1/4/2025 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Tancred Stakes day

Ten races will be run and won at Rosehill on Tuesday for Tancred Stakes Day which was moved from Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (10) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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4 So Good So Cool (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given respect off the back of his Midway win two weeks ago here where he gave them a start and a beating to win and win well. He has promised to be a nice horse and off that return, he has to be rated as one of the hardest to beat.

10 Tenderize (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has versatility re racing pattern and I think 1300m is okay for him. He attempted to lead throughout here two weeks back and gave a strong kick from the front but just couldn’t quite see it through when fifth to So Good So Cool. Key threat.

19 Sumo Star (Bet Now:  $SP.00) would be better suited at the Provincials but he is down in the weights and swims. He ran over 1300m at Hawkesbury last time when off speed and worked home with purpose when a close up second to Starboard. Not sure he wins, but is one for exotics.

I think the bet here is clearly 3 Sanctified (Bet Now:  $SP.00). His run in the Black Opal, a track record breaking Black Opal, was incredible, with his late splits being off the charts. D Lane booked, home track 1400m, stable like this race…he takes a power of beating.

2 Nepotism (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a good prospect and rates highly off the back of his debut in the Todman, where you can make a case to say he wins with clear air but got badly held up in the straight. I will say that form didn’t exactly stand up in the Todman but he gives every indication of loving 1400m.

11 Barbarossa (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks as though he’ll be fine at 1400m after coming through the Pago Pago where not much went right for him in the straight so while on face value, he was plain behind Skyhook, he had genuine excuses. Not sure he wins, but is a first four threat.

I don’t see why 11 Format (Bet Now:  $SP.00) can’t measure up here. I think you have to assume that the track will see no disadvantage leading. He smashed the clock relative to the class at Kembla last time over 2400m and he does look a horse who will just keep running.

1 Firm Agreement (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will appreciate getting to 2000m. He comes through the Randwick Guineas from three weeks ago where he got back and was chasing from the outset, just feeling the pinch late and perhaps a touch of second up syndrome? Hard fit now and getting to 2000m, he appeals.

7 Tenbury Wells (Bet Now:  $SP.00) got way too keen with the Blinkers in the Randwick Guineas three weeks back. He tore along in front, running hard, and was a beaten horse around 600m out when tiring late to finish down the track behind Linebacker. Hard fit now, 2000m, and if he can relax, he’s dangerous with his best.

8 Hezashocka (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks suited up to 2000m after resuming over 1500m in the Doncaster Prelude two weeks ago when the race shape was against him but I didn’t mind the way he found the line late in the piece. Better set up here and the rain forecast…that makes him extremely hard to beat, especially with the rain forecast.

All things being equal, 1 Ceowulf (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should win. But, this isn’t a Grand Final, he has 59.5kg and will potentially be on a bog. He does bring the A1 form, clearly, and has thrived on the back up before. Class will carry him a long way.

13 Medatsu (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is the key threat. He ran fourth to Kings Valley at Randwick last time out, getting a fair way out of his ground but I really liked the way he closed off late in the piece. If he’s within range, he has the finale to be dangerous.

4 Scarlet Oak (Bet Now:  $SP.00) does seem to thrive on wet ground so with that in mind, and J Mac on, she’s on top. She comes through the Coolmore where she wasn’t 100% happy on the firm surface so forgive and forget the run. First up run was good and with a better set up here, she takes beating.

8 Ausbred Flirt (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is four weeks between runs for Brad Widdup since resuming in the Guy Walter where it was pretty much a barrier trial for her, won by Amelia’s Jewel. Brings fresh legs and does have a touch of quality about her. She can win for sure.

5 Lekvarte (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate getting to 1500m after resuming over 1200m in the Wenona Girl three weeks back. She got to last in the run and was a never a factor, finding them too sharp. The rise to 1500m is ideal and her best is clearly good enough.

1 Treasurethe Moment (Bet Now:  $SP.00) picks herself and really, all things being equal, if she handles racing the Sydney way, she’s a genuine $1.10 chance. She has come back in beast mode in Melbourne, with her two starts/wins being quite breathtaking. Eats up 2000m, has change up speed, can make a sustained run…it all points to her.

