29/9/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, Moir Stakes night

The Moonee Valley night racing season kicks off this Friday where it is Moir Stakes Night. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Moir Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Moir Stakes

11 Boognish (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks the one to beat. Clarken/O’Shea trained mare that was 1200m to 1500m when racing two weeks ago at Morphettvile where she led and was part of a battle on speed, where others dropped out and didn’t handle the heat whereas she did and was only nabbed late. Has that run under the belt, which should hold her in good stead for this assignment.

9 Delicious Tycoon (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should be around the mark for Matt Laurie and is a key threat. She was on speed throughout last time at the Sandown mile and tried her guts out but couldn’t quite get there when second to Rick’s Cafe. That run was on Aug 30 so around a month between runs is interesting, but she does strike a winnable race.

3 Rambler Rebel (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a two time winner at The Valley and he drops a mile in grade/depth. Latest run came on Feehan Day over the mile here when finding them a bit sharp, finishing down the track behind Ain’tnodeeldun. 70 grade looks his go in life so if he can find somewhere near his best, he can certainly take this out.

3 Brave Mead (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a colt I have plenty of time for and confident he can take this out. He resumed in the McKenzie when back early before trying to make a sustained run but that effort just told late behind Steparty but credit to him for sticking on as well as he did. This looks a significant drop in depth and with better luck in transit, he’ll take a power of beating.

5 Armed Forces (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands some level of respect. Chris Waller trains this colt, who resumed a few weeks ago in the McKenzie at this track/distance where he seemed to not handle the track but was okay late when balanced up in the straight behind Steparty, who won well last Saturday to frank the form. Worked well here on Monday and has good upside to come.

2 Maharba (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is dangerous with his best. Grahame Begg trained three year old that resumed in the Poseidon down the straight at Flemington and just looked in need of the run when down the track behind Archo Nacho. Fitter and up to 1200m looks a much better set up and off his 2YO form, he’s good enough to threaten.

2 Maotai (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks extremely hard to beat back to this grade. Annabel trains this gelding, who resumed three weeks ago over 1100m at Rosehill where he paraded like he would need the run and that’s how it panned out when beaten 3.5L by Red Card. Much better set up this time around and with a more positive ride, he can take this out.

9 Sandpaper (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a son of Snitzel for James Cummings that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since the Brisbane Winter Carnival when a closing fifth in the Gunsynd behind potential Group l horse in Rediener. He has looked strong in a couple of Sydney trials to get ready for the return and maps to get an ideal run in transit.

8 Ranting (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is sneaky flying for Nick Ryan and rates as a key winning chance. He has been kept on ice, having not raced since August 5 when really catching the eye late down the Flemington straight behind Benedetta. The break between runs I find interesting but he maps to get a sweet run in transit and gets B Shinn aboard.

Early speed, 955m, gate one…it’s an ideal set up for 1 Unflinching (Bet Now:  $SP.00), who resumes for Team Freedman and he does love the 955m here being a five time winner here. He hasn’t raced since May 6 when placing at Sandown over 1000m behind Pintoff but struggled at 1000m on wet ground. This looks his A1 set up and should he hold the front, I think he’ll be winning.

7 Little Miss Kubi (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can take this out for sure. Cliff Brown trained mare that has been pretty good in two runs back from a break. Did more than enough fresh in the Carlyon behind Acromantula before going to the Flemington straight when close up in defeat, far from disgraced behind Our Last Cash. Third up, so hard fit now and will be strong at the end.

10 Shirshov (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an interesting runner. He resumes for Julien Welsh after being with Gary Clarke in Darwin, where he was being prepped up for the Palmerston Sprint but something went amiss so he’s with Welsh. He’s a very sharp sprinter when right and is drawn to get a suck run in transit in the first few. Dangerous at odds.

I don’t see why 8 Verdad (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can’t measure up. Not sure he beat a great deal on debut at Bendigo but it was the manner in which he put them away that really impressed me, going through his gears and he was quite dominant, eased down late. Overall time was fast and he’ll have no issue with 1600m. I think in a thin edition of this race, he only runs well.

4 Mojave Desert (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness for Chris Waller. He has had two runs back from a break, both at 1400m. Latest came at Flemington when just off the speed and presented to win but couldn’t quite finish it off behind Griff. Racing like a mile will suit, which he gets here, and the depth isn’t strong.

6 King Of Fighters (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is bursting to win a race for Price/Kent. This three year old comes through the Exford at Flemington, won by Griff. He was tardy away and forced to settle near last in the run but he rocketed to the line late in a really good effort behind the Maher/Eustace horse. Off that, 1600m is fine, and with a clean jump, he can settle closer and still be effective.

No prizes for finding 8 Amelia’s Jewel (Bet Now:  $SP.00). Star mare for Simon Miller that won with such arrogance first up at Flemington in the Let’s Elope, winning like it was a barrier trial and had plenty of improvement to come. Her piece of work here on Monday was the standout of the morning and seemingly handled the track fine. Good luck beating her.

I am confident 2 Deny Knowledge (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will run top three. Big win first up here before going to the Feehan where she copped serious heat on speed and was entitled to finish last but actually did a remarkable job to be beaten only five lengths. She’ll lead these up comfortably and that will likely be the A1 spot for the meeting.

7 Thought Provoking (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Price/Kent trained mare that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since the Adelaide Carnival when too good in the Centaurea over 2000m. Worked well here on Monday and does have an on speed racing style if she’s ready to go. Definite first four contender.

It’s hard to get away from star Kiwi mare 7 Imperatriz (Bet Now:  $SP.00). She resumed with a bang in the McEwen, giving them a start and a beating, with her turn of foot being absolutely stunning the last 200m in drawing clear to spank her rivals. Stays at 1000m but I think she only has to run up to that first up effort to be winning again. Clearly the one to beat.

8 Asfoora (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can put her name in the spotlight for The Everest with a win here. Henry Dwyer trained mare that was a sharp winner fresh at Caulfield in the Heath 1100m, sitting outside the speed and was trucking before being clicked up late and she won with plenty in hand. Super piece of work here on Monday, I think she’s here to rock and roll, make a statement and secure an Everest slot.

The potential is there for them to go silly in front. It will set up for something to launch late… 2 The Inferno (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has been an absolute pain to follow, but he’s sucked me in again with his recent Mornington jumpout. Gee he looked sharp albeit he one home, he was under a hold and was pretty much in front soon after the post. Can’t back him to win but I’ll have something on him to place.

There is enough body of work from 3 Lazzago (Bet Now:  $SP.00) to say that short course racing is her go in life so 1200m here I do like. Several weeks between runs since contesting the Furious where she just found the 1200m at that level bridge too far when down the track behind impressive winner Tiz Invincible. Like her back in grade and the depth isn’t as deep overall, so I think she can run an improved race.

1 Skirt The Law (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is third up from a break and should just about be at peak fitness. Just missed out on the win fresh in the Quezette before going to the Cap D’Antibes where she was good late again when third to Shesallshenanigans in a tidy effort. Like her up to 1200m and she should be hard fit now. With runs on the board, she rates highly.

11 Zourion (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is an interesting runner. Kiwi filly that makes her Australian debut for Mark Walker after winning 2/2 back home in NZ and each time she looked impressive. The gate makes things very tricky but if they go silly in front, look for her to be launching late. I think she’ll have the flashing light from a Thousand Guineas perspective.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 8 Amelia’s Jewel

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 7 Imperatriz

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 3 Lazzago

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 4, 6, 8, 11

Leg Two: 8

Leg Three: 7

Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 10, 11

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