29/12/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Gosford, Gosford Guineas day

A very strong seven race card has been set down for Gosford on Wednesday, headlined by the $200,000 Group lll Belle Of The Turf Stakes (1600m). The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Belle Of The Turf Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Belle Of The Turf Stakes

Gosford Guineas 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Gosford Guineas

I think history will repeat here via 10 Miss Sheaf (Bet Now: $3.30). Mark Newnham won this race last year with Expat, who went like a hack at the trials but the Blinkers went on and voila, she won on debut. Miss Sheaf looked very one paced in the first trial but next trial, the Blinkers went on, she led throughout, ran time and gee she was sharp. First starter, but think she’s one of the better bets on the card.

3 Twilight Affair (Bet Now: $2.40) is a WaterBott trained mare that was a betting drifter but still a short priced favourite when debuting at Kembla. Led and gave a pretty good kick but just couldn’t quite see it out and was nabbed late. That was at 1200m so I think firmer footing and back to 1100m are two big ticks.

9 Heavenly Prophet (Bet Now: $16.00) is a very interesting runner. Daughter of Divine Prophet for Team Hawkes that is on debut. She had a prep in the Winter without a run. Has had two trials this prep and has looked sold enough to the eye. Have to respect the stable with their first starters.

3 All England (Bet Now: $3.20) on top in a race I’m not really keen to get involved in due to a number of question marks about several runners. This guy is first up on a heavy track, so that in itself is a query, but his last run was a good effort on wet ground on the Kenso track at Randwick, and has trialled well leading in.

12 Transformation (Bet Now: $11.00) should appreciate firmer footing. His last couple of runs have come on wet ground at Canterbury where he has struggled to pick his feet up. He should get a firmer deck this time around and his best I think is good enough to be around the mark.

4 Ghost Hunter (Bet Now: $35.00) is a watch from a yard/market perspective. The Ron Quinton stable has been one of the worst metro stables in terms of strike rate this season, so that is the first knock, and the second trial was sluggish, but I was taken by the first trial, and he draws soft, so I think chuck him in exotics.

9 Canbya (Bet Now: $3.30) should appreciate the rise to the mile. Lovely ride from Jason Collett saw her win two back in a Hawkesbury maiden before going to Kembla where she wasn’t entirely happy on the wet track but kept chipping away when second to Rejoiced. She was a few weeks between runs so fitter and up to the mile are two big ticks.

You don’t know how good a horse is til they are beaten so I’m wary of 4 Rejoiced (Bet Now: $3.40) for Annabel Neasham, who is 2/2 to start his career. Loved the way he knuckled down to win over 1200m here on debut. Then went to 1400m at Kembla and he was impressive again in attacking the line and winning. Hard to beat if he can overcome the gate.

I doubt 10 Mo The Great (Bet Now: $26.00) wins but he is one I can entertain for wider multiples. He ran on the Beaumont track at Newcastle last start when wide no cover and battling on okay behind a horse who I think will win the 2022 Country Championship Final, Akasawa. That form reads well for this.

I’m a fan of 6 Telluride (Bet Now: $4.80) and I’m with her to bounce back. Resumed on a wet track at Canterbury and just struggled to pick up quick enough but was solid in defeat when fourth to Forzanini. Interesting she comes back to 1000m but a fast speed and firmer footing should see her run a much improved race.

1 Tudor Music (Bet Now: $4.80) is knocking on the door to win. Looked home last time out at Wyong but was nabbed on the peg by a handy horse in Toto. Searle gets another chance and with his claim, she does get in very well at the weights. Hard to beat against these.

9 Bengalla Bay (Bet Now: $14.00) is a speed demon who will look the winner for a fair chunk of the race, which was the case last time out over 900m at Newcastle where she showed brilliant toe from the outset. Just felt the pinch late when third. Not sure she wins, but one for exotics.

3 Kibosh (Bet Now: $2.60) is a beauty for John Thompson and appears to be the safe option. Resumed over 1100m at Canterbury under the lights where she was given a peach steer on speed by Nash and was hailed as the winner but Tommy Berry on Forzanina produced a 12/10 and nailed her late. Fitter, up to 1200m, hard to beat.

5 Never Second (Bet Now: $2.60) is putting together a tidy little record for Annabel Neasham. Game second at Wyong fresh before going to Kembla where she was smashed in betting late and didn’t give her supporters of moment of worry with a commanding all the way win. Hard to beat from near the speed.

11 El Cohete (Bet Now: $11.00) is third up here and should just about be at peak fitness. Forgive the last start effort at Canterbury where he was wide no cover for the trip and tired late behind Rhythmic Pulse. Gets a much better barrier this time and his best is good enough to be dangerous.

3 Bacchanalia (Bet Now: $2.70) has come back in super order for James Cummings. Made a mess of them two back at Canterbury before proving that was no fluke with a spank job of his rivals at Randwick just under three weeks ago, getting the suck run behind the speed before producing sharp change up speed and gapping his rivals. He can go on with it.

2 King Of Sparta (Bet Now: $3.30) is a quality sprinting three year old for Team Snowden that resumes. Hasn’t raced since October 9 when a game third to a Randwick specialist, Paulele, in what was a really good effort from off the speed. He wants a dry track so if he gets it, he’ll make sure the field knows he’s there.

11 Party For One (Bet Now: $11.00) is a filly for Joe Pride I have plenty of time for. Both runs back from a spell have come under the lights at Canterbury. First up she was excellent from the back before producing a brilliant finale to win last time out. From the gate, likely gets dragged back to last but will be charging at the end.

2 Brookspire (Bet Now: $1.45) has found that winning groove again and I think she can go right on with it now. She was backed as if unbeatable just under three weeks ago at Randwick and once she was able to land box seat, then get clear air at the top of the straight, it was race over and she spanked them. Confident she can beat this lot.

1 Expat (Bet Now: $5.50) won on debut at this meeting last year in the maiden. She has gone right on with it since despite a last start flop at Eagle Farm, but I am putting that down due to not handling Eagle Farm. Much better suited on a track like this, should lead and prove hard to run down.

4 So Wicked (Bet Now: $41.00) is second up here and I think can be a big improver. Market said she would need the run when resuming just under four weeks ago at Rosehill and that’s how it panned out, more so due to the race shape of it being a sit/sprint. Much better suited here and can run a much improved race.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 2 Brookspire

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 10 Miss Sheaf

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 6 Telluride

Quaddie Tips (Races Four Through To Seven):

Leg One: 1, 5, 6, 8, 9

Leg Two: 3, 5, 11, 12

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 11

Leg Four: 2

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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