The Brisbane Carnival heats right up this Saturday at Eagle Farm with Victory Stakes Day, featuring a quality field in the $200,000 Group ll event. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out a metre for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:02) : Darley Kingsford-Smith Cup Day Handicap (Class 6) 1000m:
Back Me: 5 Colinelle (Bet Now: $3.00) is an above average gelding for the O’Dea camp that was a drifter in the market when resuming over 1050m at Doomben but nobody told the horse that as he showed a lovely turn of foot from off the pace to score a dominant fresh win. He showed during the Winter he can mix it with some high class animals, including River Racer. That reads well for this.
Big Danger: 2 Tailevent (Bet Now: $6.00) didn’t appear to do much in a trial on his home track at the Gold Coast but the punters knew something first up at Toowoomba, backing him at double figure odds and they landed the money with a strong win near the speed. 1100m back to 1000m would be a concern, but the bigger track that Eagle Farm is will feel like 1100m.
Long Shot: 1 Trevinder (Bet Now: $6.00) is the watch horse here. Former Victorian that was with the Ellerton/Zahra camp but is now with Rob Heathcoate and makes his QLD debut. On his Melbourne form, he’d probably go close to winning this, and his trial behind Madotti at Deagon was very encouraging. Watch the market and see what it does with him.
Race Two (12:37) : Treasury Brisbane Ladies Oaks Day Handicap (85) 1500m:
Back Me: 4 Desert General (Bet Now: $4.20) can be a hard horse to trust, but I think he gets his chance here. Encouraging effort last time out over 1350m at Doomben where he sat on speed and fought on gamely but couldn’t hold out Time To Torque late in the piece. Up to 1500m suits, he loves give in the track and Lloyd jumps on.
Big Danger: 8 Slydini (Bet Now: $6.50) is a consistent galloper for Team Guy who may appreciate the drop back to 1500m after racing over the mile at Doomben a fortnight back where he tried hard but just didn’t quite finish it off behind Ruling Force. He is another who loves a wet track, so that box tick brings him into the mix.
Long Shot: 3 Fast Arrow (Bet Now: $13.00) has been up for a long time but continues to race well if you ignore last start over the mile at Doomben where he contested an open handicap, a slowly run one, and just didn’t get anything to suit behind Brazen Moss. This looks more his level and he loves getting his toe in.
Race Three (13:12) : UBET Stradbroke Day Handicap 1805m:
Big Danger: 6 Dream Finnish (Bet Now: $4.40) was 1350m to 2000m when contesting the Toowoomba Cup last time out and gee she did a mighty job to get as close as she did to Cylinder Beach given that scenario. Now that she has had that hard 2000m run under the belt, I think she’ll be better off at 1800m here and rates highly.
Big Danger: 2 Ruling Force (Bet Now: $7.00) is a horse in ripping form at the moment for the Kelly Schweida camp. Lifted late to win on Toowoomba Cup Day before backing up seven days later and toughing it out superbly at the Doomben mile. Suited up to 1800m and the claim for Tiff Brooker is a huge help.
Long Shot: 9 Kaiser Franz (Bet Now: $15.00)is the one with upside here and represents value. He ran over the Doomben mile a fortnight back and closed off okay late in the piece behind the low flying Ruling Force. He is third up here, so he should scope left this prep and the rise to 1800m is a big tick for this galloper.
Race Four (13:47) : UBET Dalrello Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Snitzkraft (Bet Now: $2.25) goes on top now with the scratching of Condor Heroes. This youngster for the Wood/Gesler yard was a real standout later on in the prep and showed signs as to why he could well be a force during the Brisbane Winter Carnival. Fitness levels are unknown, but I think he has the class/quality to overcome that.
Big Danger: 1 Ours To Keep (Bet Now: $3.00) is a quality colt that resumes here for Chris Munce. Put together two sharp wins before heading to the Magic Millions where he was the pick of the local boys but perhaps he was looking for the paddock when midfield to Houtzen. Trial win at Doomben was encouraging and he does appear lethal when produced fresh.
Long Shot: 8 Pricing Power (Bet Now: $21.00) could be the knockout runner here at odds. Ran over 1200m at Doomben last time out and did an enormous job in defeat given she was three wide no cover on speed in a race run at a solid tempo. Was still fighting with 150m to go but was picked off late. If she can get cover, I think she’s right in the race.
