3/11/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Randwick

Melbourne Cup Day racing in Sydney heads to Randwick for an eight race card. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out seven metres for the entire circuit.

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2 Kermanding (Bet Now: $2.30) is a promising animal for Team Snowden. Took a little while to break the maiden tag but it finally came over the mile at Kembla last Saturday, bolting up and justifying the $1.60 quote. The form guide says 0/2 on wet ground, but the two runs saw him finish fourth and each time he produced great late splits, so he’ll be fine on wet ground.

4 The Elanora (Bet Now: $4.60) is an interesting runner here. Chris Waller trained colt that comes here off the back of a maiden win over 1400m, charging home from the back to score. Visually, an impressive performance, but he was $41 to win that day, so it wasn’t really expected, and now you have to tkae $4/thereabouts. Can win, but maybe a touch short in betting.

Back in trip I do like for 5 Wild Irish (Bet Now: $6.00). David Payne trained filly that broke her maiden status over 1900m at Gosford last time out before going to 2000m at Kembla where she was a heavily backed favourite but I thought had every chance and just didn’t run out the 2000m when a tiring fourth. Like her back to 1800m and Avdulla takes over.

I think a 1×3 bet is acceptable with 3 Think High (Bet Now: $10.00). Matty Dunn trained son of So You Think that made his debut over 1200m at Lismore. He looked completely drunk around the tight track but once he balanced up, gee he attacked the line hard, just missing out on the win. Will need luck from the gate, but at around $20, will definitely have a small ticket each way.

4 Easifar (Bet Now: $1.90) looks the one to beat on form. Pride Of Dubai filly for Chris Waller that has placed in both career outings. Debuted with a close up second on the Kenso track before going to Warwick Farm where she was near the speed and tried hard but couldn’t get there when third to Ellsberg. Blinkers on to sharpen her up, hard to beat…short enough though.

7 Understatement (Bet Now: $17.00) is a WaterBott trained three year old that resumes and returns to racing as a gelding, which would have been a tough decision given he’s out of Group l winner Pear Tart. Didn’t set the world on fire in two career outings but the two trials leading in have been encouraging. One for wider multiples.

Think Chris Waller will win the race. Just a matter of which one. Leaning towards 12 Kiku (Bet Now: $3.00). Resumes, having not raced since April 22 when placing at Canterbury behind Bellevue Star, producing some of the better late splits of the race. Looked sharp in a Warwick Farm trial win and on breeding, wet track should be fine.

1 Cat D’Oro (Bet Now: $2.80) is a beautifully bred three year old for Chris Waller that is first up. Being out of former top mare Catkins, this guy will always have a following. Did some nice things in his first prep on a couple of occasions before being spelled. Trialled solid enough but I reckon watch the market with this guy and see what it does.

Very interested in 7 Rustic Steel (Bet Now: $14.00). Kris Lees trained colt that has only had one 800m trial to get ready. Finished fourth, beaten seven odd lengths, but he did balk at heels about 200m after the start and from there, he wasn’t really extended. Interesting they debut in town instead of the provincials, so watch the market I feel.

The safe option is 2 Great News (Bet Now: $2.60) for Kim Waugh. This mare had one soft trial leading into her resumption at Newcastle over 1200m where she led throughout under a lovely steer from Jay Ford, who got complete control in front and turned it into a sit/sprint. Tired late, but entitled to given he put the foot down 600m out. Gets run of the race from the draw and the claim for Sherry is a big tick.

8 East Asia (Bet Now: $4.50) is a progressive mare for the Pat Webster team. Had good specking at a price last time out at Warwick Farm and under Brandon Griffiths, she was able to wear them down and finish over the top. Remains down in the weights after the claim and does like wet ground, so think she’s hard to beat.

6 Joliette (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Chris Waller trained mare that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since the Brisbane Winter Carnival when pulling up lame in the Pam O’Neill behind the then flying filly Vanna Girl, which clearly reads well for a race like this. Trial was decent enough and stable has had good success when switching from QLD to NSW.

