3/11/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Hawkesbury, Ladies Day Cup day

Oaks Day racing in NSW heads to Hawkesbury where it is Ladies Day Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres from the 1100m-450m; True for the remainder.

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Ladies Day Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Ladies Day Cup

Tricky maiden to start the meeting. Landed with 8 Clovelly (Bet Now: $12.00), who is on debut for Matty Smith. She’s had a solid enough grounding for start one, with Autumn and Winter preps without a run. She’s had two trials this time in to get ready and what I liked about the latest trial is that when asked for an effort, she responded. Tricky draw, but should slide forward and prove hard to beat at start one.

6 Shipshape (Bet Now: $9.50) is an interesting runner. Astern colt for James Cummings that is on debut. He hasn’t quite set the world on fire in a couple of trials to rubber stamp him as a debut winner, but the trials have been solid enough for a race like this, and with the Godolphin polish, he does command respect.

10 Ponca (Bet Now: $15.00) is bred to appreciate further but I think she has talent. Team Freedman trained filly that had a solid Autumn prep as a juvenile, contesting some solid races and was far from disgraced for the most part. Just one soft trial to get ready, but gets a good map and has the hard race experience.

I like 12 Mount Warning (Bet Now: $8.50) here. Daughter of Astern for Joe Pride that is on debut and she looks ready to rock and roll. She’s had three trials to get ready this time in for the debut, the latest seeing her lead throughout at Warwick Farm and the change up speed was pretty good. She’ll roll forward from the gate and take beating.

7 Whinchat (Bet Now: $3.80) looks prepped up for a strong first up showing. David Pfieffer trained colt that hasn’t raced since his debut at Newcastle back in June when a closing third after getting back off the speed. Had a couple of trials after that but was spelled. Spelled and has had two trials this time in to get ready, so keen to see how he goes.

2 Full Cry (Bet Now: $51.00) is an interesting runner. Richard Collett trained four year old that is on debut, having not been seen since a September 15 trial here where he was beaten over seven lengths but didn’t move too bad to the eye. Stack of gear changes for start one, astute camp, watch the market.

9 Selfless Act (Bet Now: $4.20) on top for me. Panzer Division filly for Kim Waugh that looks to have her share of talent. She led throughout to win a Gosford trial and despite doing a bit wrong, wanting to lay in, she seemed to move pretty well to my eye. Laying in can be negated by drawing inside and has a right handed whip rider in J Collett to steer. She’ll do me.

2 The Impact (Bet Now: $3.20) is one of the key threats. Brad Widdup trained son of Zoustar for Brad Widdup that was well backed when racing at Bathurst last start when back in the run and closed off strongly when a narrow second. On the home deck, he commands respect.

1 Mr Papera (Bet Now: $61.00) can be an improver. He was kept safe at odds when debuting at Canberra but he just struggled on the wet ground and couldn’t pick his feet up behind Louie’s Legacy. Several gear changes and firmer footing, I think he can be a big improver here.

5 Stella Glow (Bet Now: $8.00) might want one more run, but the return was too good to ignore, so I have to be in her corner. She resumed in a Highway at Randwick over the mile where she was back on a day where up/in was dynamite, and I actually thought she did a very good job to finish as close as she did. Straight to 2100m and Blinkers off I find interesting, but she’s the one with good upside.

6 Enjolras (Bet Now: $4.50) is a key threat. He has run in a couple of Highways at Randwick in recent efforts, both times behind Socrates, and while he’s never been a threat, he’s found the line pretty well. He’s racing like more ground will suit, which he gets here, and it’s a thin race.

3 Credit Crunch (Bet Now: $18.00) has the 2100m lead up under the belt to hold her in good stead. That came at Gosford where she got a mile out of her ground and was never a factor but did make up some headway and was okay late. If she can settle closer in the run, I think she’ll be dangerous at odds.

This is a bit of a niothing maiden, so I want to give the enigma that is 8 Showcourt (Bet Now: $15.00) another chance. He ran in a 1400m maiden at Warwick Farm last time out where he was just too keen in the run and wasn’t able to finish it off. He has the engine under the hood, but upstairs, he’s not there. If he brings his best, he wins…just a matter of producing it.

