked home strongly late when second to Real Danger. Hard fit now and getting to 1400m, think she’ll take beating against these.

1 Trade War (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is bursting to win one for Michael Lane. Looked like it could come a fortnight back here but had to settle for a narrow second to a very progressive mare, Alsephina. That mare would be odds on against these, so that form reads quite strong. Just a query of finding it hard to win.

Back to 1400m I find interesting with 2 Castillo Del Lago (Bet Now:  $SP.00) but he’ll land on speed and look to give his all. Three weeks between runs since racing over the mile here when attempting to lead throughout and gave a solid kick but couldn’t quite finish it off when fourth to Megazone. Doubt he wins, but a first four contender.

4 Karalee Rocks (Bet Now:  $SP.00) doesn’t have the best of racing patterns but gee she has a big engine on her, certainly good enough to take care of this lot. Ran over this trip at Belmont just under two weeks ago and produced a brilliant finale from near last on the turn to win in sensational fashion, clocking great late splits. If she’s within range on the turn, I think she’ll be too good.

3 Real Danger (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is racing in solid form for Adam Durrant and I reckon back to 1200m is a big tick for her. Ran over 1400m a fortnight back here when near the speed and battled on really well in defeat behind a promising mare, Alsephina. Two wins prior came at 1200m, so back to that trip here should see her be a worthy threat.

1 Nobel Laurence (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. Formerly with Deane Skipworth, he now finds himself with Jason Pateman. Can’t find a recent trial for him but he’s a good horse when right, he can sprint well fresh and Lucy Warwick rides the horse better than anyone. She is booked for the return, so watch the market.

The form guide, on paper, will suggest that 13 Zephyra (Bet Now:  $SP.00) hasn’t come up this prep, but both runs back she’s had clear excuses. Fresh, 1200m was too short for her. She then went to 1400m two weeks ago and it was a car crash watch if you were on from gate one. Clear air this time around, she gets her chance to show how well she’s going. I think she’s going well enough to take care of these.

2 Tri For Us (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a ripping mare for the Durrant camp and can certainly take this out. Ran over this track/distance a fortnight back and tried her guts out but just didn’t have the quality to win, instead finishing second to Above The Peg. Gets in pretty well after the claim and the depth, as a whole, is weaker.

7 Olden (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an interesting runner. Daniel O’Connor trained gelding that resumes, having not raced since September 3 when producing an end of prep run over 2100m at Belmont behind General Grant. Resumes without a trial, but has residual fitness and you’d assume is forward enough given he resumes at the mile.

6 Vane Tempest (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks a great gamble here. She’s been up a while but I think she is flying. Got a mile out of her ground two weeks ago in the Jungle Mist but loved the way she found the line late in the piece behind dominant winner Sniparoochy. If the inside gate is used to advantage and can settle much closer in the run, she’ll take beating.

1 Ginger Flyer (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Simon Miller trained mare that resumes and resuming at 1400m suggests to me she’s forward enough to give this a shake. She did a fabulous job when last in work and her trial work tp get ready has been quite encouraging. She’ll land near the speed and give a bold sight.

4 Sentimental Queen (Bet Now:  $SP.00) resumes for Hayden Ballantyne and I dare say she will be aimed at the Starstruck. Looked a sneaky Perth Cup chance when last in work but resuming now tells me that ship has sailed. She’s a very good mare at her best and while she is better suited over further, class will carry her a fair way, and she’s trialled up really well.

It is going to be fascinating to see if gate one is a blessing or a nightmare for 16 Amelia’s Jewel (Bet Now:  $SP.00). If it’s a blessing, I think she will be too brilliant for them. Loved the way she dug in to win the WA Guineas two weeks ago and this has been the target all prep for her. If she can get clear air at the right time, she’s clearly the one to beat.

Class will carry 1 Cascadian (Bet Now:  $SP.00) a long, long way. He has panels on them re class and was very good last time in the Champions Stakes at Flemington. The two queries I have are the map, with a wide gate being awful for him, and the fact he has been in work a long time. Surely there has to be a tipping point.

6 God Has Chosen (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is my Perth Cup horse. He has just looked very dour all prep and to my eye wanting further. No turn of foot in the Railway but loved the way he found the line for a horse wanting more ground. Doubt he wins, but a must for multiples.

10 Burnya To Survive (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. Jason Miller trained gelding that resumes after a two run prep in the Winter, where he failed to fire, but I am putting that down to wet tracks. Given a good break, his two trials to get ready have been sharp and they find Pike first up, which is a good lead.

8 Cash Away (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks hard to beat here. Ran two weeks ago over 1000m here where he didn’t quite get the rub of the green in the straight and can make a small case to say he fights the finish out if he gets a clean run when third to Beads. Drops miles in depth, he’s hard to beat against these.

Fitter and up to 1200m can see 2 Flying Missile (Bet Now:  $SP.00) run a much improved race. She resumed over 1000m here in the same race that Cash Away contested. She got into a lovely spot in the run but just found the five furlongs too sharp. Might want one more run, but has the quality to take this out.

BEST BET: Race Three Nmber 5 Truly Inspired

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 4 Karalee Rocks

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 6 Vane Tempest

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3, 7, 13

Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6, 9

Leg Three: 1, 16

Leg Four: 2, 7, 8, 10

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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