Race Five (14:27) : Sky Thoroughbred Central Handicap 1300m:
Back Me: 3 Billy The Kid (Bet Now: $2.00) looks one of the better bets on the program here. Very talented three year old for the Meagher camp who took all before him in three runs during the Spring, winning two of three, with the only loss being a third to Winning Rupert. Trial at Deagon was outstanding and he flies fresh. Keen.
Big Danger: 6 Zamex (Bet Now: $9.00) is the watch horse from a possible Derby perspective. He was very good in his first prep during the Summer, winning his first two starts before running midfield to Volpino over the Doomben mile. Looked to trial up well behind The Ambassadore and that horse ran well in the Mick Dittman last weekend, so the form reads well.
Long Shot: 14 Sornja (Bet Now: $13.00) is the interesting one for mine here. Still a maiden for the O’Dea camp but is showing good promise. Resumed over 1200m at the Sunny Coast a couple of weeks back and tried hard but was bloused late, with condition giving out. She should come on from that and the Eagle Farm 1300m looks perfect.
Race Six (15:07) : Ekyce Gavin Victory Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 7 Tumbler (Bet Now: $4.80) faces her toughest test to date here, but I have to side with her here given her explosiveness. She really had no right to win first up at Doomben given they went very slowly in front yet she rounded them up late with a devastating turn of foot to win and run a tick over 32 for her final 600m. Always stated she is blacktype, but she could well be a Group l horse, like the Tatts Tiara. Very keen to see if she can hold her own.
Big Danger: 1 Takedown (Bet Now: $3.40) was in need of the run when resuming in the Hall Mark, plus he had the big weight and was on the shifty track. Yep, he was always a risk there and so it proved. He will be much better here on top of the ground, back to WFA and perhaps map favours points to him bouncing back hard.
Long Shot: 6 Miss Cover Girl (Bet Now: $13.00) is the Tatts Tiara winner from last year who was okay without setting the world on fire in four runs during the Summer Carnival. The Winter is when she really comes into her own and she looks spot on off the back of a very nice trial effort at Deagon behind Madotti. Goes like a bomb fresh, just needs a bit of give in the track.
Race Seven (15:07) : Ascot Green Gunsynd Classic 1600m:
Back Me: 1 Dreams Aplenty (Bet Now: $2.00) has been given three weeks off since the gutbuster that was the Toowoomba Guineas (1625m) where she did a power of work on speed yet still found under Tiff Brooker for a narrow but gritty win. Given the lack of depth engaged here, she should be a clear odds on pop and she just wins I think.
Big Danger: 4 Violate (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Victorian visitor for the Brent Stanley camp who had a two run Sydney raid, and was okay in both outings, the latest in the Frank Packer behind Mongolan Wolf. Back to the mile is okay I think, Zahra rides and he certainly has the quality to beat these. Can he put it all together?
Long Shot: 5 Realing (Bet Now: $10.00) could be the improver here at odds. Resumed over 1350m at Doomben a fortnight back and never looked like winning but he stuck on well and was good to the line late behind the talented Deep Image. Up to the mile second up looks perfect and appears on track for a Derby prep.
Race Eight (16:23) : BRC Membership Plate (Class 6) 1300m:
Back Me: 9 Mystic Opal (Bet Now: $4.20) is an up and coming mare that is first up here for the Chris Anderson yard. Really came of age in the Spring/Summer with a number of impressive efforts, and gave hints that she could develop into a Stakes class horse. Trialled up sensationally behind Madotti at Deagon and the word from the stable is that she has come back a different horse; A better horse.
Big Danger: 3 Trubia (Bet Now: $10.00) faces D-Day here. He has always been touted as a Stakes horse, even a Stradbroke horse, so he has to be winning here, or least going very close. Resumed in the Weetwood where he was hard in the market and though he didn’t receive much luck on the turn, his effort in the straight was just fair. On his best form, he beats these. I just want to watch.
Long Shot: 14 I’m Belucci (Bet Now: $19.00) is the big watch horse. High class four year old that resumes for Desleigh Forster after 10 months off the track. Hasn’t raced since finishing behind Eagle Way in the QLD Derby last year. Resumes here with no public trials, but given he good he is, he has to be respected fresh. Definitely watch the market and see what it does.
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BEST BET: Race Six Number 7 Tumbler
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 1 Dreams Aplenty
VALUE: Race One Number 5 Colinelle
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 3, 6, 8, 14
Leg Two: 7
Leg Three: 1
Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 13, 14
$50 Investment= 178.57% of the dividend if successful
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