5 Declichy Boulevard (Bet Now:  $SP.00) has to be given another look and is to be respected after her Phar Lap effort, where she was quite good considering she was back and wide throughout yet kept finding the line against the race shape. She’s talented and if the fav is off her game, she’s there to pick up the pieces.

3 Powers Of Opal (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will appreciate 2000m. She was ridden with intent in the Phar Lap but the tempo was an absolute crawl and she just doesn’t have the sprint in the legs to go with them late in the piece behind Lazzura. Like her up in trip and nearing peak fitness, she’s a first four contender.

Gee I’d love to know what’s doing with 7 Ostraka (Bet Now:  $SP.00). If he brings his best, he should be a clear favourite IMO. Scratched last week from The Galaxy, not sure why. But he brings the A1 form and looks beautifully in at the weights, and should be fine on wet ground.

2 Mazu (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes right into play if the track does get chopped right out after rain. He was down to run in The Galaxy but was scratched and saved for this. His run in the Challenge was quite good, he maps ideally and thrives when getting his toe in.

5 Dragonstone (Bet Now:  $SP.00) comes through The Galaxy as well. He got back to near last in the run and while he was never a winning threat, he did make up some headway albeit was well held. Short course specialist who can run an improved race at odds.

I have been hot on 2 Vauban (Bet Now:  $SP.00) for this race for a couple of months and see no reason to drop off. He was an absolute mess in the yard when resuming in the Sky High, even on a normal day, but he gave them a start and a beating off a moderate speed to win and win well. Fitter, 2400m, cooler day, WFA no issue, form is ticked off with Lindermann running super in the Ranvet…good luck beating him.

1 Dubai Honour (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is back down under after dominating Sydney a couple of years ago. He has been somewhat under a cloud as to whether he will run here, but he’s here and means business. He is an elite animal when right and does love racing on the road. His best efforts in recent times did come when winning the Ranvet and the QEll in 2023. He’ll run a beauty I am sure.

11 Warmonger (Bet Now:  $SP.00) looks to be ticking along beautifully towards the Sydney Cup. He comes through the Randwick Stakes from three weeks back where he got back off the speed but tracked into the race with purpose before angling clear and knuckled down with purpose late to run second to Alalcance, who was dominant last week in the Manion Cup. He’ll love 2400m and is a knockout hope.

The forecast for rain leans me towards 2 Amenable (Bet Now:  $SP.00). He reusmed in the Newcastle Stakes where he got back off the speed but worked home with real purpose late when second to Sandpaper. Fitter, he loves getting his toe in, rates highly for me.

4 Willaidow (Bet Now:  $SP.00) commands respect. He was a narrow second in the Ajax a fortnight back, sitting on speed throughout and was there to win but couldn’t quite get past Iowna Merc. He should get front end control and with that, takes beating I say.

10 Ducasse (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is one for exotics. He resumed with a bang, first time racing as a gelding. He then went to the Ajax where he had the suck run in transit behind the speed and was there to threaten but just whacked to the line late in the piece. Hard fit now, he commands some level of respect.

3 Green Fly (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is a Team Freedman trained gelding that resumes. He is first up, having not raced since Sep 14 at Flemington when finding a bog and couldn’t pick his feet up late in the piece behind Berkeley Square. Not a noted fresh horse but the trial work has been strong and stable is flying in Sydney.

13 Well Timed (Bet Now:  $SP.00) is using this as a lead up for the Provincial Final but he is a good horse for Kerry Parker. He was there to win when resuming at Hawkesbury but couldn’t quite get past Mahogany Girl. Nash does click with him and strikes a winnable race.

15 Danaustar (Bet Now:  $SP.00) should appreciate a rise to 1400m after resuming over 1200m at Randwick a few weeks back. The market said he’d need the run and that’s how it panned out, with the race shape not helping either behind Spring Lee. Better set up here, not dismissing him.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Treasurethemoment

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 2 Vauban

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 8 Hezashocka

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 2, 5, 7, 11

Leg Two: 2

Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5, 10

Leg Four: 3, 11, 13, 15

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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