29/8/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Memsie Stakes day

Group l racing returns to Melbourne this Saturday at Caulfield with the Memsie Stakes (1400m) attracting a quality field. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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On paper, I was against him, but with it now being a field of five, the best turn of foot will win the race and that clearly lies with 5 Persan (Bet Now: $2.35 TOP ODDS). I was against him originally because the overall form around him was a bit suspect, he was five weeks between runs, and taking on older horses for the first time, but now a field of five, he won’t be far off them and the turn of foot he has is superior to anything else engaged.

4 Tavirun (Bet Now: $3.40 TOP ODDS) is a Busuttin/Young trained galloper that will put himself on speed and give himself every chance. Sat on what was a strong speed at the Valley a few weeks back and booted for home on the turn, looking the winner, but couldn’t sustain in and paddled late to run third to Mahamedeis. He’ll give a sight and if the track pattern suits leaders, he comes right into play.

1 Exemplar (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is on trial for the Bart Cummings. I thought he was going down the Hurdles path, but he surprised with a win at Flemington two back, then proved it was no fluke with a dominant all the way win at Flemington. Can he measure up to a Bart Cummings? I’m saying no, but can take this out and make it three on the bounce.

1 Windstorm (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS) is another of these Bob Peters runners that looks very exciting and like Showmanship, is one potentially heading towards an Everest/Golden Eagle path. He brings with him some outstanding times in WA, clocking late splits of a Stakes class horse. Draw looks tricky, but Pike can sit back and slice his way through, and he’s got the finale of a really good horse. Hopefully can confirm that here.

Fresh legs is the key to 11 Express Pass (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) it seems because that is when he races best. Resumed around a month back at Bendigo and produced a brilliant finale from off the speed to get up and nab Acumen near the line. Loved the way he went in a tick over jumpout here last week and the speed in front, he’ll get back and launch late.

14 The Closer (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) can bounce back here for me. Was unwanted in betting when resuming over 1000m here two weeks ago but gee if you were on, apologies for bringing up the nightmare. She should have fought the finish out but just had no luck at all and pretty much went around like it was a barrier trial. Convinced she’s going well and up to 1100m, fitter, she can win.

Hoping for a good tempo so that 14 Affair To Remember (Bet Now: $3.90 TOP ODDS) can finish. Been a big fan of this girl for over 12 months and I think this is the prep where she can get a blacktype win next to her name. Close up third in the SA Oaks last start before being spelled, so the quality is there, and she looked to be jogging in a recent St Arnaud trial win.

2 Laburnum (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is a James Cummings trained mare that is three weeks between runs since attempting to lead throughout at Flemington against the boys. Gave a really good kick in front but when she did that, the run presented for Coming Around and he was able to wear her down. Back to Mares grade, hard to beat.

9 El Questro (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) is suited back to Mares grade for the Alison Sheehan camp. Impressive winner two back at Flemington before having a mini freshen up and tackling the boys here a fortnight back where she was far from disgraced in defeat behind Showmanship. Now back to Mares grade, hard fit, racing well, a definite chance.

I think 7 I Am Superman (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) is one of the better gambles on the program. Five year old for Team Snowden that only goes on dry ground, so that’s the set up here will get here and is potentially on trial for a race like the Sir Rupert Clarke. Trials in Sydney have been quite good but going back to his Irish form, he loved racing anti clockwise, so think this is good placement.

10 Ruban Bleu (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) is racing really well for the Hayes/Dabernig team. Had a three week freshen up prior to racing at this track/distance a fortnight back and closed off strongly late between runners when fourth to impressive winner Showmanship. Harder here, but is in well after the claim and tends to save his best for Caulfield.

2 Oceanex (Bet Now: $19.00 TOP ODDS) begins her Melbourne Cup campaign here and could be a sneaky first four chance. Hasn’t raced since securing a spot in the final 24 for the race that stops a nation by winning the Andrew Ramsden, beating the highly rated King Of Leogrance. Can pull out a decent run and thought she went well enough in a recent jumpout.

The class of 1 Young Rascal (Bet Now: $7.00) will carry him a long way here. Formerly with William Haggas but is now with OTI and Archie Alexander with an eye towards the Cups. If he brings anything near his form from the Autumn, he just wins this. But bigger fish to fry you would assume, so that’s the query, but I’m banking on class.

7 Polly Grey (Bet Now: $3.70) is bursting to win a race for Chris Waller this time in. She was enormous in defeat at the Valley a few weeks ago, sitting no cover for a fair chunk of the race before having to chase a couple of tearaways. Eventually wore down Tavirun, but couldn’t hold out the hard fit, in form Mahamedeis. Better luck this time around and she can win.

Giving respect to 4 Al Galayel (Bet Now: $8.00). He has found winning form and is a horse who tends to save his best for the Valley. That was the scene of the win a few weeks ago over the mile here, sitting off a good speed before Melham eased wider down the side to build momentum and on the turn, it was race over. If he holds that form, he’ll go close here.

2 Superstorm (Bet Now: $7.00) is top shelf and although 1100m is short of his best, his class just about gets him home. Potentially on an Everest/Golden Eagle path so would want to impress here. Looks a Group l winner in waiting and did run so well in the All Star Mile when a close up second to stablemate Regal Power. I’m sure the stable will have him ready.