Another 1×3 bet here, this time with 11 Let Me Think (Bet Now: $21.00). We so often with these horses that a while to break a maiden, once they do, they go on with it. She gave them a belting in a 1500m Hawkesbury maiden, charging clear late to win with something in hand. Back in trip on wet ground I don’t mind, she’s hard fit and now has winning form.

The Kris Lees stable will hope that the track can dry up for 10 Perfect Radiance (Bet Now: $1.85). She seems far more effective on firmer footing compared to wet ground. Resumed at Newcastle and class got her home in a solid return. Does no work from the inside gate, Avdulla knows her…just doesn’t want the track to be too wet.

Think a bit of juice in the track will help the cause of 7 My Demetra (Bet Now: $10.00) for Team Snowden. Resumed on a pretty firm Warwick Farm deck and worked to the line okay without really threatening behind speedster Intrepidacious. Seems to save her best for tracks with give in it, and she’s a second up winner.

Provided this track is playing even, 9 Atlantic King (Bet Now: $3.20) is the best on the program. Resumed on the Kenso track here and produced some of the best late splits of the meeting when a closing second to Enchanted Heart, who won on Saturday at Rosehill to tick that form off. If he can get luck from the gate, he’ll be too good for these.

2 Gone Bye (Bet Now: $2.70) is getting fitter and out to a more ideal trip, even though he might need one more. Raced over 1550m on the Kenso track last time out where he had the suck run in behind the speed and tried hard when a close up third to Olympic Legend, producing good late splits. Gets the claim for Sherry, lands near the speed and will try hard.

7 Steely (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Ryan/Alexiou trained four year old that I think can run well here. Not sure he beat much last time out at Newcastle, but what impressed me was the ticker he showed. He was there to be run after being one of the first under pressure, but he found plenty and was too good. Is a winner on a heavy track, sits just off the speed and in form.

With good speed engaged here, it will give 10 Stephan (Bet Now: $26.00) a chance to finish over the top. Gratz Vella trained sprinter that has had two runs back from a spell, both on his home track at Canberra. Needed the run fresh, but liked the way he finished off last time out when a closing fifth. Proven city performer and has an excellent third up record.

There is good speed engaged here, but won’t be enough I don’t think to hold out 8 Spaceboy (Bet Now: $2.35), who looks well placed to resume a winner. Hasn’t raced since July 18 on the Kenso track when making it three on end and he was outstanding in winning given the early pressure he copped. Two trials to get ready have been good, he should hold the lead and give a great sight.

Fascinating runner is 1 Spirit Of Valor (Bet Now: $10.00), a former Aidan O’Brien sprinter that had a stint with the Maher/Eustace steam but is now with Kris Lees. He’s a Group class sprinter when at his best and the stable have played the patient game with him, sending him around in four trials in the space of five weeks to get ready, so he’s a huge market watch.

At the better odds, I’m with 12 Never Talk (Bet Now: $3.70) in the get out. Kris Lees trained filly that is unbeaten in her short career to date, winning 3/3, and each time she has been impressive. Resumed over 900m at Newcastle when backed as if unbeatable but after being tardy away, she was last and looked no hope. But, she saved ground nearer the inside and once she burst through, away she went. Pretty smart I feel. Hopefully can get three wide cover and finish over the top.

I can see 2 Belluci Babe (Bet Now: $1.65) being very popular in the get out. Good winning strike rate, puts herself on speed and has a really good turn of foot. Was a notable betting drift when racing over 1000m on the Kenso track last time out but the drift didn’t matter to her. She bolted up and was much too good. Don’t see 1100m being an issue and is clearly one of the hardest to beat.

I nearly put a pen through 11 November Man (Bet Now: $21.00), but his last start effort behind Belluci Babe was encouraging. Got back to near last in the run and made up good ground at the end, finishing fourth. Not sure I could back him to win, but off that, can include in wider multiples, and Christian Reith does ride him well.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 9 Atlantic King

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 12 Never Talk

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 3 Think High

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 4, 7, 8, 10, 11

Leg Two: 9

Leg Three: 1, 4, 8, 10

Leg Four: 2, 12

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