6 Oriental Tycoon (Bet Now: $1.70) looks ready to win. Team Snowden trained colt that resumed at Warwick Farm and I really liked the way he found the line late when second to a progressive animal, Golden Age. Fitter and up to 1500m, he has the runs on the board to give this a shake.

Fitter and up to 1500m are two big ticks for 10 Adorned (Bet Now: $41.00). Matty Smith trained mare that resumed over 1200m at Nowra where she was a bit one paced when asked for the effort, but picked up late and wasn’t too bad. Not sure I could back her to win, but one for exotics.

8 Real Peace (Bet Now: $9.50) is the each way bet for me. Trialled up well enough prior to resuming over 1400m here and I think no doubt he goes close to winning if he gets clear air in the straight instead of a sixth to Stick To Your Guns. J Collett rides the horse better than anyone, he rides Hawkesbury better than anyone, and has more upside than most.

4 Rosovo (Bet Now: $3.50) has the Godolphin polish to command respect. He resumed over 1400m here when somewhat unwanted in betting but I liked the way he finished his race off when second to Stick To Your Guns. He only had one soft 740m trial leading in, so you’d think is open to loads of improvement.

12 Diva Diva (Bet Now: $26.00) is a key threat back to provincial grade. Last couple of runs have come at the midweeks in town, the latest at Warwick Farm when far from disgraced in defeat behind Miss Madison. Back to this level, with luck from the gate, she’s hard to beat.

2 Russbuss (Bet Now: $6.00) deserves another look. John Sargent trained mare that was a dominant winner at Kembla two back before going to a Midway at Randwick where she didn’t quite get the rub of the green in the straight and I thought should have finished a touch closer. Off the Kembla win, she can take this out.

7 Ottilie (Bet Now: $2.90) is a very interesting runner. Formerly with the GaiBott camp, she now finds herself with Jason Deamer. 2/2 when last in work, and yes she was well placed, but each win was dominant. Looked sharp in a recent Gosford trial and finds a winnable race.

11 Flash Point (Bet Now: $13.00) is dangerous. She ran over this track/distance last start where the track was a bit on the shifty side and she battled, but far from disgraced in defeat. Back on top of the ground is a big tick for her and drawn soft, she’s a knockout hope.

5 The Frontman (Bet Now: $8.50) is the each way bet in the feature. He hasn’t quite set the world on fire since arriving from NZ, but this is a very thin race and the easiest he has contested since arriving. He contested the Five Diamonds Prelude at Randwick and just pen the run. They walked in front, he was back, held up…just forget he went around. Much better suited here and for mine, he’s the value.

2 Lord Ardmore (Bet Now: $3.20) can bounce back big time. Forget he went around in the Five Diamonds Prelude when wide, doing a stack of work to eventually get on speed, and just couldn’t go on with it. Massive drop in grade/depth, lands gate one and should improve from that run.

4 Soldier Of Love (Bet Now: $7.50) is a knockout chance. Led and stuck on well fresh at Randwick behind Remarque before being thrown in the deep end in the Sydney Stakes and I actually didn’t mind the way she found the line behind Rocketing By. Hard fit and up in trip, he’s right in the mix.

3 Jamesonheart (Bet Now: $5.00) will do me in the get out. Maher/Eustace trained gelding that had three trials prior to resuming at Goulburn where he got a fair way back in the run but was able to pick up and launch late to record a strong returning win. He’s got room for improvement, jockey upgrade and maps ideally.

8 Soarhi (Bet Now: $6.50) is a son of Testa Rossa for Team Hawkes that resumes. He hasn’t raced since June 15 at Sandown when racing on heavy ground and struggling to pick his feet up behind Big Brew. He is a first up winner and with two trials under the belt, I think he’s ready to go.

10 Kinship (Bet Now: $19.00) is one for multiples. Rod Northam trained gelding that ran on the Beaumont track at Newcastle last time when ridden with intent, leading, and giving a solid kick, but couldn’t quite finish it off behind Imperial Grey. Soft gate helps his cause.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 9 Selfless Act

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 12 Mount Warning

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 5 The Frontman

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4, 7, 8, 10, 12

Leg Two: 2, 4, 6, 7, 11

Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5

Leg Four: 2, 3, 8, 10

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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