6 Garner (Bet Now: $5.50) is an absolute beauty for the Gordon Richards team that resumes. Hasn’t raced since the Euclase during the Adelaide Carnival where he was chasing from a fair way out and battled away really well when a narrow second to Xilong. Looked to move very well between races a couple of weeks ago in Adelaide alongside Gytrash and is a winner at the track.

If they overdo it in front, 5 Bold Star (Bet Now: $14.00) can finish over the top. Stablemate of Garner that is probably a couple of lengths below him re class, but keep in mind he was only three lengths off Pippie in an Oakleigh Plate, so he does have quality and in that piece of work in Adelaide, he was moving nicely himself. Williams on a positive as well.

Good test here for 10 Immortal Love (Bet Now: $7.50) to see where he is at, but I reckon he’s up to this level and more. It’s easy to get carried away with off season form, but he was super impressive in two runs, each time resulting in wins, including a spank job over 1400m at Flemington. Two jumpouts to get ready, the latest seeing him win. Draws soft, Froggy on…think he’s worth a bet.

1 Tagaloa (Bet Now: $3.60) can resume with a win. Classy colt for the Busuttin/Young team that resumes, having not raced since the Golden Slipper when far from disgraced in defeat behind another top class colt, Farnan. Jumped out last week at Cranbourne and went like a jet in leading throughout. If he’s anywhere near right, he wins.

I’m interested in 6 Rathlin (Bet Now: $21.00) for the Maher/Eustace team. He’s a good colt who contested the A1 races during the Autumn, finishing midfield in the Blue Diamond before finishing down the track in the Slipper. The wet track is a query, because his trial on wet ground in Sydney was ordinary, but looked better in a Caulfield jumpout last Tuesday, so firmer the better.

14 Game Keeper (Bet Now: $3.50) looks an ideal candidate for a race like the Toorak/Cantala but the stable are pinning him as a Caulfield Cup horse so keen to see how he goes here. Resumed in the Aurie’s Star three weeks ago at Flemington in what was a very slowly run race, but loved the way he closed off when third to Home Of The Brave. Fitter, eats up 1700m, upside…really keen on his chances.

Nick Ryan has done an amazing job with 8 Sirrconi (Bet Now: $3.30). Most thought the Winter Championship win was a bit of a fluke, and after his down the track effort behind Romancer next start, that looked correct, but he then went to the PB Lawrence and ran out of his skin, beaten narrowly by Savatiano. Hard fit, up to 1700m, he’ll take some beating.

3 Constantinople (Bet Now: $20.00) is a fascinating runner. Connections forked out a solid seven figure sum to get him for the Cups last year. Good case that he should have won the Caulfield Cup but since then, he’s been awful, so much so that he’s been gelded. Recent jumpout was solid enough and we know his best would see him spank these.

I think he would be better suited in a race like the Sir Rupert Clarke, a Handicap, but this isn’t a strong WFA race and 7 Behemoth (Bet Now: $3.80) gets a golden chance to breakthrough at the highest level. He resumed in the Spring Stakes at Morphettville and admittedly the race was set up for him, but I just loved the way he put them away in a couple of strides. Willow has won on him previously and 1400m looks ideal.

I’m anticipating a much better run from 1 Regal Power (Bet Now: $14.00). On face value, he was plain in the PB Lawrence, but have to keep in mind he was first up, back, wide, against the track pattern, and those out the back had no hope given the mid race anchor drop. Begood Toya Mother won’t slow these up I dare say, so it’ll be truly run, and that will be perfect for the All Star Mile winner.

6 Mr Quickie (Bet Now: $19.00) saves his best for Caulfield and now Peter Moody has him, I’m anticipating a big run fresh. The quality is there under the hood. He showed that early on in the Spring last year but since then, the form has tapered off. His three jumpouts indicate he’s ready to go fresh and draws to get a good run off the genuine speed.

Loving Gaby is the best four year old mare in Australia, but by the end of the Spring, 1 Rubisaki (Bet Now: $2.45) could well have that title, and who knows, maybe even be in the mix for the Everest/Golden Eagle. She was outstanding during the Autumn, producing a picket fence next to her name with some beautiful placement by the stable. Recent Tatura jumpout was very good, she flies fresh and again, isn’t going out of her lane, sticking to the Mares races.

12 Bless Her (Bet Now: $6.00) deserves a crack at blacktype. Shea Eden has done a fab job with this mare, placing her beautifully and she’s gone through her grades impressively. Loved the way she put them away to win at Caulfield two weeks ago and if she’s ever going to try and snare some blacktype, this looks the perfect assignment.

I’m very wary of 3 Madam Rouge (Bet Now: $10.00) for Chris Waller. Quality mare who hasn’t raced since the Stradbroke when beating all bar Tyzone in a thrilling finish, arguably her best ever chance to snare a major. Has some residual fitness under the belt and was given a quiet time in her trial a couple of weeks back. Good fresh horse as well so she’s hard to beat.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 1 Windstorm

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 14 Game Keeper

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 10 Immortal Love

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 2, 6, 7, 10

Leg Two: 14

Leg Three: 1, 6, 7, 13

Leg Four: 1, 3, 11, 12

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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